‘How important should team playoff success be to a Hockey Hall of Fame case?’ Featuring Henrik Zetterberg

Paul Pidutti (@AdjustedHockey)
Paul Pidutti (@AdjustedHockey)
‘How important should team playoff success be to a Hockey Hall of Fame case?’ Featuring Henrik Zetterberg

On the lead up to the Hockey Hall of Fame’s announcement of the 2023 Class on Wednesday, June 21, we’ll be profiling eight hopeful candidates. Each player profile will help answer a hard-hitting question about the HHOF and what membership to the game’s most exclusive honor should look like.

Picture your favorite image of a hockey legend raising the Stanley Cup.

Maybe it’s Zdeno Chara, a shaking, delirious giant finally able to touch the shimmering prize he left home as a teenager for 15 years prior. Or Lanny McDonald, a weathered hockey lifer on his last legs, teary-eyed as the enormity of the moment takes over.

No matter the circumstances or contributions, the hockey community labels its championship players as “winners.” Not just figuratively, either. The NHL permanently brands the name of each team member on a sacred grail for generations to celebrate. But in a sport with 32 teams, where goaltending, officiating and puck luck can seal any team’s fate in the blink of an eye, how much weight should we place on team success when it comes to the Hockey Hall of Fame? This week, we’re focusing on one of these winners — respected Swede Henrik Zetterberg.

The Narratives 🎙️

  • Big Proponent: “A two-way sensation, Zetterberg is as decorated as a hockey player can be — All-Rookie, All-Star, Cup winner, Playoff MVP, World champion, Olympic champion, and humanitarian.”
  • Big Opponent: “A well-rounded talent with only 337 goals, his association with a revered Original Six franchise and a boatload of team achievements overstates his individual impact.”

The Stats 💻

  • NHL Career (2002-2018): 15 seasons — Detroit

The High Noon Card 🕛

High Noon rankings are the equivalent of the world golf or tennis rankings — only for hockey. A player’s High Noon answers the question: “Where did they rank at their best in the NHL at their position?”

A seventh-round steal by the storied Red Wings’ scouting system, Zetterberg would not debut in North America until his 22nd birthday. In his 15-season NHL career, he would play 14 years in an unfavorable scoring climate (i.e., less than six goals per game). So, it’s easy to look at his stat lines and conclude they’re too vanilla for HHOF talk.

High Noon, however, tells a different story. Zetterberg would see his stock rise to the #4 forward in the NHL. In those first three post-lockout seasons, he found a world-class gear:

  • Regular Season: 47 goals, 50 assists, 97 points per 82 games
    • 1x second-team all-star (left wing), Top-10 in Selke votes each year
  • Playoffs: 65 points, +30 in 63 games, Conn Smythe Trophy
    • Nine playoff rounds won, including the 2008 Stanley Cup

A special three-year run near the top of the league doesn’t make a HHOF career, though. But short of convincing Ken Holland to sign Marian Hossa to help keep the good times rolling, I’m not sure what more we want from a player at the time. Zetterberg would last a decade in the top 50, including six turns in the top-25, and three in the top-11.

While not a smoking gun for his candidacy, he passes the “Was he great?” test.

The PPS Card 📊

The Pidutti Point Share (PPS) system measures a player’s HHOF worthiness in a single comprehensive number. A player’s PPS score is tiered based on the HHOF standard for their position and era.

With a score of 255 against a standard of 235, PPS tells us Zetterberg is a bona fide HHOF talent. What puts Hank over the top?

It’s not his Career score (68), which is 41st among the 61 post-expansion forwards, tied with countryman Henrik Sedin. His Pace score (75) fits right in, tied with Gilbert Perreault at the mid-point of HHOF forwards. His Peak score (91) is respectable, equaling Darryl Sittler at 38th. After factoring in his timeline hit, “Z” is at 230. A borderline HHOF case, a little below the standard, and in an absolute log jam of forwards with viable but unspectacular candidacies. It’s not yet spicy enough to make anyone on the Selection Committee go full Tortorella in a boardroom to get Zetterberg elected.

Enter the bonuses, the sizzle that rewards accolades beyond regular season play. While Zetterberg earned MVP votes five times, it was all down ballot, peaking in 10th. As such, his award bonus is negligible. Internationally, he was a key figure (6 points in 8 games) on Team Sweden’s gold medal at the ’06 Turin Olympics, the Tre Kronor’s only best-on-best title. A +10 boost to his score.

The final bonus is the heart of today’s HHOF question — the post-season. A full-time contributor to a Cup winner, he banks +10. The 2008 playoff leader in goals (13) and points (27), Zetterberg’s well-deserved Smythe selection adds another +5. It’s the team bonuses that move him from Borderline to Qualified in PPS.

