NHL betting preview (Dec. 20): Utah Hockey Club vs. Minnesota Wild odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Friday’s matchup between the Utah Hockey Club and Minnesota Wild.
Utah vs. Minnesota Odds
- Utah Hockey Club Moneyline: +110
- Minnesota Wild Moneyline: -130
- Puck Line: Utah +1.5 (-225), Minnesota -1.5 (+135)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -105, Under -115)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Utah Hockey Club (15-16 SU, 18-13 ATS, 12-16-3 O/U)
The Hockey Club is a perfect 3-0 since their 5-4 shootout loss at home to Minnesota on Dec. 10 and hold an 8-2-2 record over their last 12 games. Utah has also won eight of its last 11 road games, including the last six in a row, and now boasts a 10-6-2 record away from home this season.
Per Evolving Hockey, Utah ranks 12th in five-on-five expected goals percentage and 10th in shots percentage on the season. Over the last month, however, they’ve improved to 10th and third in those categories, respectively. Since Nov. 19, only six teams have scored more five-on-five goals per 60 minutes, and no team has allowed fewer. Strong defensive play and excellent goaltending from Karel Vejmelka have been key, as he ranks fourth in goals saved above expected and 12th in save percentage.
Backup goaltender Jaxson Stauber has also stepped up in Connor Ingram’s absence. After a rough start to the season for Ingram, Stauber has delivered with a .962 save percentage in two starts, including a shutout win over the Vegas Golden Knights and a solid outing against the Philadelphia Flyers, allowing just two goals on 26 shots. However, with Utah set to play three games in four days before the holiday break, Stauber will likely start one of the back-to-back games on Sunday or Monday.
Minnesota opened as a -155 moneyline favorite on Thursday, but with Vejmelka expected to start, the Wild’s odds have since dropped to -130. As a result, the underdog Hockey Club’s odds improved from +130 to +110. While Utah was an excellent underdog bet early, the betting market has quickly adjusted, and the value is no longer there.
Handicapping the Minnesota Wild (20-12 SU, 16-16 ATS, 14-16-2 O/U)
Minnesota was the best team in the league when it visited Utah for the first time this season, and the home team was playing its third game in four days. This time around, the Wild are coming off three losses in their last four games, including a 6-1 blowout loss at home against the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers. Additionally, both Utah and Minnesota are on equal rest this time around.
However, the biggest difference between this matchup and the last meeting is that goaltender Filip Gustavsson has missed the last three games, leaving Marc-Andre Fleury to assume the job of starting goaltender. Gustavsson last appeared on Dec. 12 and allowed five goals on 26 shots against the Edmonton Oilers. He did not play the third period and is currently listed day-to-day. First-round pick (2021) Jesper Wallstedt has also started one game in Gustavsson’s absence, allowing three goals on 27 shots in 3-2 loss to the Golden Knights.
Fleury, who ranks 70th out of 79 goaltenders in goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey, is a big step down from Gustavsson, who ranks seventh in that category. Kirill Kaprizov has stepped up big time, too, scoring four goals in his last three games. Unfortunately, that’s the same amount of goals the rest of the team has scored in the last four games.
The Wild did get Mats Zuccarello and Jonas Brodin back in the lineup recently, but Joel Eriksson Ek hasn’t played since Dec. 3 and he is arguably the team’s best defensive forward. There is some good news, though, as Brock Faber practiced on Friday morning and looked fine after being hit by a puck late in Wednesday’s game versus the Panthers.
Best Bets for Utah vs. Minnesota
- Dylan Guenther Anytime Goal (+250) at Sports Interaction
Minnesota remains a strong defensive team, but Fleury will start on Friday, and his .859 save percentage over his last three outings shouldn’t inspire confidence in bettors. Fleury has allowed two or fewer goals in five out of his nine starts, but only four teams have scored more goals than Utah over the past month. Dylan Guenther leads Utah in scoring this season, and he’s done the majority of it over the past 12 games. Guenther has scored seven of his 14 goals over the last 12 games and he’s tied for the team lead in shots on goal with Clayton Keller during that time. Initially, I wasn’t interested in this player prop, but Sports Interaction has incentivized me by offering far better odds (+250) than every other sportsbook.