NHL divisional futures betting odds: best, worst and sleeper picks for 2022-23
The NHL’s randomness makes it special. Case in point: in 2019-20, the Detroit Red Wings posted the worst points percentage of any NHL team in 20 years…yet beat the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Boston Bruins twice that season. Anything can happen on any given night.
So, is that randomness your friend or your enemy if you’re a sports bettor? It can be either, but it does allow you to hit on a long shot more often than you can in many other team sports. And the variance, of course, doesn’t just happen game to game. It also happens season to season. Four of 16 playoff spots turned over to new teams from 2020-21 to 2021-22.
With that in mind, it’s always intriguing to peruse the NHL futures odds for division winners. There’s money to be made thanks to the annual unpredictability.
What are the best, worst and sneakiest futures bets for each division? Using the current PointsBet odds, I make my choices below.
ATLANTIC DIVISION
SAFE BET: Toronto Maple Leafs +200
I don’t even know for sure that Toronto is the best team in its division, but this is the safest bet to me because of the relative roster continuity. From Auston Matthews to Mitch Marner to John Tavares to William Nylander to Morgan Rielly, the Leafs decided to run it back with their core once more after falling to the mighty Tampa Bay Lightning in a seven-game first-round war. Toronto’s goaltending is a question mark with the new duo of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov, but it was extremely volatile last season, too, and that didn’t stop the Leafs from setting franchise records for wins (54) and points (115). Only two NHL teams have more regular-season wins over the past five years.
FOOL’S GOLD: Florida Panthers +225
The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Panthers? Yes. The Panthers had enormous roster turnover this offseason. The noteworthy player joining the fray is of course Matthew Tkachuk, yet the Cats lost Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, Claude Giroux, and Mason Marchment, not to mention Anthony Duclair due to a long-term injury. I still expect them to contend for the Stanley Cup, but they got much worse on paper year over year and they also are more likely to rest stars down the stretch this time. They got their major regular season accolade last year. Now it’s the Cup that matters and they might be willing to trade a few wins for a deeper playoff run.
SLEEPER BET: Ottawa Senators +2500
I don’t actually love any sleeper in the Atlantic, but the Sens are the closest for me. After a stellar offseason for GM Pierre Dorion, they project to have a formidable top-six forward group of Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, Drake Batherson, Alex DeBrincat, Tim Stutzle and Giroux. They’ve improved their goaltending with Cam Talbot, too. I still think the D-corps is suspect, but prospect Jake Sanderson could change that if he sticks with the team. For me it’s Sanderson, not the flashy acquisitions, who gives Ottawa the most sleeper juice.
CENTRAL DIVISION
SAFE BET: Colorado Avalanche -175
Let’s not overthink this one. Whether they re-sign Nazem Kadri or not, the defending champions have the league’s most loaded roster. The scariest part is that some of their best players, such as Cale Makar and Bowen Byram, are still ascending.
FOOL’S GOLD: St. Louis Blues +700
I do like this team. The Blues have an extremely deep forward group. But they did lose power play maestro David Perron to free agency and it’s hard to imagine them getting such a perfectly healthy season from Vladimir Tarasenko again. They also did little to improve their defense corps despite being one of the NHL’s worst defensive teams last season, and they let go of a netminder who did a great job overcoming the lack of help: Ville Husso. They have to hope Jordan Binnington delivers a consistent season now that he’s the uncontested starting goalie again. Whatever happens, though, I see too many red flags to pick St. Louis to win the Central.
SLEEPER BET: Winnipeg Jets +2000
We can all agree the Jets underachieved last season, right? Multiple Daily Faceoff staffers had picked them to win the Cup. That was a testament to the talent on the roster: Connor Hellebuyck, Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey and so on. Coming off a playoff miss, they have the sixth-best odds to win the Central, but what if all they need is the right voice? New coach Rick Bowness has plenty of skill to work with here, at least as much as he had in Dallas. That makes Winnipeg an intriguing sleeper to me.
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
SAFE BET: New York Rangers +350
The Carolina Hurricanes are just as safe to me, but since the Rangers odds offer better value than the +190 for Carolina, that breaks the tie for me. The Blueshirts don’t always impress with their under-the-hood numbers, but Igor Shesterkin’s play in net offsets that. No team in the division has a greater collection of elite-tier talent, including Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and many more, and the Rangers’ prospect pool keeps feeding new, high-upside skill onto the roster as well.
FOOL’S GOLD: Washington Capitals +850
The Caps are the NHL’s oldest team, with an average age of 29.77 according to Elite Prospects’ current 2022-23 roster projections. Their goaltending should stabilize with Darcy Kuemper joining them, and they still have enough star power to make the playoffs thanks to the likes of Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and John Carlson. But this team is exiting its primary contention window and will start 2022-23 minus key top-six forwards Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom as they work their way back from injuries. They did add stopgaps in Dylan Strome and Connor Brown but look like a team that will fight for a lower seed as they did last season, not a division champion.
SLEEPER BET: New York Islanders +700
I go into more detail about the Islanders’ sleeper status for 2022-23 here. Short version: they’re a year removed from being a top contender, their schedule was bizarre and unlucky last season, and they likely have a roster upgrade coming before this season begins.
PACIFIC DIVISION
SAFE BET: Edmonton Oilers +210
It’s never a bad thing to say, “I’m betting on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.” They elevated Edmonton to a new level last season. The Oilers enter 2022-23 coming off a Western Conference final berth and boasting their deepest roster in years – with a goalie upgrade to boot in UFA signing Jack Campbell.
FOOL’S GOLD: Vegas Golden Knights +325
I don’t think there’s a division winner bet I like less than Vegas at +325. Gone from a team that missed the playoffs last season: first-line right winger Max Pacioretty, starting goaltender Robin Lehner (injured) and depth wingers Mattias Janmark and Evgenii Dadonov. Replaced by: pretty much no one of consequence thanks to the team’s salary-cap constraints. I know Bruce Cassidy is an excellent addition as head coach, but the Golden Knights’ roster got significantly worse this summer. The long-term health of captain Mark Stone’s back is a major concern, too.
SLEEPER BET: Vancouver Canucks +1000
They performed at a playoff level and then some once Bruce Boudreau took over as coach. They remind me of the Rangers in that they’re loaded with high-ceiling talent, from goalie Thatcher Demko to blueliner Quinn Hughes to center Elias Pettersson. Vancouver also made a few useful additions without removing many primary pieces from its lineup (yet. We’ll see what happens with J.T. Miller). If the Canucks can tighten up their defensive play, they could surprise. The Pacific looks once again like a wide-open battleground this season. If I’m choosing one division in which to try my sleeper pick, it’s this one.
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