New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick

NY Rangers: 2^nd Metropolitan Division, defeated Pittsburgh 4-3 in first round, defeated Carolina 4-3 in second round.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 3^rd Atlantic Division, defeated Toronto 4-3 in first round, defeated Florida 4-0 in second round.

Schedule (ET)

Wednesday, June 1, 8 p.m.: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (ESPN, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Friday, June 3, 8 p.m.: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (ESPN, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Sunday, June 5, 3 p.m.: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (ESPN, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Tuesday, June 7, 8 p.m.: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (ESPN, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
*Thursday, June 9, 8 p.m.: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (TBD)
*Saturday, June 11, 8 p.m.: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (TBD)
*Tuesday, June 14, 8 p.m.: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (TBD)

The Skinny

It sounds bizarre to ask this question of a team that just reached the Eastern Conference final, but: are the New York Rangers for real? They’ve had as bizarre a route to the final four of any team in recent memory. They rallied from a 3-1 series deficit to beat a Pittsburgh Penguins team that had third-string goaltender Louie Domingue start five games in the series. Against the Carolina Hurricanes, they traded home victories for six consecutive games before triumphing on the road against a team that lost No. 2 netminder Antti Raanta partway through Game 7 and rolled with No. 3 Pyotr Kochetkov the rest of the way. So far this postseason, in 5-on-5 play, the Rangers have been outshot 447-368; out-attempted 818-684; and outchanced 427-308. Yet here they stand, hosting Game 1 of the third round.

So have the Rangers been extremely lucky? Or have they just shown continuity of an opportunistic, bend-but-don’t break style that helped them post 110 points in the regular season? We’re about to find out, as the back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Lightning aren’t going to beat themselves and give the Blueshirts freebies. The well-rested Bolts are fresh off sweeping the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Florida Panthers like they were a speck of dirt. In Andrei Vasilevskiy, they have the one goalie on the planet capable of cancelling the advantage the Rangers have in net with Igor Shesterkin. Now we find out how real the Rangers are.

Head to Head

NY Rangers: 3-0-0

Tampa Bay: 0-2-1

The Rangers outscored Tampa 10-4 in their three victories, all of which were backstopped by Shesterkin, who stood tall with a .958 save percentage including a shutout. Drilling deeper: the games were a microcosm of New York’s season. The Lightning outshot and outchanced the Rangers in each of the games but couldn’t come away with a victory. It was the Shesterkin Show. There’s a reason why he’s a virtual lock to win the Vezina Trophy for 2021-22.

Top Five Scorers (through Round 2)

NY Rangers

Mika Zibanejad: 19 points

Adam Fox: 18 points

Andrew Copp: 12 points

Chris Kreider: 11 points

Artemi Panarin: 11 points

Tampa Bay

Nikita Kucherov: 15 points

Victor Hedman: 10 points

Ross Colton: 8 points

Ondrej Palat: 8 points

Steven Stamkos: 8 points

X-Factor

The Rangers have been the physical aggressor in both their series so far. In Round 1, they played a Penguins team that was the NHL’s third-lightest in average weight. The Rangers, the seventh-heaviest team, had their way, none more than bruising defenseman Jacob Trouba, who earned the ire of Pittsburgh Penguins fans with a hit that knocked Sidney Crosby out of Game 6. The Rangers again had the size advantage over their opponent in Round 2, and Trouba continued to dole out massive blows against the Hurricanes, most notably to Max Domi in Game 4 and Seth Jarvis in Game 7. With the likes of Trouba and K’Andre Miller on defense and Chris Kreider, Ryan Reaves and now-healthy Barclay Goodrow up front, the Rangers have out-heavied their opponents. That ends in Round 3. The Lightning are the NHL’s biggest, heaviest team. Their blueline is more like a city skyline, featuring the towering Victor Hedman, Erik Cernak and Mikhail Sergachev. While their top-six forward group isn’t physically imposing, their depth players bring plenty of sandpaper. Nick Paul in particular has been a disruptive presence in the postseason as a forechecker and penalty killer. And Trouba won’t have nearly as much luck blowing up behemoths like Patrick Maroon. The Rangers, then, will have to find an advantage somewhere else if they hope to upset the champs.

Offense

The Lightning were an above-average offensive club all season despite spending chunks of time without stars Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. In the playoffs, since being shut out in Game 1 of Round 1 against Toronto, the Bolts have found their touch, averaging 3.60 goals per game from Game 2 through 11 – and that’s despite not having Point for all of Round 2 after his scary leg injury in Game 7 of the first round. The Lightning power play hasn’t been the most consistent, but it has shown up in enough games make a difference, like in Game 1 versus Florida, when it converted three times. Kucherov, one of the most dominant playoff performers of his generation, hasn’t truly caught fire yet, but it hasn’t mattered. Tampa’s depth has shone through. It has 10 players with multiple goals in these playoffs and seven players with game-winners. Sniper Steven Stamkos finally started converting chances in Round 2. Remarkably, he has no power-play goals so far this postseason. That stat is likely to change soon.

