Larkin: Is Ryan Getzlaf a first-ballot Hall of Famer?
It gives us all the feels in the sports world when a player retires after spending a long, accomplished career with a single franchise. That was the mood across social media Tuesday when Anaheim Ducks captain Ryan Getzlaf, 36, announced he would retire when the 2021-22 scheduled concludes. With the Ducks set to miss the playoffs, that leaves just 11 games and four home dates before Getzlaf calls it a career.
He’ll hang ’em up as the Ducks’ longest-tenured captain and all-time leader in games, assists, points, playoff goals, playoff assists and playoff points. He belongs alongside Teemu Selanne, Paul Kariya, Corey Perry and Jean-Sebastian Gigure as the greatest players to spend the majority of their careers as Ducks. Getzlaf, of course, is the only one among them to play every game in an Anaheim jersey. If he plays in all 11 remaining games, he’ll finish with 1,161 to leapfrog Bob Gainey and Harry Howell for 30th on the NHL’s all-time leaderboard of games played with one franchise. Getzlaf is one of 46 players to record at least 1,000 points with a single franchise.
So let’s do what every good hockey fan does when a star player retires: fire up the Hall of Fame debate. What are Getzlaf’s chances? On the surface, he hits some obvious benchmarks. He’s eclipsed 1,000 points. He’s fifth among active players in career assists and has cracked the top 10 in seven seasons. He owns a Stanley Cup ring and two Olympic gold medals. He was the 2013-14 Hart Trophy runner-up and also has a sixth- and seventh-place finish to his name.
Does that make him a first-ballot Hall of Famer? An eventual Hall of Famer? Or does he sit on the ‘Hall of Very Good’ fringe?
To draw a conclusion, I’ll compare Getzlaf’s career to similar players inside and outside the Hall as well as his contemporaries.
Getzlaf vs. current Hall of Famers
Getzlaf’s 731 assists place him 51st in NHL history, and he’s one of 56 players in the 700-assist club. Of the other 55 in the club, 40 are already Hall of Famers, while five others – Jaromir Jagr, Joe Thornton, Sidney Crosby, Henrik Sedin and Patrick Kane – can be confidently pencilled in as Hall of Famers despite not yet being eligible. That means 82 percent of the players in the 700-assist club are Hall worthy.
Getzlaf’s 1,013 points rank 88th all-time, and he’s one of 93 players in the 1,000-point club, which boasts 60 Hall of Famers so far. Add the shoo-ins – Jagr, Thornton, Alex Ovechkin, Crosby, Kane, Evgeni Malkin, Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Anze Kopitar – and that’s 69 out of the other 92 1,000-point getters, or 75 percent.
Among NHLers with 1,000 or more career games, Getzlaf sits 30th all-time with 0.64 assists per game. Every other member of the top 30 is a Hall of Famer or shoo-in Hall of Famer aside from Bernie Nicholls (and Nicklas Backstrom, though I’d argue he deserves shoo-in love).
Getzlaf vs. the Hall of Fame snub club
Can we call Getzlaf a Hall of Famer yet when certain other forwards with similar resumes haven’t gotten their nods?
We can probably all rhyme off the list at this point. The debate typically starts with Daniel Alfredsson. Then the purists counterpunch with Alexander Mogilny. The discussion stretches into Patrik Elias and Jeremy Roenick. Once Guy Carbonneau and his three Selke Trophies made the cut, the Rod Brind’Amour support swelled.
Here’s how Getzlaf measures up to some other perceived snubs in a few key categories:
| Player | Points | Pts/GP | Top-10 scorer | Major Awards | Stanley Cups | All-star | Olympic gold |
| Daniel Alfredsson | 1,157 | 0.93 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Rod Brind’Amour | 1,184 | 0.80 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Vincent Damphousse | 1,205 | 0.87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrik Elias | 1,025 | 0.83 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Theoren Fleury | 1,088 | 1.00 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ryan Getzlaf | 1,013 | 0.88 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Alexander Mogilny | 1,032 | 1.04 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jeremy Roenick | 1,216 | 0.89 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierre Turgeon | 1,327 | 1.03 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
So Getzlaf clearly holds his own against the snub tier. That puts him, at worst, on the Hall bubble. He’s tied for first in top-10 scoring finishes and is the only player among the group with two Olympic gold medals, albeit he had opportunities most of the others didn’t. That said, Getzlaf doesn’t lord above this group. If he makes the Hall on the first ballot, Mogilny had better be there with him.
Still, it’s difficult to compare players from different eras. The best way to judge a player’s Hall candidacy is based on how he fares relative to his peers.
Getzlaf vs. his contemporaries
Since 2005-06, Getzlaf’s debut NHL season, he’s one of 38 forwards to top 1,000 games. Among that group, he ranks fifth in assists, trailing only Crosby, Thornton and Backstrom; and seventh in points, trailing only Ovechkin, Crosby, Kane, Malkin, Thornton and Kopitar. Only Crosby, Kane, Thornton, Sedin and Backstrom average more primary assists per game.
If we drill down deeper and look at Getzlaf’s playmaking on a per-60 basis at 5-on-5, which the NHL has only tracked since 2009-10: he’s third in assists per 60 and eighth in primary assists per 60 over that span. Any way we sort the data, it seems, Getzlaf grades out among the elite playmakers of his generation, surrounded on the leaderboard by surefire Hall of Famers.
THE VERDICT
Getzlaf checks the right boxes to be a Hall of Famer. His accomplishments and numbers are consistent with those of many other players already inducted and measure up well with those of other players perceived to be on the bubble. When judged by his impact relative to his peers during his career, he shows up even better as one of the pre-eminent playmaking forwards of his era. Factor in his winning pedigree, leadership and above-average defensive contributions and you have a safe bet.
But does Getzlaf make it on the first ballot? Let’s see if the likes of Mogilny, Alfredsson and Brind’Amour are in yet when Getzlaf’s time comes.
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