The Comparisons 🧬

Who a player profiles most similarly to statistically is revealing as it removes any influence from reputation or playing style. Using career length, adjusted scoring, and the core factors of PPS, a player’s top five matches are presented. 1,000 is a perfect match.

A beautiful sight for Zetterberg aficionados. His player matches are not only a quintet of forwards above the HHOF standard (235), but they’re 4-for-4 as inductees. The only active player listed, Kopitar, is already qualified and generally regarded as a surefire future HHOF member.

This is where adjusted scoring can leap off a page. Henrik Zetterberg a similar scorer to St. Louis, Hawerchuk, Perreault, and Stastny?! No need to change your prescription… it’s correct.

What’s also notable is that among the five strong matches, only Kopitar joins Hank as being regarded as a high-end defensive presence. Zetterberg’s case is legit.

The Answer ⚖️

How important should team playoff success be to a Hockey Hall of Fame case?

This question was crowdsourced in the Twitter poll below last month. Team post-season success was defined as Stanley Cups. A fair interpretation in today’s win-or-go home sports climate. Fascinatingly, voters were split on the issue being “very important” or a “nice bonus” to a HHOF case.

The Cup-or-bust posse got a bump when the world’s greatest player recently chimed in. But in a league where McDavid and teammate Leon Draisaitl can average nearly two points a night and not sniff a ring, it feels increasingly like winning a Cup is so far beyond an individual player’s hands. The NHL is not the NBA.

Most importantly, the HHOF Selection Committee has entered the chat. After decades of sliding down the depth charts of dynasties in their choices — Bob Pulford, Harry Watson, Clark Gillies, Dick Duff, Glenn Anderson, Kevin Lowe — the Committee has seemingly moved away from Cup count as a priority.

All four male player inductees in 2022 — Daniel Alfredsson, Daniel and Henrik Sedin, and Roberto Luongo — never sipped from Lord Stanley’s silverware. Ditto for Finnish female legend Riikka Sallinen, inducted without a major gold medal. In fact, going back to 2016, half (9 of 18) of the elected NHL players entered without a ring. Henrik Lundqvist is a safe bet to add to the list next month too. In a salary cap league where 31 teams go home “losers” and parity reigns supreme, this is a logical trend. After all, Pat Maroon has three rings, and McDavid has never been within eight wins of a Cup.

When it comes to PPS, Cups are a nice bonus. The methodology is calibrated to era with room for individual impact (i.e., rewarding Conn Smythes or leading the playoffs in major categories; downgrading for minimal contributions to Cup titles). The maximum bonus (30) is meant to capture the approximate slice of a player’s career that playoff games comprise (typically 5% to 15%). This helps separate similar careers as Stanley Cups color every player’s legacy, regardless of the good team fortune involved.

To illustrate, let’s put some exceptional post-season results into action.

The playoffs transform Jonathan Toews’ legacy from Denis Savard into Bobby Clarke. Duncan Keith? He morphs from Eric Desjardins to Serge Savard. Marc-Andre Fleury becomes level with Carey Price as a candidate. Eye-popping shifts in perception. So, while playoff success can’t turn you or me into Ryan Reynolds or Beyoncé, it can move the needle on HHOF cases.

The Verdict 🚦

Our deep dive into Zetterberg’s career has been flattering. While he didn’t rule the sport for long, he approached its pinnacle for a few years. He sustained a high level of play — an eight-year run as an 88-point marquee player featuring sterling defense (Selke votes 10 times) and strong playoff performances on a perennial contender.

Take what you will from a team-dependent accolade, but he’s one of 19 forwards in the Triple Gold Club, those with a Stanley Cup, Olympic gold, and World Championship.

Publicly, it’s good vibes. About 60% in the poll above supported his candidacy with varying levels of urgency. An additional 30% weren’t supportive, but could accept his induction. Only 10% were a Hard No, a positive sign on a polarizing subject. His longtime Detroit running mate, magician Pavel Datsyuk, is eligible in 2024. So, Zetterberg’s credentials may come under the spotlight sooner than later.

While there’s a strong case for getting Hank’s handsome face sketched in the plaque room, there are nine eligible forwards ahead of him in PPS. Seven of them have waited at least a decade. So, yes he belongs, but the HHOF has other omissions to tidy up first. Patrik Elias, for example, with a PPS of 264 to Zetterberg’s 255, boasts a similarly balanced case in a longer career. He’s been passed over since 2019.

In closing, being on winning teams can greatly inflate legacies. Similarly, a star helplessly anchored to a lifetime of flawed rosters are often unfairly painted with a losing brush. Zetterberg’s teams surely help his case, but he was a consistent, high-performing contributor to that success.


Catch up on the series by @AdjustedHockey:

Adjusted Pace, High Noon, PPS System, High Noon & PPS Player Cards, Player Comparison Tool from Adjusted Hockey; All other data from Hockey-Reference.com

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