How concerning are these disappointing starts to the 2024-25 NHL season?

Scott Maxwell
Scott Maxwell
How concerning are these disappointing starts to the 2024-25 NHL season?
Credit: © Aaron Doster

Evaluating teams and players is always challenging in the first month of the season. There’s a lot of discourse when a player starts a year off slowly, but more often than not, the start ends up being a simple cold streak that clears up by Thanksgiving or Christmas. Ultimately, it makes it tough to analyze the sport in the early-going (which is always great for us content creators).

So, while we’re waiting for the league to normalize, let’s take a look at some teams and players off to slow starts, and examine whether there’s cause for legitimate concern about them or if it’s just a spell of bad luck. Obviously, players and teams are sometimes the victims of bad luck all year and never quite catch their stride, but then return to normal next season, so even if the numbers indicate a bounce back for them at some point, it’s not guaranteed to happen this season.

I’m mostly focusing on the big disappointments, so while there are some instances that could qualify for this list (like Quinton Byfield having only seven points in 14 games), that’s at least a conceivable thing to have happen in the first few weeks of the season. I’m focusing on the players and teams that we expected a lot more from this season.

Boston Bruins

To say that people were expecting an eventual downfall from the Bruins would be an understatement. The Bruins have managed to keep their contention window open for as long as possible, but it’s felt inevitable since the departures of Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara, Tuukka Rask and David Krejci. And now, while they still sit in a playoff spot, they have a 6-7-1 record and are 11th in the East in points percentage, all while key players like Brad Marchand have struggled to score (until recently) and Charlie McAvoy has outright underperformed.

How sustainable is it?

Bad news, Bruins fans. As far as a lot of the metrics to measure sustainability go up to this point, the Bruins are as sustainable as they come. They’re almost right in the middle in PDO with 1.001, they have a middling 49.23% 5v5 expected goal share and a 48.27% 5v5 goal share when you adjust for score and venue effects, and they’re 17th in 5v5 expected goals for per 60 minutes and 20th in 5v5 expected goals against per 60. That’s far from bad, but it is mediocre at best and likely indicates that a path to the playoffs will involve a lot of heavy lifting from the likes of David Pastrnak and Jeremy Swayman. It’s still early and they could improve, but all signs point to that right now.

As for Marchand and McAvoy: Marchand is already starting to bounce back a bit, but I wouldn’t expect prime Marchand at the age of 36 either. McAvoy is a different story. His production will likely rebound considering he has a 5% on-ice shooting percentage at 5v5, but he’s currently rocking only a 48.36% 5v5 expected goal share. Considering that this is also coming off a playoff run that saw him see 49.48% of the expected goals, you have to wonder a bit more about his two-way game in the long run.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche have been chaos personified to start this season. They currently sit outside a playoff spot with a 6-7-0 record, are top 10 in the league in both goals for and goals against, and it seems like every forward not named Nathan MacKinnon or Mikko Rantanen is made of glass right now. They even had defenseman Oliver Kylington play on the wing last week. They’ve mostly recovered from their 0-4-0 start, but it hasn’t been a stretch that inspires confidence in a team many projected to be a Cup contender.

How sustainable is it?

There’s good news and bad news here. The good news is that the Avalanche have controlled 51.1% of the 5v5 expected goals so far this season and are mostly just victims of poor luck, with the third-worst PDO at 0.953 and the second-worst save percentage at .879.

The bad news is that, while the goaltending can be deduced to bad luck on a team-wide scale, it doesn’t mean it will automatically get better either. This is Alexandar Georgiev’s second-straight season with a negative goals saved above expected (although last year’s was not nearly as bad as this season), so his performance this season could be him playing badly just as much as it could be bad luck. At the very least, the Avs should see some improvement when their injured players return and likely make the playoffs regardless of the goaltending.

New York Islanders

The Islanders have been mired in mediocrity for three straight seasons after back-to-back final four appearances in 2020 and 2021, especially after the firing of Barry Trotz, but Patrick Roy provided a brief glimmer of hope last season. The Islanders turned back into a top-10 defensive team under his tenure and made a run for the playoffs before being ousted by the Carolina Hurricanes. This season, they’ve struggled with a 5-6-2 record, with their goals against taking a slight step back and their goals for being one of the worst totals in the league.

How sustainable is it?

Despite the results so far, the Islanders are still top five in expected goal suppression, and even despite their offensive struggles, they’re still 13th in expected goal generation, so when the team is healthy, they should hopefully see a rise in play. But, in the four games the Isles have played since losing Mat Barzal to injury for four to six weeks, they have a 1.96 5v5 expected goals for per 60. It’s only a small sample of four games, and it should improve when Barzal returns, but they might dig themselves too deep of a hole by then.

Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs)

If he hadn’t already in recent seasons, last season saw Auston Matthews cement himself as the best goal scorer in the league right now when he scored 69 goals. However, he’s been a bit slow to start this season (by his lofty standards), with only five goals in 13 games this season, which would put him on pace for just 31 goals. Even the best players go through cold stretches, but Matthews also only scored 40 goals in 2022-23 after scoring 60 in 2021-22. Could we be looking at another quiet season for Matthews?

How sustainable is it?

Based on what we’ve seen so far, this probably won’t carry on all year. Matthews is shooting 8.9% this season, which for most players is around where they should be, but is barely more than half Matthews’ career shooting percentage of 16%. Also, not only is Matthews generating expected goals at his regular rate, he’s actually doing it at the best rate of his career, with his 1.93 expected goals per 60 ahead by a decent margin of his previous best, which was 1.77 from last season. Along with that, the Leafs’ power play struggles this season have been well documented, which is another thing that should improve (and already has) and will help Matthews score again.

Miro Heiskanen/Wyatt Johnston/Jason Robertson (Dallas Stars)

Many expected the Stars to be one of the best teams in the league, and while they have been playing well with a 7-4-0 record, it still feels like they have a little bit more to give, particularly from a few of their key players. Robertson still hasn’t hit the level that he did in 2022-23, with just 7 points in 11 games. Johnston has just 1 goal and 6 points after establishing himself as a household name. And Miro Heiskanen has just 4 assists. The Stars thrive on their depth, so they’ll need more from these three pieces if they want that to continue to be the case.

How sustainable is it?

Heiskanen, Johnston and Robertson have respective 10.72%, 9.82% and 8.76% on-ice shooting percentages, which compared to their career shooting percentages of 9.61%, 10.36% and 12.64%. Obviously Robertson’s is a steep drop, but Johnston and Heiskanen are in the same realm as their career shooting percentage

Where there is a bit more to notice is in their difference in goals and expected goals. Heiskanen and Robertson are currently seeing -0.5 and -0.4 less goals scored than their expected goals per 60 minute, which isn’t a noticeable difference but still would make an impact on point totals early in the season. Johnston’s is still at +0.15, so there might be a bit more concern there. Overall, they should probably see a spike in their production because of the level that they normally play at, but there also isn’t exactly a ton of regression at play.

Jack Hughes (New Jersey Devils)

The Devils have managed to return to playoff form so far this year, largely in part to a better defense and an underperforming but still improved goaltending tandem that will probably step up their play down the road. What’s more impressive is that they’ve done it despite the fact that Jack Hughes hasn’t quite taken off yet. Four goals and 12 points in 15 games is far from bad, but this is a player who has been above a point per game over the past three seasons, so he’s certainly not playing at the level that many expect.

How sustainable is it?

Where Hughes has really struggled is his 5v5 production. He has just seven points so far and has an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.59%, well below both his career average of 8.59%, and the rate that he’s seen since his production increase in 2021-22, which was 9.18%. On top of that, the Devils have just 2.32 goals for per 60 minutes at 5v5 with Hughes on the ice, while they are generating 3.15 expected goals for per 60, which is about where it’s been in the past few seasons. There’s never a guarantee, but Hughes will probably see a step up in his production soon.

Elias Pettersson (Vancouver Canucks)

I’m sure you’ve seen the stat tossed around that Pettersson has just one 5v5 goal since signing his current eight-year contract with an $11.6 million cap hit. That has since changed, as he has two in his last five games, but even with those goals, he has just five points in 11 games. Since the contract signing, he has 19 points in 44 games across the regular season and playoffs. That just isn’t good enough for a player of Pettersson’s caliber, especially after cashing in on that new deal.

How sustainable is it?

If there is one thing that Canucks fans can look at as solace, it’s the fact that Pettersson is currently shooting 9.5% this season when he normally shoots at 16.4%, along with an on-ice shooting percentage of 11.22% that normally operates at 13.09%, so there should be some regression there.

But, there is one glaring concern: his shot rate. Right now, Pettersson is averaging 5.95 shots per 60 minutes, a rate that is far below his previous career low set in his rookie season. That said, he also talked before the season about training around a nagging knee injury, which may also be greatly impacting his play. There’s definitely some legitimate concern with Pettersson, but you have to think he returns to normal at some point here. Right?

_____

____

Article presented by Fountain Tire

At Fountain Tire, you don’t have to choose between a good deal or excellent service—they offer both. They treat your vehicle like their own, providing detailed inspections, photos, and updates on what’s fine, what needs attention, and what can wait. Offering top-quality tires and products from brands like Goodyear, safety is their top priority. Every visit ensures you’re as safe as possible on the road. If you need new tires, or your vehicle’s making a funny noise, stop by Fountain Tire. They’ll take care of it, or you can book an appointment online at www.fountaintire.com

_____

Recently by Scott Maxwell

Keep scrolling for more content!
19+ | Please play responsibly! | Terms and Conditions apply