NHL betting preview (Jan. 31): Blues vs. Avalanche odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Friday’s Central Division matchup between the St. Louis Blues and Colorado Avalanche.
Blues vs. Avalanche Odds
- St. Louis Blues Moneyline: +155
- Colorado Avalanche Moneyline: -185
- Puck Line: Blues +1.5 (-160), Avalanche -1.5 (+135)
- Game Total: 6 (Over +100, Under -120)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Blues (23-28 SU, 27-24 ATS, 20-26-5 O/U)
St. Louis seemed to be turning things around in Jim Montgomery’s first month behind the bench, going 8-4-3 between Nov. 25 and Dec. 27. However, they’ve since gone 6-8, with four losses in their last five games.
At even strength, the Blues have performed well over the past month, ranking 12th in expected goals percentage and fourth in goal share. Only three teams have scored more even-strength goals per 60 minutes in that span, and just seven have done a better job preventing goals at even strength.
While the power play has been outstanding—converting 30 percent of its opportunities over the last month and performing well overall under Montgomery—the penalty kill has been the worst in the league for more than two months. In 29 games with Montgomery behind the bench, St. Louis has killed off just 68.2 percent of its penalties.
Goaltending has been decent, but neither Jordan Binnington nor Joel Hofer has provided a real lift, an issue that has persisted all season. Binnington, in particular, has been trending in the wrong direction, ranking 60th out of 68 goaltenders in goals saved above expected over the last month, according to Evolving Hockey.
Handicapping the Avalanche (29-23 SU, 19-33 ATS, 25-24-3 O/U)
Colorado is back home after an unsuccessful three-game Eastern Conference road trip. The Avalanche picked up a win against the Rangers, but that victory was sandwiched between losses to the Bruins and Islanders.
December was good to Colorado, as the team went 10-3, but after carrying a six-game win streak into January, the Avalanche have gone 6-8 straight-up, with losses in four of their last five games.
At even strength, the Avalanche have controlled play well over the last month, ranking fourth in shot attempt percentage. However, they’ve managed just a 49 percent share of both expected goals and actual goals. They remain a top-10 team in goals per 60 minutes but also rank among the bottom five in goals against per 60.
On special teams, Colorado’s penalty kill has been red hot, successfully killing off 87.1 percent of penalties over the last month. But the power play has been ice cold—the Avalanche have the league’s second-worst power play since Dec. 31, converting just 10.3 percent of their opportunities.
Friday’s matchup will mark the first meeting of the season between the Blues and Avalanche, who will play each other four times between now and April 5. Colorado is 7-3 straight-up in its past 10 meetings against the Blues, with the two teams going 6-3-1 to the under.
Best bet for Blues vs. Avalanche
- Dylan Holloway Over 0.5 Points (+100) at Sports Interaction
Dylan Holloway (16-22—38) has been a valuable addition to the Blues’ lineup, but his season truly took off after Montgomery took over. Holloway managed just four goals and four assists in his first 22 games, but since the coaching change, he has recorded 12 goals and 18 assists in 29 games. He also ranks second on the team in shots since Nov. 25.
Holloway leads the Blues in points over the last 10 games, tallying two goals and seven assists, and he has registered at least one point in 12 of 16 games since Dec. 23, when he notched his first career hat trick. The 23-year-old has been skating on a line with Brayden Schenn and Jordan Kyrou, and he also has a spot on the team’s top power play unit.
- Martin Necas Anytime Goal (+220) at Sports Interaction
Martin Necas has scored just two goals in his last 26 games and has yet to find the back of the net in three games with the Avalanche. However, it’s not for lack of effort. Necas leads Colorado in expected goals since joining the team and ranks second in shot attempts, firing 22 in three games.
Playing alongside Nathan MacKinnon—who will always be the team’s primary shot generator—Necas has still had plenty of scoring chances and holds a prime spot on the top power play unit. In other words, it’s only a matter of time before he breaks through, and Sports Interaction is offering the best odds on that happening Friday.