2022-23 NHL team preview: Carolina Hurricanes

LAST SEASON

A bird’s-eye view of the standings progression between the Carolina Hurricanes in Years 3 and 4 of the Rod Brind’Amour era might have suggested status quo: consecutive first-place finishes and back to back seasons playing .700 hockey. But the Canes had a similar result last season with a very different team. They saw significant roster turnover between 2020-21 and 2021-22, losing top-pair defenseman Dougie Hamilton to unrestricted free agency, trading Calder Trophy finalist goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic, installing a risky new netminding tandem of Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta and taking a chance on mercurial defenseman Tony DeAngelo. General manager Don Waddell even added young center Jesperi Kotkaniemi on a controversial offer sheet, poaching him from the Montreal Canadiens.

Almost everything Waddell did seemed to work. Andersen was one of the best goaltenders in the league. DeAngelo revived his career with an excellent season while dodging any new negative press. The Canes, led by criminally underrated star Sebastian Aho and stud two-way defenseman Jaccob Slavin, continued to excel in coach Brind’Amour’s system. Carolina played lockdown defense even without Hamilton and boasted the highest penalty-killing percentage of any NHL team in 10 years.

The Canes looked ready for a deep playoff run. Then, the injury. Andersen went down with what turned out to be a season-ending torn MCL in mid-April. It cost him the playoffs. Carolina had to rely on Raanta, who also got hurt during the post-season, forcing them to start third-stringer Pyotr Kochetkov at one point. The Canes got good enough goaltending to squeak past the Boston Bruins in Round 1 but couldn’t outduel superstar stopper Igor Shesterkin in Round 2, losing a seven-game heartbreaker to the New York Rangers. Carolina went 0-6 on the road, becoming the first team in NHL history to drop six straight road games to open a postseason.

So the Canes have still not broken through in the Brind’Amour era despite winning four playoff series since he took over in 2018. For a second straight summer, they’ve undergone massive roster turnover. Will this year’s overhaul finally produce a true Stanley Cup threat?

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions
Brent Burns, D
Max Pacioretty, LW
Paul Stastny, C
Ondrej Kase, RW
Ryan Dzingel, LW
Mackenzie MacEachern, LW
Dylan Coghlan, D
William Lagesson, D
Lane Pederson, C

Departures
Vincent Trocheck, C (NYR)
Tony DeAngelo, D (Phi)
Nino Niederreiter, RW (Nsh)
Max Domi, C (Chi)
Ian Cole, D (TB)
Jose Leivo, LW (Stl)
Brendan Smith, D (NJ)
Steven Lorentz, C (SJ)

OFFENSE

The Canes are known for their defense but can score plenty, too. Shots, scoring chances, high-danger chances – name the 5-on-5 stat and the Canes ranked near the top of the league in it last season. Only the Florida Panthers had a higher expected goals per 60, and the Canes sat ninth in the NHL in goals last season.

Aho is acknowledged as a star but produces at something closer to a superstar level, ranking ninth in the league in goals and 17^th in points over the past four seasons. It may feel like Andrei Svechnikov should be further along in his development because he’s so talented, but he set career highs in goals (30), assists (37) and points (69) in 2021-22 while providing tremendous work ethic and leadership and is still only 22. A breakout into true stardom is imminent. Speaking of breakouts, Seth Jarvis was one of last season’s best stories for Carolina. He scored 17 goals as a rookie despite spending most of the year as a teenager and will be relied upon to play a major top-six role this season.

No. 2 center Vincent Trocheck and second-line winger Nino Niederreiter left in free agency, and while left winger Max Pacioretty, acquired from the Vegas Golden Knights, appeared to be a massive offseason upgrade for the forward corps, everything changed with the revelation earlier this month that he’d torn his achilles tendon and would miss at least six months recovering. In addition to Jarvis continuing to progress, then, Carolina desperately needs more from two other young forwards: Martin Necas, who regressed significantly last season, and Kotkaniemi, who must justify the inexplicable eight-year extension at a $4.82 million AAV he scored in March. That’s a lot for someone who has never topped 12 goals or 34 points in a season. If he can’t fill Trocheck’s void as the No. 2 center, newly acquired UFA Paul Stastny will get a look in that spot. He’s likely the short-term answer there, giving Kotkaniemi more time to develop.

DEFENSE

Carolina’s biggest defensive addition of the summer will actually augment its offense. After trading DeAngelo’s rights to the Philadelphia Flyers rather than re-sign him after his resurgent season, Carolina made a quintessential win-now trade to land defenseman Brent Burns, 37, from the San Jose Sharks. He’s no longer Norris Trophy caliber but still brings excellent scoring acumen from the right side, so he’ll take the power-play torch from DeAngelo, who took it from Hamilton.

