How the rival Capitals and Penguins have ended up in very different places
The clash between the Washington Capitals and the Pittsburgh Penguins has long been one of the NHL’s best. Conference rivals for more than 40 years, the teams have met 11 times in the playoffs. Hockey immortals Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby still lead their teams into Season #20 of their iconic rivalry.
But when it comes to each franchise’s current place in the standings, the contrast is shocking.
The Capitals have been a revelation, a dominant force atop the league by any measure. The Penguins, meanwhile, have struggled mightily, near the cellar of the NHL in goal differential, albeit with an uptick in recent play.
Today, we’re seeking answers… How have the two rivals found themselves in such polarized states? Where did Washington go right? Where did Pittsburgh go wrong? And what can we learn?
The Last Decade
Pens vs. Caps renewed its status as much-watch hockey in November 2005. It was the first of what’s now become 95 head-to-head matchups between Ovechkin and Crosby. This era’s war has gone to the Penguins, holding a 41-29 edge in the regular season and 3-1 lead in playoff matchups (and Cup count).
But we’ll focus our attention on the last decade. The chart below summarizes the last 10 years across three distinct windows for each franchise.
How We Got Here
With such remarkably similar timelines, the comparison is fascinating. An investigation into when and how the rivals moved in opposite directions identifies five key factors.
Difference #1: The Core
The Penguins’ core aged better than the Capitals’ core… and it cost them.
You heard it countless times. Any team with Crosby and Evgeni Malkin: 1. Shouldn’t rebuild; and 2. Wouldn’t finish low enough in the standings to draft future-altering talent. It seems like a great thing to have your stars maintaining an elite level. Competitive windows stay open… tickets get sold… free agents are attracted… the band stays together.
In that fateful summer of 2022, the Penguins’ four core skaters had just collectively averaged an era-neutral point-per-game. You could squint and see Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Letang, and some crafty reinforcements winning a Cup. When a team has aging but capable talent, management’s foot typically hits the gas.
By comparison, the Caps’ core had a couple of men down. Expensive ones, too. Backstrom and Oshie were shadows of themselves physically and chewed up major cap space. The writing was on the wall: Washington did not have a Cup-contending core.
This would be a gift.
Difference #2: The 2022 Off-Season
The summer of 2022 changed the course of each franchise’s future — and flexibility.
Now, playing armchair quarterback with two-plus years of hindsight is as easy as it gets. While Pittsburgh hadn’t won a playoff round in four years, they were still a 103-point team that had just lost a crushing seven-game series to the New York Rangers.
GM Ron Hextall was under immense pressure to stay competitive from new owners Fenway Sports Group. Crosby also expected longtime pals Malkin and Letang would be re-signed. So, Hextall pushed all his poker chips into the middle. There was no going back…
- 36-year-old Malkin? Four years.
- 35-year-old Letang? Six years.
- 34-year-old Jeff Petry acquired via trade at $6.3 million AAV.
- 32-year-old Jan Rutta, owner of 12 career goals, secured a three-year deal.
- Bryan Rust re-upped for six years through age 35.
- Rickard Rakell signed for six years through age 34.
Two-hundred and fifty miles down the road, Washington did very little business. With Backstrom and Oshie’s deals turning sour, there weren’t many options. They signed Darcy Kuemper — fresh off a Cup win in Colorado — and Charlie Lindgren to solidify their wonky crease. And took a flyer on reclamation project Dylan Strome.
Two great franchises were going into 2022-23 with different outlooks. Pittsburgh felt they had a few years to win a fourth Cup. Washington, their hands tied, settled in for a season of mediocrity.
Difference #3: The 2023 Off-Season
The Capitals bottomed out first and accepted reality. The Penguins dug even deeper.
Predictably, Washington had its worst season (80 points) since Ovechkin’s sophomore year. Kuznetsov joined Backstrom and Oshie as damaged goods. Ovechkin and Carlson took steps back in production. Dmitry Orlov, Garnet Hathaway, Marcus Johansson, Erik Gustafsson, and Lars Eller had been dealt at the 2023 trade deadline.
The Capitals were hardly cooking. But they were digging up, not down. Curiously, Tom Wilson was extended for seven years. Otherwise, Caps’ GM Brian MacLellan was staying flexible, awaiting relief from LTIR as part of a re-tool on the fly. The discarded Strome was turning into a nice find. And by season’s end, 23-year-olds Martin Fehérváry and Rasmus Sandin would inject youth to a team accepting it needed to walk before it ran.
