Matt Larkin’s fantasy hockey midseason top 300 player rankings

Credit: Connor McDavid (© Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports)

Mid-season fantasy rankings feel different than pre-season rankings. When you’re preparing for a full season of hockey pools, you’re forecasting entire years, basing prognostications on players’ long-term track records and projecting out high-impact rookies.

The mid-season rankings by comparison feel…raw. They carry more of a feral desperation. You’re reacting to what you’re seeing right now. This deep into the season, we can no longer assume every hot streak will regress to the mean (Andrei Kuzmenko never did last year) or that every slumping player will come out of it (Jonathan Huberdeau in general). In head-to-head formats, we have just more than a month left in the regular season. Sorry, Tage Thompson, I had you as a first-round pick in September, but I can’t rank you higher than Surgin’ Sammy Reinhart at this point. The sample size is too big.

I approach the mid-season top 300 with this cold mentality. I still bake in some expected regression, positive and negative, but we can no longer ignore what we’ve seen so far this season. I’m also pretty tough on injured players. Jack Eichel and Connor Bedard, for instance, are great fantasy commodities, but they might not return in time to help you make your fantasy playoffs, let alone win them.

With that, here are my top 300 fantasy players for the balance of the 2023-24 campaign, based on the following stat categories: goals, assists, plus-minus, shots, power-play points, hits, blocks, wins, goals-against average, saves, save percentage and shutouts.

(Injured or absent players are marked with asterisks)

1. Connor McDavid, C, Oilers
2. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Avalanche
3. David Pastrnak, RW, Bruins
4. Auston Matthews, C, Maple Leafs
5. Nikita Kucherov, RW, Lightning
6. Leon Draisaitl, C, Oilers
7. Mikko Rantanen, RW, Avalanche
8. Cale Makar, D, Avalanche
9. Elias Pettersson, C, Canucks
10. Matthew Tkachuk, RW, Panthers
11. Connor Hellebuyck, G, Jets
12. Artemi Panarin, LW, Rangers
13. Quinn Hughes, D, Canucks
14. J.T. Miller, C, Canucks
15. Jason Robertson, LW, Stars
16. Jack Hughes, C, Devils*
17. Ilya Sorokin, G, Islanders
18. Evan Bouchard, D, Oilers
19. Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Wild
20. Thatcher Demko, G, Canucks
21, Mitch Marner, RW, Maple Leafs
22. Brady Tkachuk, LW, Senators
23. Sam Reinhart, RW, Panthers
24. William Nylander, RW, Maple Leafs
25. Sidney Crosby, C, Penguins
26. Zach Hyman, RW, Oilers
27. Brayden Point, C, Lightning
28. Sebastian Aho, C, Hurricanes
29. Jeremy Swayman, G, Bruins
30. Jake Oettinger, G, Stars
31. Rasmus Dahlin, D, Sabres
32. Roman Josi, D, Predators
33. Noah Dobson, D, Islanders
34. Roope Hintz, C, Stars
35. Tim Stutzle, C, Senators
36. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Lightning
37. Igor Shesterkin, G, Rangers
38. Adam Fox, D, Rangers
39. Kyle Connor, LW, Jets
40. Victor Hedman, D, Lightning
41. Adin Hill, G, Golden Knights
42. Miro Heiskanen, D, Stars
43. Steven Stamkos, C, Lightning
44. Filip Forsberg, LW, Predators
45. Jake Guentzel, LW, Penguins
46. Brad Marchand, LW, Bruins
47. Alexandar Georgiev, G, Avalanche
48. Juuse Saros, G, Predators
49. Carter Verhaeghe, LW, Panthers
50. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Oilers

MacKinnon has been fantasy’s best player in 2023-24, but he’s missed eight, 17 and 11 games in his previous three seasons. I still have concerns over his durability. If he gets nicked up, the Avs won’t hesitate to rest him. The Stanley Cup is their priority…McDavid thus holds down the top spot. He has 51 points in his past 27 games…I surprised myself with Pastrnak over Matthews, but ‘Pasta’ has a higher assists/points ceiling, leads the NHL in shots and hasn’t missed a game in almost two years…Matthew Tkachuk had five goals and 22 points after 32 games. His next 17 games: 11-18-29. He back…It sounds like Jack Hughes is close to returning, but I’m being cautious with his ranking. He has now missed significant time due to injury in two of his past three seasons. Is he brittle? …Bouchard has been everything we hoped he’d be, quarterbacking the magical Oiler power play. Top-three fantasy blueliner, easily…Reinhart has been an amazing story and we have to acknowledge him as a fantasy star. Still, I’d sell high. Remember Bo Horvat’s 60-goal pace at the halfway point last season? Reinhart leads the NHL in shooting percentage at 27.6. That said, I’ve already priced that expected regression into his still-generous ranking…Vasilevskiy and Shesterkin have struggled this season, but they’ve been too good for too long not get the benefit of the doubt. Don’t have faith? Fine – can you trade them to me, then?

