NHL power rankings: Leafs are getting healthier and staying red hot

Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly (44), goaltender Joseph Woll (60) and right wing William Nylander (88) celebrate after they beat the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena.

Credit: © Kim Klement Neitzel

We’re finally here: it’s the frequently mentioned portion of the season when U.S. Thanksgiving has come and gone, and now we can really start to draw some conclusions from how teams have played this season. That means that every take we make in these power rankings from here on out is 100% true and will continue to be true for the rest of the season. At least for me, I can’t speak on behalf of Mr. Crowther.

Hunter Crowther and I continue to navigate through the results so far this season with another week of our co-op power rankings. I have my same old system in which I aggregate six stats (points %, 5-on-5 goal differential, 5-on-5 xGF/60, 5-on-5 xGA/60, power play xGF/60, and shorthanded xGA/60, all coming courtesy of Natural Stat Trick) to come up with a list that eliminates my own biases, along with a rule that no team can be above a team that’s more than five points ahead of them in the standings, regardless of where the aggregate places them. On the other hand, Hunter goes off his own intellect and pure vibes, and together we find a way to combine it and meet in the middle.

1. Minnesota Wild

Record: 16-4-4, +19
Last Week: 4th (+3)
Hunter’s Rank: 2nd
Scott’s Rank: 4th

Hunter: What a week in the State of Hockey. Three wins, including a thrilling 3-2 overtime victory over the Predators on Saturday night, and going into Monday they find themselves in first in the league. Oh, and they just acquired David Jiricek from the Blue Jackets, the 2022 No. 6 overall pick, who rounds out an already talented blueline with Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin. Images of the “look at us” meme from Hot Ones pop into my head, because let’s be honest, who saw this coming? Maybe this should have been obvious. Kirill Kaprizov is in the Hart Trophy conversation, Faber will be a Norris Trophy candidate for years to come, and Filip Gustavsson is one of the best goaltenders in the game right now. If you haven’t seen them play yet, find the time this week. They’re a damn fun team to watch.

Scott: It’s going to be interesting to see what they can provide for Jiricek that the Blue Jackets couldn’t. They have a stronger defense core, especially on the right side, so he’s not just going to be handed a lineup spot. I guess he’s going to have to hope that John Hynes really likes him, because he can’t seem to get on the coaches’ good sides so far in his NHL career.

2. Washington Capitals

Record: 17-6-1, +32
Last Week: 7th (+5)
Hunter’s Rank: 5th
Scott’s Rank: 1st

Scott: Well, offense certainly doesn’t seem to be a problem for the Capitals, even without Alex Ovechkin. The Caps went 4-0-0 last week and scored a grand total of 20 goals in those games, with three of those games coming against excellent teams in the Panthers, Lightning and Devils. They had six players score at above a point-per-game in that span too, from the usual suspects in Dylan Strome, Tom Wilson and Connor McMichael to defensemen in Jakob Chychrun and John Carlson to the new addition in Lars Eller. They continue to rock the highest 5v5 shooting percentage in the league by almost 2%, so this certainly won’t last, but the fundamentals are still there and will still make this a tough Caps squad to beat.

Hunter: They’re not just winning games, but every contest feels like the most entertaining one on the schedule. They’re letting in a lot of goals and it may catch up to them, but no doubt it’s impressive that they’re winning without their captain.

3. Carolina Hurricanes

Record: 16-7-1, +21
Last Week: 1st (-2)
Hunter’s Rank: 1st
Scott’s Rank: 5th

Scott: The Canes had a gauntlet of a week with games against the Stars, Rangers, and twice the Panthers, so the fact that they came out of it with wins in two of the four is far from a disappointment. That said, finishing off that stretch with back-to-back losses to the Panthers will leave a sour taste in their mouth, especially since they were outscored 12-6. Pyotr Kochetkov can’t come back soon enough.

