Identifying the key battlegrounds in conference final matchups

The NHL’s Final Four is set. Our resident coach Jon Goyens has pored over the tape, identifying the key battleground areas in the conference finals:

Key Battlegrounds

Western Conference

Colorado Avalanche vs. Edmonton Oilers

Key Battlegrounds: How They Choose to Score & Goaltending

Speed, skill, youth and more speed to burn. You’d think I’m describing the hit Netflix series F1: Drive to Survive, but it’s also true in this Western Conference final. This could be the on-ice version that hockey fans have been clamoring for, especially when we’re anticipating more highlight-reel rushes from Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon.

How will they choose to score? Edmonton is scoring off the rush better than any team in the playoffs and the Avalanche are right behind them. However, Colorado has also given up the most goals-against off the rush, while goals-against for the Oilers are coming in defensive-zone play. So, will the Avs embrace the ‘fun zone,’ where they are one of the most exciting and proficient teams at deploying their dynamic defensemen like Cale Makar? He can dance and create and shine. If Colorado can learn from the Flames approach that trading offensive punches on the rush won’t work against Edmonton, the Avs will be much better off if they can force the Oilers to defend in their own end.

As for goaltender, this is a strange matchup. Mike Smith’s .927 save percentage is solid, yet he hasn’t stolen a game, and the number may be a little deceiving because Edmonton’s allows a high shot volume. Darcy Kuemper has a .904 save percentage and has withstood an eye injury. Which one of these guys will be the difference maker? Can one of them turn the tide with a big save – or perhaps, more importantly, avoid allowing the one that just shouldn’t go in? Maybe with the number of goals we’re expecting, they just need to be average.

A bonus area to watch: Colorado’s penalty kill has struggled. It was 77 percent in Round 1 and just 69 percent in Round 2 against St. Louis. If they continue to slide in this area against one of the most efficient, creative and least predictable power plays in the league, it could sink the Avalanche.

Eastern Conference

New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Key Battlegrounds: Championship Experience vs. Naive Youthfulness

When asked about the mantra the New York Rangers may have had to help with the Game 7 mindset, defenseman Adam Fox said: “No, not really. Maybe we are just a little naive in there, we have a young group and some guys who have been through it, and we just don’t want to see our season end.”

Sometimes, that is helpful. Youthfulness doesn’t always crack under pressure. The Rangers are just living in the moment and may not fully grasp the magnitude of what’s on the line. That might hit them as one of the final four teams remaining – as they go up against the seasoned veteran Lightning, who play for keeps in search of their third straight Stanley Cup.

These are two teams that can play fast and don’t spend lots of time with long and drawn-out regroups or set breakouts. They want to play in their opponent’s zone quickly, and this is where the neutral zone forecheck will play a huge role at 5-on-5.

Tampa Bay’s ability to establish a very strong forecheck, used to combat any quick-ups and fast-moving zone entries, will be on full display once again. We are expected to see a 1-1-3 setup, which at times looks like a 1-3-1, which relieves pressure on their backside defenseman and allows for more time to get to dump-ins. That enables Tampa Bay to get the puck out of the defensive zone more cleanly and consistently and to start the counterattack. This strategy by the Lightning will also reduce the number of odd-man rushes against.

Either team turning the puck over on zone entries will see its opponent counter quickly. So, to adjust, the Rangers cannot force what isn’t available. Their spatial awareness and their ability to manage the puck through the neutral zone will be key. At times, it will require a ‘place and chase’ approach.

Series to series adjustments and game fundamentals are very important. What may have worked last round against the Hurricanes might come back to bite the Rangers in the butt if they don’t respect the two-time defending champions.

Bonus area to watch: In Round 2, the Rangers’ power play was on fire (33 percent) and will go up against a Lightning P.K. that was 92 percent effective. Winning the battle there could lead to one team grabbing momentum with a particularly well-timed goal or save. No doubt this will be a great goaltending matchup to watch, specifically with how well each of Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy plays the puck.

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Former QMJHL head coach Jon Goyens has 28 years of coaching experience, from the lowest levels of minor hockey all the way to serving as a special consultant for an NHL team during the Stanley Cup playoffs. He is the winningest coach in the history of the Quebec Midget ‘AAA’ league with the Lac St. Louis Lions and has helped develop 25-plus players to be selected in the NHL Draft. He has also worked as an individual skills and development coach with future Hockey Hall of Famer Hilary Knight, as well as NHL players such as Jonathan Drouin and Mike Matheson.

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