51. Clayton Keller, LW, Coyotes
52. Mika Zibanejad, C, Rangers
53. Kevin Fiala, LW, Kings
54. Aleksander Barkov, C, Panthers
55. Jesper Bratt, RW, Devils
56. Dylan Larkin, C, Red Wings
57. Stuart Skinner, G, Oilers
58. Tage Thompson, C, Sabres
59. Adrian Kempe, RW, Kings
60. Mark Scheifele, C, Jets*
61. Mathew Barzal, C, Islanders
62. Alex DeBrincat, LW, Red Wings
63. Jacob Markstrom, G, Flames
64. Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Hurricanes*
65. Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Panthers
66. Chris Kreider, LW, Rangers
67. Travis Konecny, RW, Flyers
68. Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Wild
69. Brock Boeser, RW, Canucks
70. Bo Horvat, C, Islanders
71. Tristan Jarry, G, Penguins
72. Robert Thomas, C, Blues
73. Nico Hischier, C, Devils
74. Joe Pavelski, RW, Stars
75. Vincent Trocheck, C, Rangers
76. Linus Ullmark, G, Bruins
77. Charlie McAvoy, D, Bruins
78. Cole Caufield, LW, Canadiens
79. Elias Lindholm, C, Canucks
80. Mark Stone, RW, Golden Knights
81. Morgan Rielly, D, Maple Leafs
82. Drake Batherson, RW, Senators
83. Jordan Kyrou, RW, Blues
84. Josh Morrissey, D, Jets
85. Brock Nelson, C, Islanders
86. Brandon Hagel, LW, Lightning
87. Pavel Buchnevich, LW, Blues
88. Timo Meier, LW, Devils
89. Claude Giroux, RW, Senators
90. Evgeni Malkin, C, Penguins
91. Anze Kopitar, C, Kings
92. Alex Tuch, RW, Sabres
93. Moritz Seider, D, Red Wings
94. Vince Dunn, D, Kraken
95. Jonathan Marchessault, RW, Golden Knights
96. Connor Ingram, G, Coyotes
97. Matt Boldy, RW, Wild
98. Erik Karlsson, D, Penguins
99. Jared McCann, LW, Kraken
100. Nikolaj Ehlers, RW, Jets

Keller averages 0.74 points per game before the All-Star break and 0.87 after it. He won a lot of people their leagues last spring when he delivered 19-26-45 in 32 games from February onward…It’s time to drink the Stuart Skinner Kool-Aid. It helps that the Oilers are vastly improved defensively under coach Kris Knoblauch. He’s up to a .912 save percentage across 84 games since the start of last season…I expect Thompson to recover next season and believe he’s a strong keeper-league buy – I traded for him in mine – but Buffalo’s offense feels broken this season. I’m bearish in the short term…Boeser’s comeback is a great story, but his underlying metrics haven’t changed much at all year over year. If you can move him and his career-best shooting percentage for an underachiever like Stutzle? Do it…Thomas was on my do-not draft list the past couple years, but he’s finally shooting the puck and delivering career-best numbers as a result. Welcome to the circle of trust, Robert…I gave Lindholm a solid boost after his trade to Vancouver. Even if he’s the No. 2 center, he’ll play in all situations and that should include some power-play looks…Rielly is averaging the most TOI of his career and back to almost point-per-game production. The John Klingberg PP1 threat was just a bad dream…Kyrou since his teary-eyed post-game presser on Dec. 14 after being booed at home: 9-10-19 with 64 shots in 20 games…Meier isn’t just unlucky this season. He seems actually lost, tumbling from 4.19 shots per game last season to 2.88. I’m no longer convinced he’s a good buy low, unless it’s for, say, 60 cents on the dollar…Too low for Ingram? Too high? He’s been a top-five fantasy goalie, but the Coyotes are starting to sag, and he’s on track to exceed 35 starts for just the second time as a pro and first time as an NHLer. I could see a workload-based regression happening.

