NHL betting preview (Dec. 30): Rangers vs. Panthers odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Monday’s matchup between the New York Rangers and Florida Panthers.
Rangers vs. Panthers Odds
- New York Rangers Moneyline: +165
- Florida Panthers Moneyline: -200
- Puck Line: Rangers +1.5 (-150), Panthers -1.5 (+125)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Rangers (16-19 SU, 11-24 ATS, 15-19-1 O/U)
The Rangers head into this game on a three-game losing streak, their third streak of three games or more in the last five weeks. New York has dropped 14 of its last 18 games and hasn’t won back-to-back games since a three-game win streak between Nov. 14 and 19. In other words, the Rangers have really struggled against top-tier competition, with only five wins coming against teams currently in a playoff spot, and four of those being Wild Card teams.
New York dropped back-to-back games heading into the holiday break, losing 3-1 to the Carolina Hurricanes at home and then getting shut out 5-0 by New Jersey on the road. The Rangers resumed their road trip on Saturday, only to lose 6-2 to the Tampa Bay Lightning. New York is 2-8 straight-up in its last 10 road games and 9-9 on the season. The Rangers dropped their only trip to Florida last season, losing 4-3 on Dec. 29. New York lost the regular season series 1-2. The Rangers also lost two of three away games against the Panthers when Florida eliminated the Rangers from the Eastern Conference Final in six games.
Per Evolving Hockey, New York currently ranks 25th in five-on-five expected goals percentage, 22nd in shot attempts percentage, and 24th in goal share. However, since the start of November, no team has a worse goal differential (per 60 minutes) in all situations. Igor Shesterkin isn’t really the problem—he’s allowed two or fewer goals in seven of his last 10 starts and ranks fourth in goals saved above expected year-to-date. New York just isn’t scoring. In fact, since Nov. 21, when the losing streak began, no team has scored fewer goals per 60 than the Rangers.
Will Cuylle has been the team’s best forward after Artemi Panarin, who is the only player scoring more than a point per game this season. However, aside from Panarin, Cuylle, Adam Fox, and Vincent Trocheck, no other players have reached double-digit production over the last 18 games.
Handicapping the Panthers (22-15 SU, 16-21 ATS, 20-16-1 O/U)
Florida is coming off back-to-back shutout losses—one before the break and one after. Surprisingly, the Panthers have been shut out four times in their last eight games. Despite this, they remain tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs for first place in the Atlantic Division. Even with an 11-11 straight-up record since Nov. 12. Something has to give for the Panthers, though, as they rank among the top five teams in several key metrics.
The Panthers sit fifth in five-on-five expected goals percentage and second in shot attempt percentage, but rank 19th in goal share due to subpar goaltending. According to Evolving Hockey, Sergei Bobrovsky is among the bottom 10 goaltenders (minimum 500 unblocked shots faced) in goals saved above expected and ranks 34th out of 47 goaltenders in save percentage.
Offensively, the Panthers are a top-10 team, averaging 3.32 goals per 60 minutes. However, despite grading as the sixth-best team in expected goals against, their middling goaltending leaves them in the middle of the pack for goals against. It isn’t always bad, as the Panthers have held seven of their last 15 opponents to two or fewer goals, but more consistency is needed.
Florida has three players: Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, and captain Aleksander Barkov, producing more than a point per game, but no player has more than eight points over the past 10 games.
Reinhart leads the team in scoring with 22 goals and 45 points in 35 games, but he’s been inconsistent as of late. After scoring 57 goals last season, Reinhart carried that momentum into this season with 18 goals in his first 24 games. However, he has cooled off, scoring just four goals in his last 13 outings.
Tkachuk is next, with 13 goals and 35 points in 32 games, but his production has also been streaky. While he’s been consistent at picking up points, his goal-scoring has dipped compared to his back-to-back 40-plus goal seasons. Tkachuk tallied 26 goals in 80 games last season and now appears more likely to settle in as a 30-goal scorer.
Best bets for Panthers vs. Rangers
Although neither team is playing their best hockey right now, Florida deserves to be a significant moneyline favorite. That said, betting on the Panthers to win at -200 odds doesn’t offer much value. However, one player prop stands out as a clear value bet.
- Gustav Forsling Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (+105) at Sports Interaction
This player prop has me questioning whether sportsbooks are paying attention. Gustav Forsling leads the Panthers in shots on goal with 75 over the last 27 games. He’s recorded three or more shots on goal in seven of his last 10 outings, including exactly four in each of his last three games. During this stretch, he’s hit a ceiling of nine shots on goal and also registered six in a single game. Considering New York ranks third-worst in shots against per 60 minutes this season, it’s borderline insane for Forsling’s odds of hitting three or more shots to be this long. Some sportsbooks even offer alternate shots-on-goal props, so three is just a starting point—Forsling could easily exceed a higher total given his form and the Rangers’ struggles to limit shots.