High Noon 2025: Ranking the NHL’s top 50 forwards
When the NHL’s best players are debated, there are no rules. No goal posts. Anything goes.
Golf, tennis, and other individual sports systemically rank their athletes. Scottie Scheffler is men’s golf’s World Number 1, a public declaration of his place in the sport. But team sports like hockey don’t go there — it’s the name on the front of the sweater that matters, not the back, remember?
How boring…
From this lack of a proper player hierarchy, the High Noon ranking system was born. Using adjusted point shares as a proxy for value, individual players can be ranked in an equitable way. The approach minimizes bias and eliminates reputational noise. The High Noon rankings are designed to offer a living timeline of the NHL’s best players by position each offseason.
Can Connor McDavid hold off an imposing field to remain #1 for a sixth consecutive year? Did Auston Matthews’ injury-plagued season wreck his ranking? How high did Nick Suzuki rise after a breakout year? We’re ranking the top 50 forwards, debating and looking back on the #1 spot, exploring some of the surprise shifts, and identifying the biggest movers as we dive into the NHL’s positional pecking order.
Part one of our three-part series by position: the top 50 forwards in the NHL today.
🕛 High Noon Background
We’ll start with a brief refresh of the methodology. Originally a tool to guide Hall of Fame debates, you can read about High Noon’s mechanics in this original post. It uses a weighted three-year average: 2024-25 counts 50% of a player’s score; 2023-24 gets one-third (33%); 2022-23 is one-sixth (17%). The split allows a long-range view of performance. One great season won’t rank a player among the game’s elite.
In previous versions, a player needed to participate in three seasons to be eligible. That’s since changed. Like other sports, rookies now enter the rankings in their debut seasons and gradually build a score, which becomes complete after three full seasons. Here is some additional background on the rankings:
- By leveraging point shares, the High Noon system is driven by box score stats, not advanced data. The rankings reflect production over process.
- The methodology does not project. The rankings cover what a player has done, not what they might do. If a 23-year-old and 36-year-old perform similarly over three seasons, they will rank similarly.
- Goals are more valuable than assists, having a more direct impact on scoring overall.
- Players are broadly assigned credit for a team’s defense using ice time and team-relative plus-minus.
- Playoffs aren’t factored — post-season opportunities being too arbitrary and unique for inclusion.
- Players that haven’t played half the schedule each of the last three seasons are included but are penalized. Each season’s divisor is 41 games. As was the case with the rise and fall of Tiger Woods the last 30 years, players missing significant time must rebuild their scores.
The High Noon system is meant to be a simplified accounting of performance, delivering results empirically to reduce subjectivity. The ranking offers a statistical middle ground between the one-dimensional view of the NHL scoring race and highly contextualized analytics.
👑 The Top 50
How to Read the Rankings: David Pastrnak’s score in the High Noon system below is 12.0, ranking him the NHL’s #6 forward in 2025. The Change column (-1) shows his drop from #5 to #6 since last summer. Pastrnak’s career peak — his High Noon — is #2, the highest he’s been ranked previously (2020).
1️⃣ Who’s #1?
The king is dead. Long live, Connor McDavid.
Kidding, of course. New #1 Leon Draisaitl leads his teammate by decimals — his score of 13.34 edges McDavid’s (13.26). A virtual tie. But the shift at the top reveals how dominant Draisaitl has been in his captain’s formidable shadow. He missed 11 games yet still coasted to the Rocket Richard Trophy by seven goals and finished third in points (106). His 82-game pace? 60 goals, 62 assists, 122 points. Reaching the High Noon pinnacle of #1 caps an impressive seven-year run for Draisaitl: #10, #4, #2, #3, #2, #6, #1. For good measure, he finished sixth in Selke voting and was runner-up for the Hart.
Ranking #2 is hardly an indictment of McDavid, who matched Draisaitl’s point pace. But his jaw-dropping 2022-23 season (64 goals, 153 points) has faded further into the rearview mirror. McDavid’s averaged just 29 goals the past two seasons as his shots on goal rate has fallen significantly. At #3, Nathan MacKinnon is extremely close to Edmonton‘s two-headed monster at 13.1 — his shot at his first #1 ranking remains highly gettable in 2026. Nikita Kucherov (12.8), fresh off back-to-back scoring titles, sits comfortably at #4, rounding out a clear-cut quartet at the top.
High Noon: Top 3 Forwards, Last 15 Years
| Year | #1 (# of times) | #2 | #3 |
| 2011 | Crosby (1) | Ovechkin | Sedin, D. |
| 2012 | Crosby (2) | Stamkos | Malkin |
| 2013 | Crosby (3) | Stamkos | Toews |
| 2014 | Crosby (4) | Stamkos | Malkin |
| 2015 | Crosby (5) | Ovechkin | Kane |
| 2016 | Kane | Ovechkin | Crosby |
| 2017 | Crosby (6) | Kane | Malkin |
| 2018 | Malkin | Marchand | McDavid |
| 2019 | Kucherov | McDavid | Marchand |
| 2020 | McDavid (1) | Pastrnak | Kucherov |
| 2021 | McDavid (2) | Draisaitl | Marchand |
| 2022 | McDavid (3) | Matthews | Draisaitl |
| 2023 | McDavid (4) | Draisaitl | MacKinnon |
| 2024 | McDavid (5) | MacKinnon | Matthews |
| 2025 | Draisaitl | McDavid | MacKinnon |
⬆️ Too High?