101. John Tavares, C, Maple Leafs
102. Sean Durzi, D, Coyotes
103. Owen Tippett, RW, Flyers*
104. Filip Hronek, D, Canucks
105. Tyler Toffoli, LW, Devils
106. Mats Zuccarello, RW, Wild
107. Mikhail Sergachev, D, Lightning*
108. Matt Duchene, C, Stars
109. Nick Suzuki, C, Canadiens
110. Evander Kane, LW, Oilers
111. Alex Ovechkin, LW, Capitals
112. MacKenzie Weegar, D, Flames
113. Alex Lyon, G, Red Wings
114. Drew Doughty, D, Kings
115. Shea Theodore, D, Golden Knights*
116. Artturi Lehkonen, LW, Avalanche
117. Cam Talbot, G, Kings
118. Devon Toews, D Avalanche
119. John Carlson, D, Capitals
120. Joey Daccord, G, Kraken
121. Seth Jarvis, RW, Hurricanes
122. Jack Eichel, C, Golden Knights*
123. Jeff Skinner, LW, Sabres
124. Jakob Chychrun, D, Senators
125. Nazem Kadri, C, Flames
126. Brock Faber, D, Wild
127. Lucas Raymond, RW, Red Wings
128. Mason McTavish, C, Ducks
129. Rasmus Andersson, D, Flames
130. Troy Terry, RW, Ducks
131. Leo Carlsson, C, Ducks
132. Lawson Crouse, LW, Coyotes
133. Charlie Coyle, C, Bruins
134. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, G, Sabres
135. Darnell Nurse, D, Oilers
136. Josh Norris, C, Senators
137. Boone Jenner, C, Blue Jackets
138. Luke Hughes, D, Devils
139. Martin Necas, RW, Hurricanes
140. Oliver Bjorkstrand, RW, Kraken
141. Zach Werenski, D, Blue Jackets
142. Blake Coleman, RW, Flames
143. Brent Burns, D, Hurricanes
144. Ivan Barbashev, LW, Golden Knights
145. Thomas Harley, D, Stars
146. Sam Bennett, C, Panthers
147. Ryan O’Reilly, C, Predators
148. Wyatt Johnston, C, Stars
149. Trevor Moore, LW, Kings
150. Mike Matheson, D, Canadiens

Since Jan. 1 alone, even the slumping version of Tavares is second on the Leafs in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60. He’s slowing down at 33, but he’s not completely cooked. Buy low…Durzi is on pace for roughly 15 goals, 50 points, 150 shots, 175 blocks…an underrated combo meal deal on defense in Arizona…Tippett would be higher if he weren’t currently on IR. He has turned into a poor man’s Brady Tkachuk as a banger-league beast…Sergachev and Theodore are ranked reasonably high despite their injuries since they’re expected back fairly soon…Oh, Mr. Ovechkin, what do we do with you? His play-driving metrics suggest age truly has caught up to him. But he’s also scoring on a career-low 6.0 percent of his shots and sits third in the NHL in power play TOI per game. I could see him turning back the clock for a 15-goal heater in the second half based on his role alone…Eichel is a top-50 player when healthy but he might not return until the fantasy playoffs in head-to-head formats…Faber’s past 25 games: 19 points while playing more than 26 minutes a night. The rookie sensation is for real, though college players sometimes hit a wall in the second half while adjusting to their biggest workloads ever…Prediction: the Ducks stop restricting Carlsson’s game load and he leads all rookies in scoring over the rest of this season…even though Columbus is a clown franchise, Jenner remains Jenner, with an 82-game pace exceeding 30 goals, 200 shots, 100 hits. Impressive stuff…Bennett is one of the hotter players in the league, but I’ve kept his ranking conservative since he’s so injury-prone and isn’t a lock to finish the year on Florida’s top line…Johnston, getting a look on Dallas’ top line, has nine points in his past nine games. He could be very interesting in the second half…If you can stomach the plus-minus hit, Matheson helps you in every other category.