4. New Jersey Devils

Record: 16-9-2, +19
Last Week: 3rd (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 4th
Scott’s Rank: 3rd

Hunter: Bit of a strange week in New Jersey, with plenty of goals scored but some inconsistent play in their own end and a 2-2-0 record. Jacob Markstrom is letting a not-insignificant amount of pucks get past him, allowing nine goals on 70 shots this week for a save percentage of .871%. Three games is a small sample size, but it’s part of a larger problem, with the Devils allowing their opponent to score the first goal of the game in seven straight contests, three of which have come on the first shot of the game.

5. Los Angeles Kings

Record: 14-8-3, +8
Last Week: 9th (+4)
Hunter’s Rank: 8th
Scott’s Rank: 2nd

Scott: The 7-2 loss to the Sharks is a very ugly blemish on the Kings’ recent stretch of play, but they’ve otherwise been excellent recently with wins in four of their last five. They’ve quietly done an excellent job of hanging around in the upper echelon in the league with excellent two-way play, and once their top offensive players outside of Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe start to produce again, this could be a threatening team this year.

Hunter: They’re a treat to watch if you can stay up, or if you’re lucky enough to live in a superior sports time zone like Pacific or Mountain Time. Kevin Fiala is coming along after a difficult stretch in November, and it’s nice to see Phillip Danault getting in on the scoresheet. It’s funny, David Rittich’s numbers don’t exactly jump out at you, but look beyond a seven-goal outing against the Sharks and he’s been terrific.

Scott: People talk about the Mountain and Pacific Time Zone as the superior time zones for sports watching, but that claim goes right out the window the second you want to watch European soccer or Formula 1, where the average start time is between 4-5 am and 7-8 a.m. Heck, the “evening” soccer games are at 9 a.m. PST. No thanks.

6. Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 14-7-2, +10
Last Week: 5th (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 3rd
Scott’s Rank: 9th

Hunter: Auston Matthews finally made his return Saturday night against the Lightning, but beyond the 5-1 drubbing against the Panthers earlier in the week, Toronto has played fantastically. Joseph Woll seems to really be getting comfortable in his crease, and the blueline has played some of the most calm, thought-out defensive play I’ve seen from the Maple Leafs since … Good Lord, I can’t remember when. Tomas Kaberle? Maybe before then? Also, I’m curious to see if finally scoring opens up the valves for Nick Robertson going forward. With all the injuries, you’d think he’d solidify a spot by now.

Scott: I really hope so, Robertson at his best is a player the Leafs could use come playoff time, but his play has been so inconsistent it feels like we’re going to see another solid Leafs draft pick fade away with a whimper before being dealt like Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren.

7. Winnipeg Jets

Record: 18-7-0, +31
Last Week: 2nd (-5)
Hunter’s Rank: 6th
Scott’s Rank: 8th

Scott: Welcome to the Winnipeg Jets Official Haters Club, Mr. Crowther, we’ve been expecting you for some time now. The upside to the start that they had is that they can get away with a tough stretch and still find themselves in contention for the best record in the league, but with six losses in their last nine games, the Jets have already been caught in points and surpassed in points percentage by the Wild.

Hunter: I refuse entry into the club, simply because rightly saying they’ve played themselves out of the very top doesn’t mean I need to write “Hater” on my LinkedIn. I liked their game for a chunk of Sunday’s match against the Stars, but the Stars looked like the much better team in the second half. They play four non-playoff teams next week, let’s see if they can make up some points.

8. Florida Panthers

Record: 15-9-1, +12
Last Week: 11th (+3)
Hunter’s Rank: 7th
Scott’s Rank: 7th

Scott: After what was easily the Panthers’ worst stretch of the season with losses in four straight games, they bounced back last week with three straight wins over the Leafs and the Canes (twice), and they weren’t close ones either. With a combined score of 17-4 in those games, it’s safe to say that the Cats are back to normal.

Hunter: There was a sequence during the Leafs game where they just hemmed the Leafs in their own end and controlled play for what felt like half the period, and it reminded me of Florida manhandling the Lightning and Bruins in the playoffs last spring. When they’re playing their game, they aren’t just dominant, they’re inevitable.

9. Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 15-7-3, +12
Last Week: 8th (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 10th
Scott’s Rank: 6th

Hunter: Through the week, I had some notes on how great Vegas has looked lately, how Jack Eichel should be getting more attention and how they’re starting to be that scary opponent they’ve been the last few seasons … then they got thumped 6-0 by Utah HC. They’re still good, but maybe we can pump the brakes. Also, Noah Hanifin has looked objectively bad, with the Knights giving up chances when he’s on the ice and him losing battles in his own end, highlighted by his 44 percent even-strength Corsi and 43.74 percent expected goals.

10. Dallas Stars

Record: 15-8-0, +20
Last Week: 6th (-4)
Hunter’s Rank: 9th
Scott’s Rank: 10th

Scott: The arc that is my stance on the Stars has been an interesting one so far this year. They started off the season red hot but were playing poorly so I was low on them, and now after a brief slump, they’re playing much better but are far enough behind the top teams in the league that the five-point rule keeps them lower than they should be (they actually ranked seventh on my list before implementing that rule). With their top line of Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston finally starting to play like many expected them to, they’ll probably catch up to the best teams sooner rather than later.

11. Edmonton Oilers

Record: 13-9-2, -1
Last Week: 13th (+2)
Hunter’s Rank: 11th
Scott’s Rank: 12th

Hunter: With a week between games, the Oilers looked rusty to start Friday’s game against Utah, down 2-0 after one and having no legs under them. But they managed to come back and win in overtime, then played a strong second and third period against the Avalanche the following night. It’s nice to see Ryan Nugent-Hopkins find some offense recently, as he scored only one goal through his first 19 games but now has three in his last five. The Oilers desperately need him and many others to find another gear in December.

12. Tampa Bay Lightning

Record: 12-9-2, +13
Last Week: 12th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 12th
Scott’s Rank: 11th

Hunter: We’re not sure how long the Lightning will be without Nikita Kucherov, who missed Saturday’s game against the Leafs with an “undisclosed injury” (by the way, the NHL should be required to fully disclose every injury with fans like the NFL because gambling and fantasy sports have become so indoctrinated into the league, but that’s a whole different conversation). Victor Hedman just passed Head Coach Martin St. Louis for the most assists in Lightning history, and this season, like every other season, Hedman has been a delight to watch.

13. Colorado Avalanche

Record: 13-12-0, -12
Last Week: 10th (-3)
Hunter’s Rank: 14th
Scott’s Rank: 15th

Hunter: I have a lot of faith in a team that has two Hart Trophy-caliber players in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, but I don’t have enough to put them in that folder of “Stanley Cup contender” teams. The depth beyond those two and Mikko Rantanen feels thin, and despite racking up plenty of ice time, Casey Mittelstadt has a goal and two assists in his last 12 games. You need more from your second-line center if you want to make a run in springtime.

Scott: I agree with the first part, but not because of their lack of depth, but because they still desperately need a goaltender. They made an attempt to solve that by swapping Justus Annunen for Scott Wedgewood, but that just feels like shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.

14. Boston Bruins

Record: 12-11-3, -16
Last Week: 17th (+3)
Hunter’s Rank: 17th
Scott’s Rank: 13th

Scott: The good news for the Bruins is that they’ve seen their underlying numbers improve a bit since firing Jim Montgommery and letting Joe Sacco take the reins behind the bench, and the team has won four of their first six games with the new head coach. The bad news is that it still hasn’t magically fixed their scoring issues, as they’re still generating just 2.24 5v5 goals per 60 minutes. They still need to make a couple of roster changes if they want any chance of being a serious threat in the playoffs this season.

15. New York Rangers

Record: 13-9-1, +10
Last Week: 14th (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 15th
Scott’s Rank: 16th

Hunter: Hello, Chris Drury? It’s me, Hunter Crowther. Good, and you? Glad to hear. Listen, I’m not sure if you know this, but earlier in the season, I was advocating pretty hard for how good of a team you are, how I expected you to pick up where you left off last season and go on another deep playoff run. But you recently went through a five-game losing streak and nearly lost to a terrible Canadiens squad on Saturday, and now reports indicate you sent a memo to the league that captain Jacob Trouba and Chris Kreider are available via trade? Look, it’s a new month, and you’re playing the rival Devils on Monday. Can you focus on staying in the win column? That’d be greeeaaaaaat.

