NHL betting preview (Dec. 13): Senators vs. Hurricanes odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Friday’s matchup between the Ottawa Senators and Carolina Hurricanes.
Senators vs. Hurricanes Odds
- Ottawa Senators Moneyline: +170
- Carolina Hurricanes Moneyline: -200
- Puck Line: Senators +1.5 (-150), Hurricanes -1.5 (+125)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -120, Under +100)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Senators (13-15 SU, 11-17 ATS, 12-12-4 O/U)
After starting the season 8-6-1, the Senators hit a five-game losing streak but have since turned things around with a 5-2-1 record. However, they haven’t faced any of the league’s top teams during this stretch, and historically, they’ve struggled against the Carolina Hurricanes. Ottawa lost 4-0 in Carolina on Nov. 16, marking its seventh loss in the last 10 meetings with the Hurricanes. They’ve also dropped their last four games in Raleigh, including two shutout losses, and failed to cover the puck line in five of the past seven matchups.
Ottawa has the makings of a solid team, but there’s still something missing. According to Evolving Hockey, the Senators rank in the top 10 in key metrics like shots, shot attempts, and expected goals for and against. Only two teams, including Carolina, generate more five-on-five shots per 60 minutes. While the Hurricanes rank first in expected goals per 60 minutes, Ottawa sits 15th. I guess that’s why Carolina is a top-five offensive team and Ottawa is just outside the bottom 10.
Defensively, the Senators rank third in five-on-five expected goals against but 20th in actual goals against, highlighting their goaltending struggles. Anton Forsberg started the season strong, while Linus Ullmark took time to find his form, but the roles have reversed. Forsberg is now struggling, while Ullmark is starting to look like a top goaltender again. Over the past month, 59 goaltenders have faced at least 100 unblocked shot attempts. Ullmark ranks 15th in goals saved above expected, while Forsberg sits at 52nd.
Handicapping the Hurricanes (18-9-1 SU, 15-13 ATS, 12-13-3 O/U)
Carolina looked unstoppable early on, winning 14 of its first 18 games, but the Hurricanes have cooled off recently, losing six of their last 10. Over that stretch, no team has allowed more goals per 60 minutes than Carolina’s 3.97. This is unfamiliar territory for a team that has been a top-10 defensive powerhouse for six straight seasons, ranking fourth, second, first, and fourth in goals against per 60 minutes over the past four years.
The Hurricanes have leaned heavily on goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov, with Spencer Martin stepping in as backup while Frederik Andersen remains sidelined. Kochetkov has struggled recently, but Martin has been awful, allowing four or more goals in five of his eight starts with the Hurricanes so now Dustin Tokarski is serving as the backup. Kochetkov has allowed four goals or more in three of his last five starts, but he had held opponents to two or fewer goals in eight of his first 12 games and only allowed four goals twice.
It’s not all on the goaltenders, either. The Hurricanes actually grade out as a bottom-10 team in expected goals against over their last 10 games. Additionally, Carolina was the third-best offensive team through its first 18 games, but the Hurricanes have fallen to 12th in goals per 60 minutes over the last 10 games and I don’t believe it can be simply summed up by poor shooting luck. The Hurricanes rank 16th in expected goals per 60 since Nov. 21, while Ottawa ranks among the top 10, according to Evolving Hockey.
Without a doubt, the Hurricanes are the better team and deserve to be a big favorite in this matchup, but current form is an important factor to consider when handicapping. That’s why the sharp money is on the Senators, who opened with +180 moneyline odds, but I’m focusing on a player prop instead.
Best Bet for Senators vs. Hurricanes
- Shayne Gostisbehere Over 0.5 Points (-120) at Sports Interaction
Shayne Gostisbehere has registered at least a point in 11 of his last 14 games. His 16 points during that time is good for third on the team, just one point behind Sebastian Aho and three points behind Martin Necas. Gostisbehere is tied for 25th in scoring among defenseman this season, and a big reason for that is his spot on the top power-play unit. No defender has put up more than Gostisbehere’s 17 power-play points this season, and only Necas and last season’s Art Ross winner, Nikita Kucherov, have more power-play points league-wide. It also doesn’t hurt that Ottawa has the ninth-worst penalty kill in the NHL.