Top Betting Takeaways From The NHL’s First Week
The first week of NHL action is in the books, and it didn’t take long for teams to shake up early expectations. From surprising underdogs to dominant performances by top contenders, bettors already have plenty of insights to consider moving forward.
Whether you’re tracking teams that exceeded projections or reassessing preseason favourites, this week provided valuable lessons for anyone looking to capitalize on future wagers.
Here’s a look at the top takeaways from a betting perspective after the opening week of NHL hockey:
San Jose Still Struggling
Macklin Celebrini wasted no time making an impact, with a goal and an assist in the first period of his NHL debut. However, the Sharks blew a 3-0 lead and lost in overtime. Celebrini didn’t play in Saturday’s 2-0 loss to Anaheim and won’t suit up for their next three road games due to injury. San Jose is expected to lose most nights, and without their most talented player, their chances against teams like Dallas and Winnipeg look slim. I’d even say they’ll be sizable underdogs when facing Chicago later this week.
Edmonton Will Find a Way
Don’t panic, Edmonton. The Oilers will likely figure things out. Like last season, signs of a turnaround are there. According to Natural Stat Trick, Edmonton ranks among the top teams in shot attempts and high-danger chances at five-on-five—they’ve just had no shooting luck. However, their defense and goaltending are concerning. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard have allowed around nine goals above expected, per Evolving Hockey, with only one goaltender performing worse.
Colorado’s Goaltending Gamble Not Paying Off
Alexandar Georgiev had a strong debut season with Colorado, ranking sixth in goals saved above expected. But last season, he ranked last, and through three games this year, he’s in the same spot. “Fourgiev,” as fans have dubbed him, was pulled in his first two starts, allowing five goals on 16 shots against Vegas and three on nine shots against Columbus. Though he played a full game versus the Islanders, he gave up five goals in a 6-2 loss. Colorado’s top-end talent can only carry them so far if their goaltending continues to falter.
Dallas Looks Complete
It’s early, but the Dallas Stars are 3-0 and looking strong. After an opening win against Nashville, they posted back-to-back shutouts over the Islanders and Kraken. Dallas is now favoured to win the Presidents’ Trophy and Stanley Cup. They face San Jose and Washington next, so they could be 5-0 by the time they meet the Oilers on Saturday.
Despite controlling just 42% of shot attempts and 35% of expected goals at five-on-five, score effects have played a role since Dallas has led most of the time. Last season, they were third-best in expected goals and ranked in the top 10 on both the power play and penalty kill, making them one of the most balanced teams in the NHL.
Injuries Open a Path for the Maple Leafs
While it was fun to see Toronto shut out 1-0 by Montreal in the opener, an objective fan has to admit they were the better team. They’ve since picked up two wins and sit tied for the Atlantic Division lead with Ottawa. However, injuries have opened the door for the Maple Leafs to pull ahead.
Florida is without its two top stars, Matthew Tkachuk (out about a week) and Aleksander Barkov (out 2-3 weeks). Meanwhile, Senators goalie Linus Ullmark missed Monday’s wild 8-7 OT win over the Kings due to an injury.
My forecast gives the Maple Leafs a 31% chance of winning the Atlantic, while Ottawa sits at just 4%. I’m not convinced the Senators have the staying power to contend for the division, even if they look like a playoff team early on.
2024-25 NHL Projected Standings, Playoff Chances, and Stanley Cup Odds
It’s early, but the NHL landscape is already shifting thanks to surprising underdogs and underwhelming performances by contenders. However, the league’s top teams and bottom-dwellers remain mostly unchanged. Here are the projected standings, playoff odds, and Stanley Cup chances as of Tuesday, Oct. 15:
| Team | Points | Most Points | Worst Record | Division | Playoffs | Stanley Cup |
| DAL | 109 | 23% | 0% | 56% | 98% | 10% |
| NYR | 108 | 18% | 0% | 44% | 96% | 9% |
| NJD | 106 | 12% | 0% | 34% | 94% | 8% |
| EDM | 105 | 11% | 0% | 51% | 95% | 9% |
| CAR | 102 | 6% | 0% | 19% | 87% | 6% |
| TOR | 102 | 5% | 0% | 31% | 86% | 6% |
| WPG | 101 | 5% | 0% | 16% | 84% | 5% |
| COL | 100 | 3% | 0% | 13% | 82% | 5% |
| FLA | 100 | 3% | 0% | 25% | 81% | 6% |
| VGK | 100 | 3% | 0% | 21% | 82% | 5% |
| BOS | 99 | 3% | 0% | 22% | 78% | 5% |
| NSH | 99 | 3% | 0% | 11% | 78% | 5% |
| VAN | 99 | 2% | 0% | 18% | 79% | 4% |
| TBL | 97 | 1% | 0% | 15% | 69% | 3% |
| LAK | 95 | 1% | 0% | 9% | 65% | 3% |
| MIN | 92 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 47% | 1% |
| OTT | 91 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 40% | 1% |
| NYI | 91 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 38% | 1% |
| PIT | 90 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 33% | 1% |
| DET | 88 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 27% | 1% |
| PHI | 88 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 26% | 1% |
| UTA | 88 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 26% | 1% |
| STL | 88 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 25% | 1% |
| BUF | 87 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 22% | 1% |
| WSH | 86 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 19% | 0% |
| SEA | 86 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 21% | 0% |
| CGY | 85 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 16% | 0% |
| MTL | 79 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| CHI | 76 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| ANA | 71 | 0% | 20% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| CBJ | 70 | 0% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| SJS | 66 | 0% | 42% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Today’s Best NHL Moneyline Bet
Tuesday is packed with nine games, featuring five winless teams. My favourite bet? The St. Louis Blues.
St. Louis Blues Moneyline (+100)
Minnesota looked overrated heading into the season, and while it’s early, I’m sticking with that take. The Wild are 1-2, with their only win coming against Columbus, who’s projected to finish last in the East. While they’ve controlled five-on-five goals, their underlying metrics are unimpressive. Meanwhile, the Blues—one of the most profitable teams to bet on last season—are off to a decent start with Jordan Binnington in net. Both Gustavsson and Binnington have been confirmed as the starting goaltenders for Tuesday’s game.
The Blues won all three meetings with Minnesota last season and are 7-4 against them since 2021-22. Plus, Wild captain Jared Spurgeon and Joel Eriksson Ek are out Tuesday with injuries.