NHL betting preview (Nov. 18): Washington vs. Utah odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Monday’s matchup between the Washington Capitals and the Utah Hockey Club.
Washington vs. Utah Odds
- Washington Capitals Moneyline: -105
- Utah Hockey Club Moneyline: -115
- Puck Line: Capitals +1.5 (-250), Utah +1.5 (+200)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Matchup
The Capitals aim to complete a sweep of their three-game road trip after 5-2 victories over Colorado on Friday and Vegas on Sunday, improving their road record to 4-2. Utah is 1-1 on its homestand, following a 4-1 win against Carolina and a 4-2 loss to Vegas, bringing its home record to 4-3-1. Last season, Washington lost both games to the team formerly known as the Arizona Coyotes by a combined 11-2, though it had won three of the previous four matchups, all via shutout.
Handicapping the Washington Capitals (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS, 10-6-1 O/U)
Washington is arguably the most improved team this season, rebounding from last year when it fell short of a playoff-caliber performance. The Capitals sit just one point behind the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils in the Metropolitan Division, with four games in hand on the Devils. Their success has been fueled by a league-best offensive output, leading all teams with 4.23 goals per 60 minutes. They also rank first in five-on-five scoring and second in expected goals (per 60) at five-on-five, but 27th on the power play.
Driving this offensive surge is Alex Ovechkin, who continues to chase history. With a hat trick in his last game, Ovechkin has 13 goals in 17 games, tying him with Leon Draisaitl for the league lead and putting him on pace for a 60-plus goal season. Now just 29 goals shy of breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record, Ovechkin’s pursuit has energized the Capitals. His linemates, Dylan Strome (5-21–26) and Aliaksei Protas (6-11–17), have been key contributors, while the trio of Connor McMichael (12-7–19), Pierre-Luc Dubois (1-10–11), and Tom Wilson (6-7–13) has bolstered Washington’s depth scoring.
Defensively, Washington ranks fourth on the penalty kill and 10th in goals against per 60 minutes, but its underlying numbers tell a different story. According to Evolving Hockey, the Capitals are the ninth-worst team in expected goals against and 10th-worst in shot attempts against. Strong goaltending from Logan Thompson, who ranks 12th in goals saved above expected among goaltenders facing at least 300 unblocked shot attempts, has masked some of these issues. Meanwhile, Charlie Lindgren has been serviceable, but he has struggled at times and this game presents an opportunity for him to build on his strong recent outing.
Handicapping the Utah Hockey Club (7-10 SU, 9-8 ATS, 6-9-2 O/U)
Just about everything about the Utah Hockey Club screams mediocrity. Whether we’re talking about offense or defense, the team ranks among the middle of the pack in categories like shots, expected goals, goals at five-on-five, while ranking among the bottom-five teams on both the power play and the penalty kill. Utah does rank as the sixth-best team in terms of generating shot attempts at five-on-five, but not many of those attempts make it to the opposing goal, as the team ranks 25th in shots on goal.
Utah has picked up just three wins in its last 11 games after starting out 4-2 straight-up, and while injuries, particularly on the team’s blue line, have contributed to their struggles, goaltending has also been a sore spot. Last season, Connor Ingram had a breakout season, ranking 15th in goals saved above expected, while Karel Vejmelka was closer to league average. This season, Ingram ranks second-worst in goals saved above expected, while Vejmelka ranks 16th.
However, Vejmelka only has one win so far this season and he has started three of the last five games, so I’m willing to bet that Utah head coach Andre Tourigny turns back to Ingram on Monday. Ingram started 12 of Utah’s first 15 games, but he hasn’t played since Nov. 9 and rust should be a concern. The 27-year-old has allowed three goals or more in eight out of 12 starts this season, and that’s not the kind of form you want to see heading into a game against the league’s hottest offense.
Best Bets for Washington vs. Utah
Washington Capitals Moneyline (-105) at Sports Interaction
This is a bigger mismatch than the odds suggest. In fact, the odds don’t suggest it’s much of a mismatch at all, as the betting market has shifted throughout the morning. Washington was originally a small -115 favorite on the moneyline, but apparently the sharp money is on Utah, which is now listed at -115. This is exactly the type of line movement I was looking for, as someone who believes the Capitals are being undervalued, almost as much as Utah is being overvalued, so I recommend keeping it simple, and taking the Capitals to win outright at -105 odds.