NHL betting preview (March 3): Senators vs. Capitals odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Monday’s matchup between the Ottawa Senators and Washington Capitals.
Senators vs. Capitals Odds
- Ottawa Senators Moneyline: +120
- Washington Capitals Moneyline: -145
- Puck Line: Senators +1.5 (-200), Capitals -1.5 (+165)
- Game Total: 5.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Senators (30-29 SU, 25-34 ATS, 22-31-6 O/U)
Ottawa snapped its five-game losing streak with a 5-3 win over the San Jose Sharks on Saturday and will now hit the road for two games, starting with a matchup against the Washington Capitals on Monday. The Senators are two points behind the Detroit Red Wings for the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference.
Brady Tkachuk and Shane Pinto both scored in their returns from injury. Tkachuk had missed two games following the 4 Nations Face-Off, while Pinto had been out for four games. Josh Norris also returned from a six-game absence, bringing the Senators’ forward group back to full strength. However, there is concern over Jake Sanderson’s availability for Monday after he left the game with less than two minutes remaining following a dangerous cross-check from Tyler Toffoli. There was no update on his status postgame.
Tim Stutzle extended his points streak to 11 games and will have a chance to set a new franchise record on Monday. Stutzle assisted on Tkachuk’s goal, marking the 10th game in a row he picked up a helper. If he records another assist against the Capitals, he’ll break the record jointly held by Tkachuk and Mark Stone for assists in consecutive games.
Ottawa didn’t play a strong game against San Jose, controlling just 29 percent of the expected goals—its worst home performance of the season by that metric. The Senators controlled only 43 percent of the shot attempts and were outshot 37-31, but goaltender Linus Ullmark made 34 saves to secure the win.
From a betting perspective, the Senators have not been a profitable moneyline bet this season, though they were before their recent skid. Betting one unit on Ottawa to win every game this season would result in a loss of roughly one unit, while backing them in every road game would yield a loss of almost four units. The Senators have been a decent underdog bet overall, but less so on the road, where they have won nine of 22 games as away underdogs.
Handicapping the Capitals (38-22 SU, 36-24 ATS, 27-30-3 O/U)
Washington is looking to end its longest losing streak of the season on Monday after dropping its last three games. The Capitals are coming off losses to the Calgary Flames, St. Louis Blues, and Tampa Bay Lightning, but they still have a 10-point lead on the Carolina Hurricanes for first place in the Metropolitan Division.
The Capitals had been on fire offensively, scoring four or more goals in seven consecutive games, but over their last three games, they’ve scored just four goals combined: one against the Flames, two against the Blues, and one against the Lightning. There was one bright spot, however, as captain Alex Ovechkin scored his 31st goal of the season on Saturday, meaning he needs just 11 more goals to break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal scoring record.
Ovechkin has 38 goals in 59 career games versus Ottawa, including 11 goals in his last 13 games dating back to the 2019-20 season, but the Capitals have gone 5-8 straight-up versus the Senators since the start of the 2021-22 season.
According to Evolving Hockey, Washington has posted the fourth-best goal share at even strength since Jan. 1, while Ottawa ranks 31st in that category. However, there’s really not much separating these two teams when it comes to statistics like expected goals and shot attempt percentage. Neither club has looked strong in that regard.
Additionally, while Washington has been the most profitable moneyline bet this season, the Capitals have not been a profitable bet as home favorites. Washington is 11-8 as a home favorite this season, and betting one unit on the Caps to win all of those games would have resulted in a loss of nearly two units.
Best bets for Senators vs. Capitals
- Washington Capitals Moneyline (-145) at Pinnacle
Monday’s game will mark the third and final meeting between the Capitals and Senators this season, with both teams earning a win, but Washington dominated both games through the lens of five-on-five expected goals. That said, six of the last 10 meetings between these two clubs have gone to overtime or a shootout, including both meetings this season. However, Logan Thompson will start on Monday, and he is 4-0-1 with a 2.00 goals against average and a .939 save percentage against the Senators in his career.