The Rangers aren’t an elite chance-generating team at 5-on-5. They weren’t all season. But they’re loaded with top-end star power, from Kreider to Artemi Panarin to Mika Zibanejad up front to Adam Fox on defense, and that has yielded a deadly power play all year. They sat fourth in the league at 25.2 percent in the regular season and have somehow been even better in the playoffs, sitting second at 32.5 percent. Being deadly on the power play makes the Rangers a difficult matchup for the Lightning, who have a heck of a time staying out of the penalty box every season. But the Rangers’ strength is also a weakness: since they’ve been so ineffective at 5-on-5, you can shut them down if you shut down their power play.

That said: while the Rangers were criticized for being too top heavy during much of the year, their third line, consisting of slow-blooming first-rounders Alexis Lafreniere, Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko, has had its moments. Chytil in particular popped in the Carolina series, burying four goals.

Defense

The Lightning graded out as above average in most defensive metrics during the regular season and, after weathering the storm early in the Toronto series, have locked it down in the playoffs. The Lightning allowed three goals total against the Panthers, the highest-scoring team this millennium. That said: the Bolts were doing more of a Rangers impression. Tampa rope-a-doped, getting blitzed with shots and chances, even in those victories over Florida. The differences: tremendous goaltending from Vasilevskiy and an extreme willingness, up and down the lineup, to block shots. The Bolts have also bailed themselves out with, as usual, tremendous penalty killing, humming along at 87.8 percent for the postseason. A hallmark of their mini dynasty has been their P.K.

The Rangers had the poorest 5-on-5 defensive metrics of any team on the Eastern Conference side of the bracket to start the playoffs – despite some signs of improvement down the stretch. In the postseason, it’s been more of the same. They have the highest expected goals against per 60 of all 16 teams in the field this postseason. They’ve been outshot and outchanced in 11 of 14 games – and when we factor in that they’ve been the most prolific shot blocking team in the playoffs, think about how many other chances have been thrown at them. They simply don’t have the puck when they’re not on the power play. Their style is not sustainable on paper, but it hasn’t mattered so far in the playoffs thanks to goaltending.

Goaltending

Shesterkin’s wobbles early in the Pittsburgh series are like a bad dream now. He’s found his groove and resumed playing like the best goalie on Earth, armed with unrivalled speed and reflexes. Since being pulled in Games 3 and 4 of Round 1, he’s posted a .939 save percentage in 10 starts. He’s the busiest goalie there is, almost always tasked with stopping more chances and higher-quality chances than his opponent. No starter in the 2021-22 postseason faces more high-danger chances per 60 at 5-on-5. But Shesterkin does his best work when he’s in a rhythm, getting peppered.

Still, the Rangers can’t count on skirting by with The Best Goalie in the World this time, as they’re facing The Best Goalie of this Generation in Vasilevskiy, who allowed three or more goals in his first six games in the playoffs before deciding to never get scored on again, apparently. Since Game 7 of the Toronto series, he has a staggering .978 save percentage. He has six shutouts in his past seven series-clinching games. It doesn’t matter how spectacular Shesterkin looks at the other end. Nothing will rattle ‘Vasy.’

Injuries

Point hasn’t suited up since getting his leg caught in the boards during Game 7 against the Leafs and hobbling off. He’s reportedly inching closer to a return, but his recovery timeline remains cloudy and he’s not expected to play in Game 1. With Goodrow back, the Rangers have no significant injuries at the moment – unless you count the season-ender suffered by Sammy Blais back in November.

Intangibles

This series will come down to where it’s played – not geographically, but situationally. If the Lightning can keep it clean and tilt the action to 5-on-5 play, they have a significant edge. It’ll be the Rangers’ job to anger the Bolts, get them off their game and make for a chippy affair. That’s why Trouba – and Reaves for that matter – will be crucial, especially early in the series when the Rangers have the raucous home crowd behind them at Madison Square Garden. If they can drag Tampa into the gutter and turn the Eastern Conference final into a power-play series, we could have a fair fight.

CONSENSUS SERIES PREDICTION

The Rangers have too many bad habits. They allow oodles of chances, rely on Shesterkin to rescue them and don’t generate enough at 5-on-5. The Penguins and Hurricanes couldn’t punish them for those tendencies. The champs will, though. Lightning in six.

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