No stud goaltender? No Stanley Cup

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Can a Stanley Cup winner be distilled into a repeatable recipe?

It’s a question I ask every year after the NHL Trade Deadline passes as we reassess the league’s power structure based on which players changed teams. Is there a set list of ingredients a contending team can seek out and sprinkle into one pot every season to ensure a deep playoff run?

Last season, I laid out what I believed was a usable championship recipe by studying the previous 10 Stanley Cup winners. The recipe consisted of seven characteristics that were most common among the champions. It wasn’t as simple as just being good at everything. For instance, there wasn’t a strong correlation at all between having a good power play and winning the Cup, but there was a strong correlation between having a good penalty kill and winning the Cup.

Using the same parameters, which NHL roster has just the right mix of championship material this season?

Today, we continue the recipe series by examining the correlation between having an elite goaltender and winning the Cup.

Stanley Cup Ingredient #3: Top-10 Goaltender

“The hot goalie who takes his team on a miraculous run.” That’s one of the oldest, most romantic playoff hockey narratives out there. Countless times, we’ve seen a middling puck-stopper find a groove when it mattered most. Bill Ranford won the 1989-90 Conn Smythe Trophy during a season in which he didn’t receive a single Vezina Trophy vote. Braden Holtby started the 2017-18 playoffs warming the bench before taking over the Washington Capitals’ net after two games and helping them win their first championship. 

But this Stanley Cup resume exercise is focused on identifying the factors you can control going into the post-season. You can’t predict an unexpected run of greatness. But you can build a team going into the playoffs that includes a goaltender you know is elite. How strong is the correlation between having a top-10 puck stopper across a full regular-season sample size and winning the Cup?

Looking at the past 10 champions, we’ll define a “top-10 goalie” as someone who appeared in at least half his team’s regular season games and had a top-10 save percentage in the NHL among goalies meeting that game requirement. We’ll make an exception for Jordan Binnington, who joined the Blues partway through 2018-19 but was unquestionably a workhorse No. 1 netminder for the balance of the season.

Season	Champion	Top-10 Goaltender?
2012-13	Chicago	Yes (Crawford, .926)
2013-14	Los Angeles	No
2014-15	Chicago	Yes (Crawford, .924)
2015-16	Pittsburgh	Yes (Fleury, .921*)
2016-17	Pittsburgh	Yes (Murray, .923)
2017-18	Washington	No
2018-19	St. Louis	Yes (Binnington, .927*)
2019-20	Tampa Bay	Yes (Vasilevskiy, .917)
2020-21	Tampa Bay	Yes (Vasilevskiy, .925)
2021-22	Colorado	Yes (Kuemper, .921)

So eight of the past 10 winners had a reliable stud goaltender who played more than half their regular-season games and ranked top-10 in save percentage. Marc-Andre Fleury was injured to start the 2016 playoffs and ceded the crease to Matt Murray, but that’s offset by the 2013-14 Kings qualifying as a “No” when they had a Conn Smythe Trophy winner between the pipes in Jonathan Quick. Bottom line: it matters to have a certified horse in net.

And before we toss a Captain Obvious label on that statement: it’s a worthy point to make given how many supposed top tier contenders roll into the playoffs having not ticked that crucial box every year. The Toronto Maple Leafs, for instance, bombed out in Round 1 of the 2021 and 2022 playoffs and one reason why was that Jack Campbell was outduelled by future Hall of Famers Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Stanley Cup correlation: Very Strong

So if we filter this season by goaltenders who have played at least half their teams’ games to date and sit top-10 in SV%, what does the leaderboard look like?

2022-23 leaders, save percentage (Min. half team’s games played)

1. Linus Ullmark, BOS, .938
2. Ilya Sorokin, NYI, .926
3. Jake Oettinger, DAL, .920
4. Connor Hellebuyck, WPG, .919
5. Alexandar Georgiev, COL, .918
6. Juuse Saros, NSH, .917
7. Ilya Samsonov, TOR, .915
8. Logan Thompson, VGK, .914
9. Andre Vasilevskiy, TB ,.914
10. Darcy Kuemper, WSH, .913

Eight of the top 10 toil for teams currently occupying playoff positions, albeit the rookie Thompson remains injured and has competition for work whenever he returns in Adin Hill and newly acquired Quick. Saros and Kuemper are poised to deliver strong efforts on non-playoff teams, while Sorokin’s incredible season reminds us of how dangerous the New York Islanders might be if they can squeak into the playoffs.

Which noteworthy contenders fail to chart a top-10 netminder? The Edmonton Oilers stand out. Questions will abound whether Campbell or Stuart Skinner can answer the bell for a team with designs on going deep. Meanwhile, the Carolina Hurricanes have a goalie who has played at a top-10 level in Pyotr Kochetkov, but he’s blocked on and off by the injury-prone veterans Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta. Will we see the Canes use three goalies for the second straight postseason?

One contender that hadn’t placed anyone in the elite goalie tier but moved to address the problem at the Trade Deadline: the Los Angeles Kings. New acquisition Joonas Korpisalo hasn’t started enough games to qualify but does have a solid .913 SV% on the year, including a .929 mark in this first two appearances as a King.

Proof that the study isn’t perfect: Igor Shesterkin, having somewhat of a down year following his epic Vezina Trophy season in 2021-22, doesn’t meet the criteria, but the Rangers would hardly qualify as weak in net.

Previous Stanley Cup Ingredients entries: Team Weight, Top-10 Scorer(s)

Next up: Shot Attempt Share