151. Gabe Vilardi, RW, Jets
152. Joseph Woll, G, Maple Leafs*
153. Pyotr Kochetkov, G, Hurricanes*
154. Logan Thompson, G, Golden Knights
155. William Karlsson, C, Golden Knights
156. Brayden Schenn, C, Blues
157. Sam Montembeault, G, Canadiens
158. Joel Farabee, LW, Flyers
159. Cole Perfetti, RW, Jets
160. Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, Senators
161. Jake Sanderson, D, Senators
162. Tom Wilson, RW, Capitals
163. Eeli Tolvanen, LW, Kraken
164. Kris Letang, D, Penguins
165. Alexis Lafreniere, RW, Rangers
166. Casey Mittelstadt, C, Sabres
167. Tyler Seguin, RW, Stars
168. Bryan Rust, RW, Penguins
169. Dylan Strome, C, Capitals
170. Yegor Sharangovich, LW, Flames
171. Mason Marchment, LW, Stars
172. Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Red Wings
173. Kirill Marchenko, RW, Blue Jackets
174. Nick Schmaltz, RW, Coyotes
175. Evan Rodrigues, LW, Panthers
176. Logan Cooley, C, Coyotes
177. Patrick Kane, RW, Red Wings*
178. Frank Vatrano, LW, Ducks
179. Pavel Zacha, C, Bruins
180. Filip Gustavsson, G, Wild
181. Quinton Byfield, LW, Kings
182. Tomas Hertl, C, Sharks*
183. Jacob Trouba, D, Rangers
184. Jordan Binnington, G, Blues
185. Charlie Lindgren, G, Capitals
186. Jonathan Drouin, LW, Avalanche
187. Teuvo Teravainen, RW, Hurricanes
188. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Kings
189. Johnny Gaudreau, LW, Blue Jackets
190. Brandon Montour, D, Panthers
191. Connor Bedard, C, Blackhawks*
192. Alex Pietrangelo, D, Golden Knights
193. Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Wild*
194. Valeri Nichushkin, LW, Avalanche*
195. Marco Rossi, C, Wild
196. Sean Couturier, C, Flyers
197. Thomas Chabot, D, Senators
198. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Panthers
199. Ross Colton, C, Avalanche
200. Semyon Varlamov, G, Islanders

I’ve been touting Woll as a league winner and still believe he can be one…but how long can you wait for him if you’re a bubble team in fantasy? He’s still weeks away, not days…Ugh, between Kochetkov, Antti Raanta, Spencer Martin and an on-the-mend Freddie Andersen, whom do you trust in Carolina? The Canes could also acquire another tender. I’d avoid this mess…post-hype breakout Mittelstadt has taken over the “great assist guy who provides little other value” fantasy mantle…half the All-Star Vatrano’s goal total came in his first 14 games. He’s since regressed to just regular old Vatrano…I’ve seen no signs suggesting Dubois and Gaudreau will bust out of their season-long slumps, but they are simply too talented to stay this bad, right? I hate burying Bedard so low, but he isn’t expected back before March…Will we see Nichushkin again this season? Typically, anyone who enters the player assistance program is gone for months at a time, so I’ll be surprised if he returns before April.

201. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, Flames
202. Joel Hofer, G, Blues
203. JJ Peterka, LW, Sabres
204. Jamie Benn, LW, Stars
205. Adam Henrique, LW, Ducks
206. Mattias Maccelli, LW, Coyotes
207. Rickard Rakell, RW, Penguins
208. Neal Pionk, D, Jets
209. Petr Mrazek, G, Blackhawks
210. Logan Couture, C, Sharks
211. Jake Walman, D, Red Wings
212. Cam Atkinson, RW, Flyers
213. Michael Bunting, LW, Hurricanes
214. Gustav Forsling, D, Panthers
215. Jake DeBrusk, LW, Bruins
216. Dylan Guenther, RW, Coyotes
217. Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, Canadiens
218. Matty Beniers, C, Kraken
219. Vitek Vanecek, G, Devils
220. Nico Daws, G, Devils
221. Jamie Drysdale, D, Flyers
222. Samuel Ersson, G, Flyers
223. Darcy Kuemper, G, Capitals
224. Sean Monahan, C, Canadiens
225. Daniel Sprong, RW, Red Wings
226. Nino Niederreiter, LW, Jets
227. Brady Skjei, D, Hurricanes
228. Ryan Hartman, C, Wild
229. Dylan Cozens, C, Sabres
230. Justin Faulk, D, Blues*
231. Joona Korpisalo, G, Senators
232. Aaron Ekblad, D, Panthers
233. Gustav Nyquist, RW, Predators
234. Alex Nedeljkovic, G, Penguins
235. Jonathan Quick, G, Rangers
236. Dawson Mercer, RW, Devils
237. Dakota Joshua, LW, Canucks
238. Andrew Mangiapane, LW, Flames
239. James van Riemsdyk, LW, Bruins
240. Simon Nemec, D, Devils
241. Yegor Chinakhov, RW, Blue Jackets
242. Phillip Danault, C, Kings
243. Trent Frederic, C, Bruins
244. Mattias Ekholm, D, Predators
245. Adam Lowry, C, Jets
246. Nicolas Roy, C, Golden Knights
247. Connor Zary, C, Flames
248. Calvin Pickard, G, Oilers
249. Barrett Hayton, C, Coyotes*
250. Andrei Kuzmenko, RW, Flames

