The disappointing Connor Bedard’s unpaved path to stardom
Connor Bedard’s sophomore season has underwhelmed. It’s okay to say it out loud.
He only scored one goal in November. He went pointless in 10 of 12 games after the 4 Nations Face-Off break. And the only regular Chicago Blackhawks forwards with worse on-ice defensive metrics are soon-to-be-retired Pat Maroon and 35-year-old Craig Smith — now in Detroit, his fifth team in three seasons.
Breathe, everyone. Bedard is still 19 years old. He’s still the second-youngest skater who maintained a spot on an NHL roster this season. And the best is yet to come. How far away and how special his best work might be, well, that’s what we’re going to explore today.
But one thing is certain: the road to the top of the NHL is rarely a straight line.
The Generational Talent Label
A year ago, Bedard’s rookie season earned glowing reviews. While the term generational talent can be superfluous, it’s a fun and hopeful way to connect past, present, and future prodigies. I’ve defined it previously as: a player with such unmistakable promise and immediate impact that they could reasonably be the NHL’s best player over a 10-year span.
Last March, we’d placed Bedard’s Calder-winning performance against the generational forwards debuting since Wayne Gretzky nearly a half-century ago. Each player’s output was scaled to a neutral scoring climate — six goals per NHL game — and shown over 82 games to level the intergenerational ice surface. Below, we’ll find an updated visual featuring Bedard’s 2024-25 production.
The takeaways?
- Bedard is not Crosby or McDavid — and it’s not particularly close.
- Jagr’s first two seasons — 33 years ago — represent the only plausible path to hang with this crew.
- Unlike Bedard, none of the generational forwards took any early steps backward as point producers — any such year-to-year dips were merely fluctuations among dominant seasons.
It’s easy to say ‘told you so’ regarding Bedard’s projected impact and ceiling. But this isn’t a teenager who was inflated by the scouting community to grab the proverbial torch in the Crosby-McDavid bloodline. Far from it. Bedard asserted his will at the World Junior Championship (23 points in seven games) as a 17-year-old in a dizzying performance. His pre-NHL feats and tools were peerless.
In what’s now an ice-cold take, I had high hopes for Bedard’s second season: 40 goals and 100 points and massive steps forward. Fully healthy this year, he’s on pace for a modest 22 goals and 64 points. Slightly less productive. Still under 40% on faceoffs. And generating fewer shots than last year.
Help Wanted?
Now, Chicago won’t be confused with the 2001-02 Detroit Red Wings. They’re a lottery team again. But players of Bedard’s stature aren’t supposed to need much supporting talent to thrive. That’s why everyone was so excited, remember? The team was going to follow Bedard, not the other way around. Crosby and McDavid were immediately lethal — straws that stirred their franchises’ drinks. They had little help.
- Crosby, 2005-06 Penguins: Led team in points (by 44) and goals (by 15) on a team that won 22 games. It was Crosby and a revolving door of injured 1990s stars on their last legs: Mario Lemieux (age: 40); Mark Recchi (37); John LeClair (36); Ziggy Palffy (33). Ryan Malone and Colby Armstrong were the only other forwards under 30 to top 32 points. This was an old, slow, bad team. Crosby had 102 points.
- McDavid, 2015-16 Oilers: Third on the team in points — despite missing 37 games. Most commonly on the ice with? Jordan Eberle, Benoit Pouliot, Andrej Sekera, Nail Yakupov, and Mark Fayne. Within two years, all but Eberle were out of the league or fading fast. McDavid’s most frequent power play linemate? Mark Letestu. The Oilers finished second-last. McDavid was third in the NHL in points-per-game.
Bedard plays most often as a sophomore with Tyler Bertuzzi (five-time 20-goal scorer), Ryan Donato (33-goal pace), and skilled rookie Frank Nazar. Two time zones west, San Jose‘s Macklin Celebrini has been excellent with a mix of Tyler Toffoli, William Eklund, and fellow rookie Will Smith — a comparable group.
Bedard just hasn’t been an unyielding force that can thrive with anyone. Yet, anyway.
The good news? Well, it’s not McDavid or bust. There’s a lot of room between players in the best handful of all-time and… everyone else. Two of the leading Hart Trophy candidates this season — Nathan MacKinnon and Leon Draisaitl — are in their 12th and 11th NHL seasons. Nikita Kucherov, pressing hard to win consecutive scoring titles, is 31 years old and in his 11th season. None of them was an overnight sensation.
