NHL betting preview (Nov. 14): Canadiens vs. Wild odds
Montreal enters Thursday’s game in Minnesota as a big underdog, as it has not defeated the Wild in the Kirill Kaprizov era.
Canadiens vs. Wild Odds
- Montreal Canadiens Moneyline: +220
- Minnesota Wild Moneyline: -275
- Puck Line: Canadiens +1.5 (-115), Wild -1.5 (-105)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Canadiens (5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
Montreal snapped a six-game losing streak with its 7-5 win in a matinee game against the Buffalo Sabres on Monday. The Canadiens will wrap up their four-game road trip on Thursday against the Wild before returning home to play nine of their next 12 games in Montreal. However, based on the odds, the Canadiens are likely going to end up on the losing end again. The Canadiens are currently +220 moneyline underdogs, which means they are expected to lose this game nearly 70 percent of the time, and rightfully so.
By most metrics, the Canadiens are one of the worst teams in the league, if not the worst. Montreal ranks second-last in five-on-five shot attempt percentage and expected goal percentage. And, while they do grade out as a middle of the pack team in terms of five-on-five scoring, no team has allowed more goals in that situation. In fact, no team has allowed more goals, period. According to Evolving Hockey, Montreal ranks 29th in expected goals against and 30th in shot attempts against (per 60) in all situations.
Handicapping the Wild (10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS, 7-6-2 O/U)
As mentioned, Montreal has not been victorious against the Wild since Kaprizov joined the team. In fact, Minnesota is 7-0 going back to the 2019-20 season, and Montreal has scored two or fewer goals in four out of the past five meetings. That’s not a good sign considering Minnesota has held opponents to two or fewer goals in 10 out of 15 games this season.
Minnesota is currently ranked seventh in expected goals percentage at five-on-five, according to Evolving Hockey, and no team has a better goal share. The Wild have outscored teams by 1.24 goals at five-on-five per 60 minutes. Only the Capitals have been better. However, it’s not offense that is the team’s bread and butter, it’s defense. No team has allowed fewer expected goals at five-on-five, and only three teams have done a better job suppressing shots on goal.
The Wild have been mediocre on special teams, ranking 13th on the power play and 24th on the penalty kill, while the Canadiens rank ninth on the man advantage and 16th on the kill, but the Wild can make up for it with their stellar five-on-five play and good goaltending from starter Filip Gustavsson, who ranks seventh in goals saved above expected out of 23 eligible goaltenders who have faced at least 400 unblocked shot attempts this season. Montreal’s starter, Samuel Montembeault, is currently ranked 19th out of 23.
Best Bets for Canadiens vs. Wild
Kirill Kaprizov Over 1.5 Points (+100) at Sports Interaction
Kaprizov trails Nathan MacKinnon by just five points in the league scoring race, with 28 points in 15 games. Despite playing two fewer games, Kaprizov is scoring at nearly the same pace as last season’s MVP. He has posted 10 multi-point games this season, including nine in his last 12 appearances. Minnesota has dominated this matchup, largely thanks to Kaprizov’s strong performances. In six career games against Montreal, he tallied four goals and seven assists, recording multi-points in four of those contests. This track record makes Kaprizov an appealing bet to score two or more points on Thursday at even money odds.