Scott: Well, going off of this recent trend I noticed that the Rangers have beaten a team in the top-15 only twice this season (which, with just one win last against the Habs, continues to hold strong), they at least have two games against teams outside of that group next week for a chance to get some wins. And a game against the Devils on Monday, but we’ve seen how that’s gone this year.

16. Columbus Blue Jackets

Record: 11-9-3, +3
Last Week: 20th (+4)
Hunter’s Rank: 18th
Scott’s Rank: 14th

Scott: The Blue Jackets just might be legit. They’re starting to string some wins together, and it’s far from a fluke either, as they’re generating chances at a top-five rate while sitting in the middle of the pack in terms of chance prevention. Obviously the Jiricek trade is the bigger story in Columbus right now, but the league’s biggest feel-good story carries on another week!

Hunter: The Blue Jackets’ winning ways are most definitely the biggest story in Columbus this week!

17. Vancouver Canucks

Record: 13-7-3, +2
Last Week: 16th (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 13th
Scott’s Rank: 20th

Scott: Nothing sums up the current state of the Canucks better than the fact that it felt like they’ve been playing some uninspiring hockey recently, and yet they have wins in three of their last four games. They did lose the expected goals battle in two of the three wins, so that’s probably why I feel that way, but at the very least, they’re still hanging around while J.T. Miller and Thatcher Demko are still out of the lineup. Vancouver can thank the play of Quinn Hughes for that, as he has nine points in his last four games.

18. New York Islanders

Record: 9-10-6, -9
Last Week: 19th (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 19th
Scott’s Rank: 17th

Hunter: A lot of the forwards on this team are underperforming, including Bo Horvat, but what should we be expecting from a group without Mathew Barzal and Anthony Duclair? Veterans in their mid-30s like Kyle Palmieri and Brock Nelson shouldn’t have to be relied on this much. Hell, even Semyon Varlamov struggled this week. If it weren’t for Ilya Sorokin, we would have a much different tone when talking about the Islanders.

19. Calgary Flames

Record: 12-9-4, -8
Last Week: 15th (-4)
Hunter’s Rank: 16th
Scott’s Rank: 22nd

Scott: The Flames are still holding on to a playoff spot in what has already become a tough Pacific Division, but losing four straight games is one way to make it harder to stick around in that battle. If the four-game losing streak wasn’t bad enough, it didn’t exactly come against tough competition either, with their best opponent in this stretch being the Blue Jackets.

Hunter: I’m waiting for the stretch of games where they look terrible and we can comfortably say that they’re now sellers, and this most recent skid may be the fuse that lights that tinder box. Also, if the All-Star Game was today, who would be the Flames’ representative and why would it be Dustin Wolf?

20. Buffalo Sabres

Record: 11-11-2, -1
Last Week: 18th (-2)
Hunter’s Rank: 20th
Scott’s Rank: 19th

Hunter: Remember that sequence at the end of Challengers where the two male leads have that fantastic rally with one another, the ball going back and forth with an intensity that’s almost impossible for sports movies to capture? That’s what it feels like watching the Sabres each week. One week they’re stringing together wins and you think they figured it out, the next they’re starting James Reimer for some reason and losing to an underperforming Islanders squad. This team has too much talent to be this inconsistent.

Scott: The second I saw you reference Challengers, I was expecting this thought to go in a much different direction.

21. Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 10-12-4, -28
Last Week: 23rd (+2)
Hunter’s Rank: 21st
Scott’s Rank: 18th

Hunter: I’ve been fairly critical of this club — and rightly so, because they’re a bad hockey team — but they looked really good this week. I watched their win over Vancouver from a Mexican resort and the older couple from Fox Chapel, Pa., who watched with us at the lobby bar couldn’t have been happier. Not that Sidney Crosby needs any more credit, but to be 37 on a team like this and still have this much joy on his face when he hugs the teammate whose goal he assisted on, it gives you hope for how much fun he’ll have playing for Canada in February.