Reminder: Bedard is 19 and has played 142 NHL games.
The #1 Picks
So, Bedard didn’t take over the NHL like we’d hoped. And he’s unlikely to win a scoring title next season, either. But if we accept that and dial back the expectations, what might he do?
Parking the generational talk for now, let’s find a more suitable player pool. Here’s each of the 15 first overall draft picks of the salary cap era — Crosby through Celebrini. While it’s a mixed bag of outcomes, there’s some stunning talent below. Again, all seasons are scaled to the same scoring environment.
How does this measure up to the other first overall selections?
- The average #1 forward scored seven more points from rookie to sophomore: Bedard’s eight-point drop is nowhere near those of Nail Yakupov (25 points), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (21 points), or Nathan MacKinnon (16 points). But it’s still in the wrong direction. Patrick Kane (four points) is most similar with a small step back in Year 2 — he exploded to finish ninth in scoring the next season.
- The average #1 forward leapt another 10 points in their third season: Setbacks in Year 3 have been extremely rare. This bodes well for Bedard. Crosby and Stamkos were already superstars, so their ‘drops’ were inconsequential. Hischier, a much different player than Bedard, remained a 50-ish point player.
- The average #1 forward had their most productive season at age 24: Generational talents Crosby and McDavid were their most prolific in their age-24 seasons, albeit both did so in abbreviated schedules. Over a larger sample, Crosby peaked from 23-25 and McDavid — if he has indeed peaked — did so from 24-27. It’s likely we’re at least five years from seeing Bedard’s best.
Bedard outproduced his highly touted peers by 10 points as a rookie but fell five points behind as a sophomore. Recent history tells us it’s not unprecedented among top prospects finding their way in the NHL.
Past, Present, Future
Before we let Bedard go back to being a kid — one who will make nearly $2 million after performance bonuses and plays in front of 19,120 home fans per night — there are three players whose winding paths to stardom represent hopeful roadmaps. We’ll plot Bedard’s progress as a scorer against the trio by age.
▶️ Past: Patrick Kane (Age: 36)
An undersized, skilled, Calder-winning forward drafted first overall playing in Chicago? We know a guy. While Kane was a star on a Cup winner in his age-21 season, it’s revisionist history to think the future Hall of Famer’s evolution was linear. At 23, his adjusted point pace (73) on a mini-dynasty matches Bedard’s rookie season (72). Kane’s marquee season was at 27, which tells us to be patient with Bedard.
▶️ Present: Nathan MacKinnon (Age: 29)
MacKinnon, the reigning MVP, experienced frequent setbacks over his first four seasons. Like Bedard, he breezily won the Calder at 18 and his output regressed as a sophomore. Then came questions about his ceiling and if the hype was warranted. In Year 5, MacKinnon exploded and has yet to come back to Earth. The visual tells us that even his fourth season (59) was less productive than each of Bedard’s first two.
▶️ Future: Jack Hughes (Age: 23)
Despite his challenges staying on the ice, Hughes is the real deal. He’s scored at an adjusted 90-point pace each of the last four seasons and scored 43 goals in his age-21 season. The reaction to Hughes’ first two years in the NHL commonly featured the “B” word — bust. Not strong enough. His tricks won’t work here. Year 3 — Bedard in 2025-26 — was when Hughes leveled up offensively in a big way.
Closing Thoughts
Bedard is a unique player… ultra skilled but not able to consistently generate scoring chances. Yet. On the smaller side, but not unusually fast. Yet. A dangerous shot but not an elite finisher. Yet.
Perhaps Auston Matthews is a better fit on the generational forward board above — a Calder, two Rockets, an MVP by his 24th birthday, and more goals than Alex Ovechkin at 27. Maybe Macklin Celebrini becomes a singular scorer. Or the next generational talent is someone not yet drafted.
It’s important to remember that in our insatiable quest to match every prodigious talent with someone else means we don’t let players be themselves. Maybe Bedard’s path is like MacKinnon’s. Maybe he mirrors Taylor Hall — an MVP but only briefly an all-world talent.
But maybe he’s just Connor Bedard — a talented, hard-working teenager under a lot of scrutiny who develops into a superstar on his own time. And that’s okay.
Visit adjustedhockey.com; data from Hockey-Reference
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