Walman is a specialist. If you need goals and blocks from your D-corps, he’s great at those two things and nothing else… …has Slafkovsky awakened? The big fella has 12 points and 23 hits in his past 18 games…Is it just me, or is no one talking about Beniers’ nightmare sophomore season? I really hope the shooting percentage normalizes and we see some positive signs in the second half…I’m probably being too hard on Ersson given his huge opportunity in Philly, but he has absolutely imploded of late, and his pre-NHL track record never popped. I’m not convinced he’s a No. 1…If your league counts plus-minus, Ekholm can win you the category singlehandedly. He’s plus-44 in 65 games as an Oiler…Don’t forget about Hayton. He was dynamite late last season on Arizona’s top line, and no one has really seized the job during his injury absence. He should return from a hand injury this month…it certainly can’t get worse for Kuzmenko, right? The change of scenery could jumpstart his scoring.

251. Alexander Holtz, RW, Devils
252. Conor Garland, LW, Canucks
253. Andre Burakovsky, RW, Kraken
254. Jake Neighbours, LW, Blues
255. Ilya Samsonov, G, Maple Leafs
256. Chandler Stephenson, C, Golden Knights
257. John Gibson, G, Ducks
258. Anthony Stolarz, G, Panthers
259. David Rittich, G, Kings
260. Karel Vejmelka, G, Coyotes
261. Lukas Dostal, G, Ducks
262. Tony DeAngelo, D, Hurricanes
263. Torey Krug, D, Blues
264. Mikael Backlund, C, Flames
265. Owen Power, D, Sabres
266. Cam Fowler, D, Ducks
267. Noah Hanifin, D, Flames
268. Travis Sanheim, D, Flyers
269. J.T. Compher, C, Avalanche
270. Ridly Greig, C, Senators
271. Antti Raanta, G, Hurricanes
272. Morgan Frost, C, Flyers
273. Jordan Eberle, RW, Kraken
274. Elvis Merzlikins, G, Blue Jackets
275. Alex Killorn, LW, Ducks*
276. Alex Kerfoot, LW, Coyotes
277. Stefan Noesen, LW, Hurricanes
278. Jaccob Slavin, D, Hurricanes
279. Zach Benson, LW, Sabres
280. Devon Levi, G, Sabres
281. Andrew Copp, C, Red Wings
282. Anthony Mantha, LW, Capitals
283. Martin Pospisil, RW, Flames
284. Erik Gustafsson, D, Rangers
285. Dmitri Voronkov, C, Blue Jackets
286. Matt Coronato, RW, Flames
287. Logan O’Connor, RW, Avalanche
288. Bowen Byram, D, Avalanche
289. Nick Paul, C, Lightning
290. Cole Sillinger, C, Blue Jackets
291. Frederik Andersen, G, Hurricanes*
292. Trevor Zegras, C, Ducks*
293. Patrik Laine, RW, Blue Jackets*
294. Shane Pinto, C, Senators
295. David Perron, RW, Red Wings
296. Kyle Palmieri, RW, Islanders
297. Laurent Brossoit, G, Jets
298. Artem Zub, D, Senators
299. Tyson Barrie, D, Predators
300. Warren Foegele, RW, Oilers

Hear me out on DeAngelo: he hasn’t even dressed for a game since Jan. 5, but if he gets moved to a team that actually needs him on its power play, he can be a top-100 player again immediately…My rationale is similar with Merzlikins. He’s not usable right now, but his value could change if he gets dealt to a contender…For a hat trick: Barrie, too. If he’s traded, he could become relevant…Greig’s current pace would make him a 15-goal, 40-point, 100-hit player. He’s one to watch in Ottawa…I planned to have Fantilli at least 100 spots higher, but he’s probably gone for the rest of the fantasy campaign thanks to a skate cut on his leg, so I removed him from the top 300 at the last minute.

ON THE BUBBLE

Mathieu Joseph
Adam Fantilli*
Mikael Granlund*
Anthony Cirelli
Tyler Bertuzzi
Jake Allen
Tommy Novak
Yaroslav Askarov
Matthew Knies
Jack McBain
Cal Petersen
Reilly Smith*
Jake McCabe
Max Pacioretty*
Evgeny Kuznetsov
Viktor Arvidsson*
Nick Robertson

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Matt Larkin’s fantasy hockey midseason top 300 player rankings

ON THE BUBBLE

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