Best NHL player prop bets (Dec. 18): Target these two shots on goal props

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Wednesday night.

Owen Tippett Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: -139 Sports Interaction

The Philadelphia Flyers will visit Little Caesars Arena for an important matchup with the Detroit Red Wings on Wednesday evening. If the Flyers can garner two points, they would move back into a tie for the final Eastern Conference Wild Card berth.

The Red Wings also remain within striking distance of the final spot, but their underlying results suggest it is unlikely they will go on the kind of run needed to steal a playoff berth at this point. The Red Wings have allowed the fifth-most shots against per game this season, but have hung around in a number of contests thanks to solid goaltending and an elite power play.

Detroit’s shaky defensive play makes this a good opportunity to buy on Tippett from a shot volume perspective, despite the fact that he has not gone over 2.5 shots on goal in five straight games. Tippett ranked fourth in the NHL last season in generating 13.4 shots on goal per 60, and still ranks first on the Flyers with 9.37 shots per 60 this season.

Part of Tippett’s recent dip in shot volume comes from the fact that he is off the Flyers’ top power-play unit. Still, he is playing with two high-quality, pass-first players at even strength in Matvei Michkov and Morgan Frost. In 120.2 minutes together, that trio holds a 58.2% expected goal share, and is generating 58.01 shot attempts per 60.

Over the last 10 games, Tippett has averaged 5.5 shot attempts per game, and it appears he is due for increased volume moving forward. A price of -125 for Tippett to go over 2.5 shots on goal is drastically better than we have seen over the last two years, and this looks like a good time to buy low in a favorable matchup.

Kyle Connor Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: -110 Sports Interaction

This one is kind at the opposite end of the spectrum of the Tippett pick, as Connor has obviously been on fire of late, and this bet will likely be among the most popular props from tonight’s NHL slate as a result.

Perhaps it’s a little lame to select the same pick two days in a row, but everything about the Jets’ game last night suggests this number has not moved enough as Connor takes on the Anaheim Ducks.

Connor registered two goals from nine shots in last night’s matchup versus the Ducks. The Jets’ top line of Connor, Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi was entirely dominant, and the Jets’ top power-play unit looked excellent as well. The rest of the team wasn’t overly good, however, and the Sharks were able to keep the game close.

It seems like once again Connor, Scheifele and Vilardi will need to play a key role in tonight’s matchup in order for the Jets to garner a winning result, particularly as Eric Comrie is likely to start in goal. The fact that this game could be surprisingly close despite the Ducks’ horrid defensive play, should provide another quality game script. The Ducks have allowed 33.36 shots against per 60 this season, which is the highest rate in the league. We should the see Jets’ top trio generate plenty of chances in this matchup.

For what it’s worth, Connor has also dominated the Ducks historically with 12 goals in 17 career games. That’s not necessarily surprising, as throughout Connor’s prime in the league Anaheim’s developing core has consistently been awful defensively.

Backing Connor to score a goal at +110 is certainly a viable option, but thanks to Lukas Dostal’s brilliance in goal this season I personally see a little more value targeting him to record four or more shots on goal.

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