Best NHL player prop bets (Dec. 16): Don’t hesitate to back McDavid in Stanley Cup rematch
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Monday night.
Logan Stankoven Over 2.5 Shots on Goal/Anytime Goalscorer: +105 and +320 Sports Interaction
Due to Tyler Seguin’s long-term hip injury, Stankoven has been elevated into a role on the Dallas Stars’ second line alongside Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene. The Stars’ second unit had been one of the league’s very best combinations this season while Seguin was healthy, with all three skaters at a point-per-game or better prior to Seguin’s injury.
I’ve been adamant that the Stars’ second line would continue to be highly effective with Stankoven taking over Seguin’s role. Stankoven is a highly intelligent player that plays far bigger than his stature, and he does a great job helping to keep plays alive in the offensive zone.
To some extent that take has been accurate, though the production hasn’t quite been where it was with Seguin just yet. In 63.3 minutes togethe,r Marchment, Duchene, and Stankoven have played to a 63% expected goal share and generated 3.81 xGF/60. Both of those marks are superior to the rates that Duchene/Marchment held with Seguin, and are the best rates of any Stars unit to play over 50 minutes together this season.
Stankoven leads the team with 10.98 shots on goal per 60 this season, and 17.96 shot attempts per 60. He skated 18:49 versus St. Louis on Saturday, and recorded five shots on goal from seven attempts. Obviously it’s far more difficult to finish chances at the NHL level, a point that Stankoven is driving home this season in shooting just 5.2%.
Final #STLvsDAL *QSC By Skater:#TexasHockey: (42)
7 – Hintz
7 – Stankoven
5 – Duchene
4 – Robertson
3 – Blackwell
3 – Dadonov
2 – Harley
2 – Heiskanen
3 – Marchment
2 – Steel
1 – Benn
1 – Bourque
1 – Lyubushkin
1 – Smith
Stankoven has never been viewed as a player that lacks finishing ability though. He netted 79 goals in his last 107 games in the WHL, and posted 24 goals in 47 games in the AHL last season. He scored six goals in 24 games in the NHL last season, shooting 11.2%.
Stankoven should continue to get plenty of looks playing alongside Marchment and Duchene, and will likely start to finish those chances off at higher clip moving forward. At +105, I see value backing him to record three shots in tonight’s matchup versus the Washington Capitals, and also like a smaller bet on him to score at +320.
Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points: -105 Sports Interaction
The Edmonton Oilers will have the opportunity to extract a small measure tonight as they host the Florida Panthers for a rematch of last year’s Stanley Cup Final. McDavid put up 11 points in seven games in that series, but was pointless in the final two games, which unfortunately is the prevailing memory regarding his play in that series for many hockey fans.
Maurice on tonight's loss: “I’m not concerned about our lack of offense. We’re not moving the puck well enough to generate, but that’s really not an important part of our game. Our rush defense is AWOL. If we do that against Edmonton, they’re going to put 15 on us.”
— Jameson Olive (@JamesonCoop) December 15, 2024Since November 9, the league’s best player leads the the NHL with 31 points in 16 games, and in those 16 games, McDavid has gone over 1.5 points 10 times. While this is certainly a tougher than average matchup, it’s also a game where McDavid is far more likely play big minutes than usual in order for the Oilers to get a winning result.
While Maurice likely would not ever point it out, part of the reason the Panthers are allowing more goals against of late has been shaky goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky, who holds a -4.9 GSAx rating this season and a disappointing save percentage of .892.
I’m expecting McDavid and the Oilers to make a statement in this game, and see value backing him to record two points or more at -105.
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