How hard is it to win a Stanley Cup without an elite scorer?

Credit: Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin (© Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

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Can a Stanley Cup winner be distilled into a repeatable recipe?

It’s a question I ask every year after the NHL Trade Deadline passes as we reassess the league’s power structure based on which players changed teams. Is there a set list of ingredients a contending team can seek out and sprinkle into one pot every season to ensure a deep playoff run?

Last season, I laid out what I believed was a usable championship recipe by studying the previous 10 Stanley Cup winners. The recipe consisted of seven characteristics that were most common among the champions. It wasn’t as simple as just being good at everything. For instance, there wasn’t a strong correlation at all between having a good power play and winning the Cup, but there was a strong correlation between having a good penalty kill and winning the Cup.

Using the same parameters, which NHL roster has just the right mix of championship material this season?

Today, we continue the recipe series by examining the correlation between having one or more elite regular-season scorers and winning the Cup.

Stanley Cup Ingredient #2: Top-10 Scorer(s)

Don’t just roll your eyes and say, “Well duh, scoring is how you win, Einstein.” It’s not that simple and you know it. Think about the 1994-95 New Jersey Devils or the 2010-11 Boston Bruins or the L.A. Kings in 2012 and 2014. Those were stingy units that didn’t have one player capable of competing for the Art Ross Trophy every season, yet they hoisted the Cup in the end. The question is whether they are closer to the exceptions than the norm.

How many of the past 10 Stanley Cup champs had at least one elite scorer, someone who racks up points and can help improve the performance of other teammates in his orbit?

For the purpose of the exercise, we’ll define an elite scorer as (a) A player who finished top 10 in points during the year his team won the Stanley Cup or (b) A player who likely would have if not for injury and returned in time for the playoffs. In the latter case I’m referring to 2015 Patrick Kane and 2021 Nikita Kucherov. It would be silly to not count them. Same goes for Evgeni Malkin, who has ranked top-10 in points per game in each of his Cup-winning seasons as a Penguin.

Season	Champion	Top-10 scorers
2012-13	Chicago	1 (Kane)
2013-14	Los Angeles	0
2014-15	Chicago	1 (Kane*)
2015-16	Pittsburgh	2 (Crosby, Malkin*)
2016-17	Pittsburgh	2 (Crosby, Malkin*)
2017-18	Washington	0
2018-19	St. Louis	0
2019-20	Tampa Bay	1 (Kucherov)
2020-21	Tampa Bay	1 (Kucherov*)
2021-22	Colorado	1 (MacKinnon*)

So seven of the past 10 champions had at least one player who ranked as a top-10 scorer or was easily on pace to do so but didn’t because of injuries. And while the 2017-18 Capitals officially show up as having none, Alex Ovechkin was the NHL’s 11^th-leading scorer that season, and he and Evgeny Kuznetsov both cracked the top 20 in points per game.

So while the style of play shifts to much more of a war of attrition in the playoffs, the recent data tells us it’s difficult, albeit not impossible, to win purely on brawn and smarts. You still ideally want at least one game breaker to put the team on his back and win one himself in overtime.

Stanley Cup correlation: Strong

Let’s set the filter at minimum 40 games played so far this season and see which playoff-bound teams have players cracking the scoring leaderboard.

2022-23 leaders, points per game (min. 40 GP)

1. Connor McDavid, EDM, 1.88
2. Leon Draisaitl, EDM, 1.52
3. Nathan MacKinnon, COL, 1.48
4. Nikita Kucherov, TB, 1.45
5. David Pastrnak, BOS, 1.37
6. Tage Thompson, BUF, 1.33
7. Elias Pettersson, VAN, 1.31
8. Matthew Tkachuk, FLA, 1.31
9. Jason Robertson, DAL, 1.28
10. Jack Hughes, NJ, 1.27

Nine of the top 10 play for teams still in the hunt for playoff berths, while seven play for teams sitting in playoff positions right now. The Toronto Maple Leafs (Mitch Marner) and Pittsburgh Penguins (Sidney Crosby) have stars lurking just outside the top 10.

One contender that falls well short of the scorer ingredient in the championship recipe: the Vegas Golden Knights, who don’t have a point-per-game player and whose best scorer, Jack Eichel, sits 46^th in points per game (UPDATE).

But the team that sounds the most alarm bells for me is the team I pegged as 2023’s biggest trade deadline loser: the Carolina Hurricanes, who I believe needed badly to add one more game-breaking scorer. They have no point-per-gamer at the moment. They have earned their status as disciplined championship contenders under coach Rod Brind’Amour, but they haven’t had a top-10 scorer in the NHL since Eric Staal in 2012-13. Before that, it was Staal in 2005-06, and guess what the Canes accomplished that season?

Previous Stanley Cup Ingredients entries: Team Weight

Next up: Top-10 Goalies

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How hard is it to win a Stanley Cup without an elite scorer?

Stanley Cup Ingredient #2: Top-10 Scorer(s)

2022-23 leaders, points per game (min. 40 GP)

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