Scott: I also thought the move to bring in Philip Tomasino was a solid one. Everyone compares the Caps and the Pens, but a big reason why both teams are where they are right now is because the Caps did an on-the-fly retool and targeted young players to add to the club, while the Pens continued to get older. With the Eller trade earlier this month and the Tomasino acquisition last week, the Pens are finally starting to go in that direction. And Tomasino has rewarded them with two goals in three games so far.

22. Utah Hockey Club

Record: 10-10-4, -4
Last Week: 25th (+3)
Hunter’s Rank: 22nd
Scott’s Rank: 21st

Hunter: Credit where credit is due, a 6-0 win over a talented Golden Knights squad is impressive. Throw in a valiant effort in an overtime loss to the Oilers and a win over the Canadiens, and Utah made some tidy work for themselves this past week. Logan Cooley is finding a hot hand with three goals and five assists during his five-game point streak, and should continue building off a 20-goal, 44-point rookie campaign in Arizona last season.

23. Philadelphia Flyers

Record: 12-10-3, -10
Last Week: 27th (+4)
Hunter’s Rank: 23rd
Scott’s Rank: 25th

Hunter: It’s funny, the Flyers looked so terrible in October that I thought this whole season would be a wash and we could figure out whom they might draft with a lottery pick in June. But with a pair of three-game winning streaks in November, including Calder Trophy-caliber play from Matvei Michkov and a seemingly rejuvenated Sean Couturier, Philadelphia is becoming a fun team to watch. And look: Matt Larkin has added Travis Konecny to his projected 4 Nations Face-Off roster for Canada! Clearly it was our week-by-week lobbying that made him see how good he was. The system works.

Scott: Your week-by-week lobbying! Not that I have anything against Konecny being on Team Canada, but I like Brandon Hagel just a tad bit more out of those types of players for Canada, and I feel like only one of them probably makes the team.

24. Anaheim Ducks

Record: 10-10-3, -7
Last Week: 24th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 25th
Scott’s Rank: 24th

Scott: The young guns in Anaheim are starting to pick up their play, and it’s showing in the team’s recent results as well. Cutter Gauthier is finally producing, their getting some points from their trio of young defensemen in Olen Zellweger, Pavel Mintyukov and Jackson LaCombe, and Trevor Zegras is finally showing shades of the flashy player that took the league by storm in his rookie season. They could still get more out of Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish, but this is still much better than what we’d seen from the Ducks to start the year.

25. Ottawa Senators

Record: 10-12-2, -5
Last Week: 22nd (-3)
Hunter’s Rank: 26th
Scott’s Rank: 23rd

Hunter: Just like the Sabres, the Senators have left me wanting more whenever I watch them. Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, and Jake Sanderson are very talented young players who should be pushing Ottawa beyond the bottom of the barrel. Does that mean they have to move on from someone like Josh Norris or one of the others? It doesn’t help that offseason acquisition Linus Ullmark allowed three or more goals in nearly every game in November.

26. Detroit Red Wings

Record: 10-11-3, -13
Last Week: 26th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 24th
Scott’s Rank: 27th

Scott: So what exactly is the next move for this Red Wings team going forward? I think the easiest decision comes with a change behind the bench, but it feels like they need to do way more than that to turn around this team. I mean, how bad does it need to get before Steve Yzerman’s seat gets warm? It really is an awkward position for Detroit to be in because firing one of your franchise greats feels like an easy way to skewer his reputation.

Hunter: Yzerman’s seat should be a lot warmer. J.T. Compher was a bad contract, bringing Patrick Kane back was a mistake, and you have a bottom-tier offense, averaging just 2.63 goals per game. Somehow, bringing in a 37-year-old Cam Talbot was one of the better offseason moves he made. Just fire Derek Lalonde and bring in one of Jay Woodcroft or Todd McLellan, or they can bite their knuckles and bring on Joel Quenneville and the s–t storm that will come with it. You may have your personal feelings about Quenneville and his inaction after learning one of his players was allegedly sexually assaulted, but now that he’s been reinstated into the league, eventually one of these team executives is going to be desperate enough to hold onto their own job to bring him behind their bench in an effort to win.

