NHL betting preview (Dec. 6): Stars vs. Golden Knights odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Friday’s matchup between the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights.
These teams haven’t met since last season’s playoffs, when Dallas rallied from a 2-0 series deficit to eliminate Vegas in a tight seven-game first-round showdown. Four games were decided by one goal, the rest by two, with the series ending in a 16-16 cumulative score. Despite the postseason drama, their last regular-season meeting was back on December 9, 2023. Vegas swept the 2023-24 season series and is 5-1-3 in the last 10 regular-season matchups with Dallas.
Stars vs. Golden Knights Odds
- Dallas Stars Moneyline: -120
- Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline: +100
- Puck Line: Stars -1.5 (+200), Golden Knights +1.5 (-250)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Stars (16-9 SU, 12-13 ATS, 9-13-3 O/U)
Friday’s game wraps up a three-game road trip for the Stars, who beat Utah 2-1 before losing 3-2 to Los Angeles. After this, Dallas starts a six-game homestand—a big chance to close the six-point gap behind Winnipeg and Minnesota in the standings. Though they entered the season as Central Division favorites, the Stars have struggled on the road, going 6-7, but they’ve been dominant at home with a league-best 10-2 record.
Dallas is favored in the betting market, likely due to their strong underlying metrics. The Stars grade out as a top-10 team by most advanced metrics, while Vegas’s numbers are less impressive under the surface. Still, the defensive gap between them isn’t huge. Dallas ranks fourth in goals against and fifth in shot attempts against, but they’re just 15th in expected goals against, according to Evolving Hockey. Both teams allow similar rates of high-danger shots, so defensively, they’re closer than they seem.
Jake Oettinger has a solid track record against Vegas, going 4-1-2 with a 2.04 goals-against average and a .929 save percentage in seven regular-season games. But Adin Hill was perfect against Dallas last season, winning both starts and stopping 55 of 58 shots.
Handicapping the Golden Knights (17-10 SU, 15-12 ATS, 16-10-1 O/U)
Only four teams have a better home win percentage than the Golden Knights since 2017-18. That’s true again this season, with Vegas winning 10 of its first 13 games at The Fortress. They’ve dropped three of their last five at home, but that doesn’t really reflect their current form. Sure, they had their worst home game of the season on Nov. 30, losing 6-0 to Utah, but they bounced back a few days later with a 1-0 shutout against Edmonton. Plus, Vegas has been on the road for 11 of its last 17 games and still managed to win six of its last eight overall.
Vegas is scoring 3.48 goals per 60 minutes, good for seventh in the league, while allowing 2.89 goals per 60, which ranks ninth. Those numbers have dipped lately—they rank 20th offensively and 14th defensively over the last month—but there’s no need to panic.
First, the schedule has been brutal. This is their 10th game in 17 days, and it hasn’t been any easier for the Stars, who are also playing their 10th in 18 days.
Second, Hill has been stellar. Over his last 12 games, he’s allowed two or fewer goals in eight of them and ranks fifth in goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey. While Vegas’s defensive ranking has slipped, it’s actually allowed fewer goals per 60 minutes in the last month—it’s just that other teams have raised their level.
Third, Mark Stone might be back. He practiced in a regular jersey for the first time on Tuesday, which Bruce Cassidy called a key step toward his return. He wasn’t expected to play against Edmonton or Anaheim, but given how close he is, I’m hoping he suits up against Dallas.
Best Bets for Stars vs. Golden Knights
- Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline (+100) at Sports Interaction
Before Stone’s injury on Nov. 6, only one team had scored more goals than Vegas. If the captain returns, it’ll be a big boost. The odds will shift quickly too, so I’m looking to get ahead of any potential news. Sure, it’s a bit of a gamble given Stone’s history of extended absences, but I think it’s worth the risk at even money. Others might prefer to wait for more certainty, and that’s fair—it just depends on how strongly you feel about it.