NHL Betting Preview (Oct. 23): Flyers at Capitals Odds

Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) smiles during a stoppage in play against the Columbus Blue Jackets in the second period at Capital One Arena.

Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Coming off a commanding 4-1 win against the Philadelphia Flyers, the Washington Capitals head into Wednesday’s rematch as -140 favorites.

Flyers vs. Capitals Odds

Washington Capitals Moneyline: –140
Philadelphia Flyers Moneyline: +120
Puck Line: Flyers +1.5 (-210), Capitals +1.5 (+170)
Game Total: 6 (Over -105, Under -115)

Odds via Sports Interaction.

Matchup

Last season, the Philadelphia Flyers surprised many with their strong start and playoff push, but this year, they’re the worst team in the Eastern Conference—let alone the Metropolitan Division—after dropping five straight games.

The Capitals, on the other hand, have surged to a 4-1 start, looking far more complete than the team that scraped into the playoffs last season with the worst goal differential of any team in the salary cap era.

According to Evolving Hockey, the Capitals owned 65 percent of the shots and 62 percent of the expected goals at five-on-five in Tuesday’s win. Washington is 10-6-1 against Philadelphia dating back to the start of the 2020-21 season, including three straight victories.

Best Bets for Capitals vs. Flyers

Over 6 Goals (-105) at Sports Interaction

Charlie Lindgren continued his dominance over the Flyers on Tuesday, improving his record to 4-0-2 in six career games against Philadelphia. However, Logan Thompson will start on Wednesday. Thompson has won both of his first two starts as a member of the Capitals, but he did allow five goals in his last outing.

On the flip side, Flyers starter Samuel Ersson had his worst start of the season, so backup Ivan Fedotov will almost certainly make his sixth career start in the second half of the back-to-back. Fedotov has pedigree, but he’s allowed 20 goals on 108 shots since joining the team late last season, including five goals allowed in his two starts this season.

The game total is lower because the Flyers are a low-event team, ranking among the bottom-10 in expected goals for and against and Washington has been one of the best defensive teams so far. Additionally, Washington was just 36-40-6 to the over last season, while Philadelphia went just 35-43-5 to the over.

That said, Philadelphia is 4-0-1 to the over with Fedotov in goal as those games have seen 8.8 goals scored on average and Washington ranks sixth on offense so far this season, despite just one goal from Alex Ovechkin. This is also the first time the Capitals have been in a back-to-back situation, and goals were scored in bunches the last time the Flyers played a back-to-back. Let’s hope that’s the case on Wednesday.