Jack Hughes (#9), New Jersey: There’s an element of frustration around Hughes’ inability to stay in the lineup. He’s averaged just 63 games since 2021-22 and wasn’t available for the Devils’ postseason cameo last spring. But Hughes has been a force: a 40 goal, 98-point pace spanning the last four seasons. That’s 12th and 14th, respectively, league-wide. The franchise is ready to build on last year’s 91-point effort, and a healthy Hughes is mission critical.
Alex Ovechkin (#18), Washington: By shattering the career goals record, the feat managed to overshadow Ovechkin’s nightly exploits last season. A 56-goal pace? Under immense pressure? In a season disrupted by a broken fibula? At 39 years old? After slipping to 31 goals the previous year? Sure, he’s a defensive liability and no one is taking him 18th in a forward draft at his age. But scoring goals is constantly called the hardest thing to do in hockey — Ovechkin was second to Draisaitl in goals per game last season. Fifteen years after he last led these rankings (2008 to 2010), Ovechkin improbably leaps 16 spots to #18.
Jason Robertson (#21), Dallas: Robertson’s monster 2022-23 featuring 46 goals and 109 points is still helping to support his ranking — he’d be #36 based on last season in isolation. But sleep on Robertson all you want. He’s averaged 37 goals and 90 points the last three seasons as an elite defensive player on an elite defensive team. He remains one of hockey’s most underappreciated talents.
⬇️ Too Low?
Sidney Crosby (#20), Pittsburgh: That’s 19 years ranked in the top 20 forwards for Crosby — the most by a post-expansion forward. Ovechkin (17 times), Wayne Gretzky (15), and Joe Sakic (15) are next closest among ageless wonders. Reputationally, Crosby’s still considered a top-10 forward. But his modest dip from #14 to #20 in High Noon is twofold: a drop in goals from 42 to 33 and declining defensive impact as the catalyst of a one-line team desperate for offense.
Aleksander Barkov (#24), Florida: Barkov’s control of the game has been on full display as the fearless leader of consecutive Stanley Cup winners. He’s ranked between #8 and #27 for nine straight years now. However, by sticking to traditional stats, the methodology won’t capture Barkov’s contributions entirely. While he tilts the ice via advanced metrics, Barkov’s averaged 22 goals and 76 points in 69 games over the last three seasons. That’s solid, but not exceptional production.
Brandon Hagel (#29), Tampa Bay: What does a guy have to do crack the top 25? Hagel netted 90 points, led Lightning forwards in plus-minus (+33), and was named a second-team All-Star at left wing by the PHWA. That’s without a single power play goal. By taking a weighted three-year view of performance, Hagel will need to maintain his strong play to further elevate his ranking — he’d never topped 30 goals or 75 points previously.
📈 Trending Up
- Five Biggest Jumps Into the Top 50:
- Five Biggest Jumps Into the Top 100:
📉 Trending Down
- Ten Biggest Drops Among Last Year’s Top 100:
- 1. Ryan Hartman, Minnesota: -75 spots (from #94 to #169)
- 2. Gustav Nyquist, Winnipeg: -74 spots (from #100 to #174)
- 3. Vladimir Tarasenko, Minnesota: -69 spots (from #79 to #148)
- 4. Chris Kreider, Anaheim: -57 spots (from #29 to #86)
- 5. Jeff Skinner, San Jose: -49 spots (from #65 to #114)
- 6. Mika Zibanejad, NY Rangers: -44 spots (from #28 to #72)
- 7. Steven Stamkos, Nashville: -43 spots (from #25 to #68)
- 8. Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh: -33 spots (from #58 to #91)
- T9. Carter Verhaeghe, Florida: -31 spots (from #31 to #62)
- T9. Pavel Zacha, Boston: -31 spots (from #95 to #126)
⏳ Young Gun Watch
Players don’t earn a full High Noon score until they play half the schedule in three consecutive seasons. So, recent rookies and sophomores will only have begun their ascents up the ladder. Here’s a check-in on three young, high-profile forwards with pedigree still early in their careers.
Connor Bedard (#131), Chicago: Bedard’s seismic potential remains exciting, even if his NHL body of work hasn’t channeled young McDavid or Crosby just yet. Ranking if based on 2024-25 alone: #114
Macklin Celebrini (#204), San Jose: Celebrini outperformed expectations as an 18-year-old, scoring at a 74-point pace. Ranking if based on 2024-25 alone: #82
Matvei Michkov (#212), Philadelphia: Michkov finished fourth in Calder voting in a strong rookie field, scoring 26 goals despite a modest 16:41 in ice time. Ranking if based on 2024-25 alone: #94
💥 Feature Player
Mitch Marner’s long-term signing in Vegas is one of the most captivating stories of the upcoming season. In an NHL that sees fewer and fewer elite players move in the offseason, Marner (#12) is by far the highest-ranked forward changing locations. Only Nikolaj Ehlers (#45) also switched teams among the top 80 forwards.
Just 28 years old and fresh off a fifth-place finish in points (102) paired with a seventh-place Selke finish, there are few players as dynamic or well-rounded as Marner. 2025 represents his fourth straight year among the league’s top dozen forwards in High Noon. His company over the period? Fellow superstars Draisaitl, McDavid, MacKinnon, Pastrnak, Matthews and Mikko Rantanen. Will Marner cement a Hall of Fame legacy over his new contract, or was his best hockey played in a Maple Leafs‘ sweater?
Stay tuned the next two weeks for Part Two (Defensemen) and Part Three (Goaltenders).
Follow @AdjustedHockey on X; visit www.adjustedhockey.com; data from Hockey-Reference