27. Nashville Predators

Record: 7-12-6, -21
Last Week: 21st (-6)
Hunter’s Rank: 27th
Scott’s Rank: 26th

Hunter: At this point, what can you even do? I think Andrew Brunette is a great coach and firing him now would be unfair, considering the players are simply not performing up to the standard they’re capable of playing at. But with a 7-12-6 record, 30th in the league standings and reaching a point where you’re playing yourself out of playoff contention, ownership might not leave general manager Barry Troz with another option. With a four-game Canadian road trip starting this week, this might be the time the Predators pull the plug on Brunette.

28. St. Louis Blues

Record: 11-12-2, -16
Last Week: 30th (+2)
Hunter’s Rank: 26th
Scott’s Rank: 29th

Scott: Three games into the Jim Montgomery (head coach) era in St. Louis, and the Blues have been a respectable 2-0-1, with the two wins coming against quality opponents in the Rangers and Devils. That said, the play under the hood is still on par with the Blues teams of the past few years, so I’m not exactly ready to say this team has been reborn from the ashes just yet.

Hunter: How the heck is Jake Neighbours leading the teams in goals? At least Dylan Holloway is making the most of his opportunity, he’s on pace for a 40-point season. Not bad for a guy who just hit the 100-game career mark this season.

29. Chicago Blackhawks

Record: 8-14-2, -13
Last Week: 28th (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 29th
Scott’s Rank: 30th

Hunter: The Blackhawks are losing games, but it feels like they’re not getting blown out or embarrassed. Even Sunday’s 6-3 loss to the Blue Jackets had flashes of a good club that let it get away from them in the third period. Connor Bedard’s scoreless streak is behind him and he’s looking more confident with each game, and Taylor Hall has looked great on nearly every shift since being healthy scratched two weeks ago. If he continues playing well, expect him to fetch a big return for Chicago as we get closer to the deadline, though he’d rather re-sign.

30. Montreal Canadiens

Record: 8-13-3, -25
Last Week: 31st (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 32nd
Scott’s Rank: 28th

Scott: With losses in four of their last five games, the Habs have continued to follow the trajectory of the teams of the past couple of seasons: a respectable start, followed by a slump in November/December, and then finding themselves at the bottom of the league for the rest of the season. Sam Montembeault’s excellent play at the start of the year was a big reason for their early “respectable” success, so the fact that he’s struggled a lot more recently has given Montreal very little to hide behind.

Hunter: Did we bite off more than we could chew with all this talk about Montembeault making Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster? Did the hot start blind us from the fact he’s barely a .900 SV% goalie?

Scott: I think Montembeault is still one of Canada’s best options. That says a lot more about Canada’s depth than Montembeault’s play, but he’s developed a strong track record over the past few seasons and would probably be even better behind a defense that actually has structure.

31. San Jose Sharks

Record: 9-13-5, -18
Last Week: 32nd (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 30th
Scott’s Rank: 31st

Scott: The Sharks are fun again! It shouldn’t surprise anyone that the insertion of young talent like Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith has made this team so watchable, but now they’re actually putting some points on the board with wins in three of their last four, including a seven-spot on the Kings and eight goals against the Kraken. That said, it’s probably not going to last too much longer, as the month of December sees them play 10 of their 13 games against teams that are ranked in our top 20. They’re about to play a lot of tough competition and will either sink or swim.

32. Seattle Kraken

Record: 11-13-1, -5
Last Week: 29th (-3)
Hunter’s Rank: 31st
Scott’s Rank: 32nd

Scott: The Kraken just finished a recent schedule that feels straight out of the 2020-21 season, with five straight games against California teams and a home-and-home with the Ducks and Sharks. They only won one of those games, which is a big reason why they’ve slipped more into the territory of the Ducks and Sharks in the West instead of the playoff bubble. It’s too bad Joey Daccord won’t himself on Team Canada for the 4 Nations Face-Off (no Canadian passport despite dual citizenship), because his play this season deserves to be recognized behind a team that can actually win him some games.

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