Despite its arsenal of scoring talent, Pittsburgh missed the playoffs for the first time since Crosby was 18. It both stunned and embarrassed the franchise. Hextall was mercifully turfed. He’d never really fit in Pittsburgh. A conservative executive, his heart wasn’t into swinging for the fences with an ancient core.
Enter Kyle Dubas.
Like Hextall, he was given the contradictory mandate of winning the Stanley Cup while also turning over the group to some unknown future generation. A retool or rebuild was simply not in the franchise’s recipe book. So, weeks into the job, Dubas’ shopping cart filled up fast:
- Norris winner Erik Karlsson was landed in a blockbuster.
- Tristan Jarry was brought back to be the goalie of the present and future.
- Reliable defender Ryan Graves was signed in free agency.
- Veteran Reilly Smith was acquired from Vegas.
Working fast and furiously, Dubas brought renewed, if naïve, optimism to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Washington’s expectations remained low. Yet, both teams would flirt with a playoff spot. The Caps would overachieve, slip in on the last day, and get swept by the Rangers. Pittsburgh would shockingly finish three points back of their rivals, a second season watching the playoffs from home.
Difference #4: The Coach
The Capitals found a new voice. The Penguins leaned in on their old one.
Pittsburgh’s current state is hardly an indictment of Mike Sullivan. The respected bench boss has admirably towed the party line. But nine years of the same voice is a long time. Six-plus years without winning a playoff round leaves a lot of scar tissue marching the same group out behind the same coach.
Washington, however, has been willing to change course. They tried the familiar, promoting assistant Todd Reirden when Barry Trotz skipped town after the 2018 Cup victory. They tried the experienced hand of Peter Laviolette in 2020. And the bench is now steered by Spencer Carbery, hired at age 41, with no NHL head coaching experience in 2023. It’s worked.
To say Washington’s overachieved under Carbery would be a seismic understatement. Call it a fresh voice or a shakeup, but the Capitals have thrived. While last year’s playoff spot was fluky, this year’s team looks like a juggernaut. Despite limited elite talent, Carbery has pushed the right buttons in D.C.
Sure, it’s unlikely Pittsburgh would have been a top team the last three seasons under a different coach. But their inability to protect leads, their power play failings, and frequent uninspired play has rarely made them look like a well-oiled unit. It’s left the door open for what-ifs, particularly given Washington’s resurgence.
Difference #5: The 2024 Off-Season
The Capitals made savvy acquisitions last summer. The Penguins couldn’t.
Few believed in Washington in September — myself included. The betting market had them as a 90-point team on the high end, a repeat playoff spot unlikely. But most importantly, after weathering the storm of the last two seasons, they had cards to play. They had some cap space. They could add talent in good conscience, given key pieces Strome, Connor McMichael, Aliaksei Protas, and Sandin were between 24 and 27-years-old.
So, they gambled on Pierre-Luc Dubois (still 26), swapping him for Kuemper. They made savvy trades for Jakob Chychrun (26), Logan Thompson (27), and Andrew Mangiapane (28). They signed Matt Roy long-term to stabilize their blueline. The moves were undoubtedly making the team younger, faster, and better in both the short and long-term.
Having mortgaged the future the last two summers, Pittsburgh’s wallet and prospect cupboard were bare. Kevin Hayes and Matt Grzelcyk were two more tired bodies added to its stable of 30-somethings. Dubas has also shrewdly added high-upside, low-cost types Blake Lizotte, Philip Tomasino, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Cody Glass looking to the future. But there were no meaningful dollars or strings left to pull this summer.
Final Takeaways
With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to see how these two proud franchises went in opposite directions. The Penguins aged like fine wine, creating the illusion that its core led by the same coach could keep sipping from the Fountain of the Youth. But the well ran dry. They committed to the group in 2022, doubled down in 2023, and were left without an ounce of flexibility when things went astray.
After several of Washington’s main guys deteriorated, they read the room… waited, accepted a few lean years and preserved the flexibility to retool with Ovechkin and Carlson as key parts but not the entire machine. The best time to plant a tree was yesterday and the Capitals laid those seeds with their 2023 trade deadline purge. After short-term pain, Washington is competitive. Their rival Pittsburgh now faces long-term pain.
Follow @AdjustedHockey; visit www.adjustedhockey.com; data from Hockey-Reference, NHL.com