Burns won’t need to be elite without the puck because his teammates have that covered. Led by Slavin’s all-world shutdown game and third-line center Jordan Staal being deployed against opponents’ top forwards, Carolina plays exemplary defense. It allowed the fewest goals in the NHL last season and had the No. 1 penalty kill. No team allowed fewer 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60, and the Canes surrendered the third-fewest shots on goal and fourth-fewest scoring chances, too, albeit they were merely average at preventing high-danger chances.

It’s unlikely Carolina’s stingy identity changes, especially with another defensively conscientious player, right winger Ondrej Kase, joining the forward group. Adding Stastny helps, too, as it means Staal can maintain his checking role and not have to shoulder too much offensive responsibility.

GOALTENDING

Andersen entered 2021-22 coming off an injury-plagued season that had cost him his starting job with the Toronto Maple Leafs, while injuries had followed Raanta his entire career. Yet Waddell bet on that veteran tandem rather than pay $3.5 million annually to Nedeljkovic, who had just led the NHL in goal-against average and save percentage as a rookie.

Naturally…the decision worked out beautifully for Carolina? Yes, somehow. Andersen won 35 games, sat second in the NHL in GAA and SV% and finished fourth in the Vezina Trophy vote. Raanta was one of the league’s better backups. One benefit of seeing both netminders banged up in the postseason: it established that Kochetkov is a rock-solid No. 3. He’ll be up to the job if and when Andersen and Raanta get nicked up again.

COACHING

Pretty much to a man, the Hurricanes’ players rave about playing for Brind’Amour, who won the 2020-21 Jack Adams Award as coach of the year. ‘Rod the Bod,’ who won two Selke Trophies and a Stanley Cup in his 1,484-game playing career, still carries his famous chiselled physique, and that probably adds to his relatability as a coach. The players still feel like he’s one of them, and they’re willing to run through a wall for him. Under his tutelage, everyone forechecks tenaciously and defends diligently. He holds a .653 points percentage in his first four seasons as a bench boss. Among coaches with at least 250 games, that’s the highest mark in NHL history of anyone not named Scotty Bowman.

ROOKIES

As mentioned before, Kochetkov will see NHL action this year even as Carolina’s No. 3 netminder. The Canes have some intriguing blueline prospects coming down the pipe, from Scott Morrow to Aleksi Heimosalmi to Ronan Seeley, but the most likely rookie splash this season comes up front. With Carolina’s center depth in question, keep an eye on Jack Drury, a 2018 second-round pick. He debuted in the NHL with two goals in two games last season and will push to open 2022-23 as a full-time Hurricane. He’s simply a winner. Two seasons ago, he played on the Swedish League champion Vaxjo. Last season, he won a Calder Cup with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves after lighting it up with 24 points in 18 postseason games. The Stastny signing does create a ripple effect that could push Drury down the lineup, however. He’ll have to win a job rather than open camp locked in as an NHL starter.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. How much will Max Pacioretty help this year? Achilles injuries are no joke. A six-month recovery timeline would have ‘Patches’ returning after the All-Star break in February, give or take, but that’s a rather optimistic projection for a player who will be 34 years old by then and has landed on the injured list repeatedly in recent seasons. Once back, will Pacioretty, a powerful skater, still be his usual explosive self? If he is, he’ll massively upgrade Carolina’s forward group as a five-time 30-goal scorer who loves to shoot the puck. He’s exactly what Carolina needs…if he’s the same Pacioretty.

2. Does Jake Gardiner have anything left? Gardiner has been off the hockey grid thanks to hip and back surgeries that cost him the entire 2021-22 campaign. As of June 2022, however, he’s been medically cleared to resume playing after not suiting up since May 2021. With Pacioretty going on LTIR, the rumored Gardiner buyout didn’t happen. At 32, can he still assist the Canes’ defense as a puck-mover on a bottom pair? They’re not as deep outside the top four as they have been in the past, so a healthy Gardiner could earn a real role as a No. 6 or 7 D-man.

3. Who succeeds Vincent Trocheck as the No. 2 center? I’ve mentioned it multiple times already, but it really is the defining question of Carolina’s season, so I have to bring it up again. Can Stastny still maintain a good enough standard to fill that gig given he turns 37 later this year? If Kotkaniemi can’t establish himself in the role, should Necas or Jarvis get a look? Each was drafted as a center. If no one can ascend to that crucial spot, will Waddell have to shop for a rental pivot at the 2023 trade deadline?

PREDICTION

The Hurricanes have established themselves as one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and that shouldn’t change this season. They remain an elite defensive team and a solidly above-average offensive team. But when will they break through and finally push for a Cup? It could happen this season but only if some of their young forwards bust out – and if Pacioretty is fully healthy in time for the playoffs.

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