The Cole Caufield breakout season is finally here

Steven Ellis
Steven Ellis
The Cole Caufield breakout season is finally here
Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

Every year, whenever the Montreal Canadiens are brought up in previews, one question seems to persist: will THIS be the year that Cole Caufield breaks the 40-goal barrier? How about 50?

He looked on pace to do so in 2022-23, scoring 26 goals in 46 games before an injury ended his season early. Caufield set career-highs in 2023-24, scoring 28 goals and 65 points in a full 82-game season. A good start – but given his ability to score from anywhere, many expected him to do even better last year.

Could he finally break through this season? Caufield is off to the best goal-scoring start of his career. Highlighted by a pair of two-goal games against the Ottawa Senators and New York Islanders, Caufield now has eight goals and nine points in nine games.

It’s a bit lopsided, for sure. But Caufield is starting to like one of the game’s truly elite goal-scorers. It’s hard for anybody to sustain a hot scoring run like Caufield, especially at a 30.8 shooting percentage. But when you’re hot, you’re hot – and Caufield is on top of the world right now.

It took Caufield 30 games to score eight times last season after scoring three goals in his first four outings. It took him 12 games to reach that total in 2022-23, but he also had long stretches of nothing throughout the campaign. It’s still a small sample size this year, but this is arguably the best stretch of hockey Caufield has played so far. He’s had two multi-goal games, but he has stayed consistent with goals in all four of Montreal’s victories this year.

Caufield is still primarily shooting from the left side of the ice – an area skilled right-handed shooters like Steven Stamkos and Alex Ovechkin love to abuse. It’s where most of Caufield’s goals have come from this year and, really, his entire career. But Caufield isn’t afraid to get to the net, with the 5-foot-8 forward holding his own around the crease. He might not be big or particularly strong, but when it comes to jamming the puck in, Caufield is among the best young players in the NHL.

For example, of his 26 goals during the 2022-23 regular season, just one came in the hashmarks or high slot. SportContract has Caufield at getting eight of his 31 shot attempts from the slot on net – 25.8 percent. Last year, it was 23 of 67 attempts, or 47.8 percent. Caufield is still heavily shooting from the two wings, but his actual shot location has slightly diversified.

The high-quality chances still come from the same areas – primarily when he attacks the net. And, unsurprisingly, the highest percentage of goals across the NHL come in close. Caufield is extremely dangerous when he uses his speed and quick hands to beat defenders and score in tight situations. Caufield hasn’t let his small frame stop him rushing to the net, and he’s been able to use his creativity and footwork to beat defenders in a way that he wasn’t able to when he graduated to the pro game.

When Caufield was ripping goals like it was nothing – and ultimately setting a goals record at the time – while playing with Jack Hughes at the USA Hockey National Team Development Program, Caufield was able to abuse open space. He still does now, but that space is nowhere near as expansive in the NHL.

That’s the thing junior sharpshooters have to deal with often. But Caufield is so much better when he’s in a position to create. We saw him skate around and do a whole lot of nothing at the World Juniors when he was in more of a depth role. Goal-scorers need to be given the best tools possible to score – and that’s what Nick Suzuki gives him on any given night.

One of the trademark facets of Caufield’s shot is how quickly he gets the release off. The NHL’s best scorers often don’t need much time to prep the puck – just shoot and go. Being deceptive like that makes it difficult for even the best goaltenders to read, giving them little time to prepare. Even from tougher angles, like the left side he loves to shoot from, the extra bit of hesitation can mean all the difference.

The Canadiens needed to see real growth from their star players this season as they look to make a serious, long-term climb up the standings. We’re not talking about playoffs here, but the team’s top stars on long-term deals need to start pushing the envelope. So far, Suzuki is playing at more than a point per game, Caufield has been dominant, Lane Hutson has turned heads as a rookie, and Juraj Slafkovsky had six points in his first six games before getting injured. Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach have been quiet, and Patrik Laine is still out for a few months.

But Caufield is getting the job done in a way we haven’t seen from him before. When Caufield is flying high, so are the Canadiens.

Expect regression — lots of it. Caufield is not becoming the first 70-plus goal scorer in more than 30 years. You also never see players essentially double their goal count year-to-year, so asking for 50 seems like a stretch for Caufield. But the Mosinee, Wisconsin native is in his fourth full NHL season, and he’s starting to come into his own. And at 23, the fun is only really starting to begin. Many people in the game expect him to be a 50-goal scorer one day, and he’s got plenty of wiggle room to slow down and still make that happen over the next 70 games.

But right now, Cole Caufield is must-watch entertainment.

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