Does success in one-goal games predict a team’s playoff success?
There’s nothing quite like a close game in hockey. Whether it’s watching two teams go back and forth throughout the game, seeing one team attempt to tie it late in the third of a one-goal game, or if it features a thrilling overtime goal, hockey is at its best when both teams are neck-and-neck for the win.
It’s one of the many reasons players or teams who always seem to play better in those tight, close moments are always perceived as so important. Sometimes, it’s because they have the experience or “clutch” factor that allows them to thrive in those moments. But in a game like hockey, where good and bad bounces play such a significant role in the outcomes of games, sometimes players and teams are better in those close moments just simply because those lucky bounces come at the perfect times.
Every season, a few teams do much better in close game situations than the rest of the league, and you hear the same narratives. They know how to win, they’ll be better prepared for the playoffs, stuff like that. But does winning more in close games actually result in better playoff success?
To start, let’s take a look at some of the teams from the three seasons prior to this one that had a .600 win percentage in their one-goal games that season and see what came of their success.
I decided to sort the data based on the difference between each team’s win% in one-goal games vs. their overall win% because I figured it would be important to show the difference between teams that could only win a lot in one-goal games and teams that were winning a lot regardless of the score.
I’m also only looking at the last three seasons because they actually had full 82-game sample sizes, with 2019-20 and 2020-21 cut short due to COVID-19. If luck is involved in close games, then sometimes a shortened season allows a team’s luck to carry into the playoffs, so the data wouldn’t be as accurate.
Teams with a .600 win% in one-goal games, 2021-2024
| Team | One-goal game win% | Overall win% | Difference | Season Result |
| 21-22 Stars | 0.700 | 0.561 | 0.139 | Out in 1st Round |
| 23-24 Blues | 0.654 | 0.524 | 0.13 | No Playoffs |
| 23-24 Capitals | 0.606 | 0.488 | 0.118 | Out in 1st Round |
| 21-22 Bruins | 0.727 | 0.622 | 0.105 | Out in 1st Round |
| 22-23 Predators | 0.600 | 0.512 | 0.88 | No Playoffs |
| 23-24 Rangers | 0.742 | 0.671 | 0.071 | Out in 3rd Round |
| 22-23 Jets | 0.630 | 0.561 | 0.069 | Out in 1st Round |
| 23-24 Golden Knights | 0.607 | 0.549 | 0.058 | Out in 1st Round |
| 23-24 Predators | 0.621 | 0.573 | 0.048 | Out in 1st Round |
| 21-22 Oilers | 0.630 | 0.598 | 0.032 | Out in 3rd Round |
| 21-22 Wild | 0.667 | 0.646 | 0.021 | Out in 1st Round |
| 23-24 Oilers | 0.609 | 0.598 | 0.011 | Out in Cup Final |
| 21-22 Maple Leafs | 0.667 | 0.659 | 0.008 | Out in 1st Round |
| 22-23 Hurricanes | 0.625 | 0.634 | -0.009 | Out in 3rd Round |
| 21-22 Panthers | 0.688 | 0.707 | -0.019 | Out in 2nd Round |
| 21-22 Rangers | 0.611 | 0.634 | -0.023 | Out in 3rd Round |
| 21-22 Avalanche | 0.643 | 0.683 | -0.04 | Won Stanley Cup |
| 22-23 Bruins | 0.676 | 0.793 | -0.117 | Out in 1st Round |
Already there are quite a few takeaways from what we see here. For starters, there are a lot more teams that were one-and-done in the playoffs (or didn’t even make the playoffs in the first place) than there are teams that found some level of success in the postseason. Of the 18 teams that had a .600 win% or higher in the regular season, 11 of them either missed the playoffs or lost in the first round.
That’s the case even more when you look at the teams that won a lot of one-goal games but didn’t see that success translate to games of all score states. Eight teams saw a one-goal game win% that was 0.05 (or 5%) higher than their overall win%, and only the 2023-24 New York Rangers saw their team win more than one playoff round.
What that tells us already is that teams who do better in one-goal games than other score states tend to be more lucky than clutch, as most of those teams saw their luck run out by the time the playoffs came about. And in the case of the Rangers, their regression appears to have come the following season, as they went from a Presidents’ Trophy-winning team in 2023-24 to a team fighting for their playoff lives with a bit more than three weeks left in the 2024-25 season.
To add to that, winning a lot in one-goal games doesn’t always mean you’re due for a deep playoff run. While this list does feature 50% of the teams that made it to the Conference Finals from 2021-22 to 2023-24, it only features two of the six teams that made the Stanley Cup Final: the 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche (the only team on the list that won the Cup) and the 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers. And again, those two teams were winning one-goal games as much as any other game, and in the Avalanche’s case, it was actually less often.
So then let’s look at all of the Conference finalists from the 2022 to 2024 playoffs, and see how their win% in one-goal games compared to their overall win%.
| Team | One-goal game win% | Overall win% | Difference |
| 23-24 Rangers | 0.742 | 0.671 | 0.071 |
| 21-22 Oilers | 0.630 | 0.598 | 0.032 |
| 23-24 Oilers | 0.609 | 0.598 | 0.011 |
| 22-23 Panthers | 0.519 | 0.512 | 0.007 |
| 22-23 Hurricanes | 0.625 | 0.634 | -0.009 |
| 21-22 Rangers | 0.611 | 0.634 | -0.023 |
| 22-23 Golden Knights | 0.595 | 0.622 | -0.027 |
| 21-22 Avalanche | 0.643 | 0.683 | -0.04 |
| 23-24 Panthers | 0.594 | 0.634 | -0.04 |
| 21-22 Lightning | 0.571 | 0.622 | -0.051 |
| 23-24 Stars | 0.575 | 0.634 | -0.059 |
| 22-23 Stars | 0.394 | 0.573 | -0.179 |
Once again, we see that teams can’t just do well in one-goal games to be successful in the playoffs, they have to be successful at winning all types of games. In fact, all three Cup winners on this list had a higher overall win% than they did a one-goal game win%, and two-thirds of the list had similar results.
So ultimately, winning in one-goal games isn’t necessarily predictive of playoff success, nor does it prepare a team for winning close games in the playoffs. The teams that do well in the playoffs do win those types of games more often than not (except for the 2022-23 Dallas Stars), but they also just win regardless. Meanwhile, the teams that rely on those close games to win more are usually just lucky, and that luck usually runs out come playoff time.
However, let’s not just be reflective with this argument. Let’s take a look at this year’s teams in playoff contention and follow along with the trends that we’ve noticed.
| Teams | One-goal game win% | Overall win% | Difference |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 0.708 | 0.606 | 0.102 |
| Ottawa Senators | 0.621 | 0.529 | 0.092 |
| Florida Panthers | 0.682 | 0.606 | 0.076 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 0.682 | 0.611 | 0.071 |
| Calgary Flames | 0.552 | 0.486 | 0.066 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 0.536 | 0.471 | 0.065 |
| Minnesota Wild | 0.600 | 0.556 | 0.044 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 0.500 | 0.465 | 0.035 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 0.500 | 0.465 | 0.035 |
| St. Louis Blues | 0.548 | 0.521 | 0.027 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 0.680 | 0.681 | -0.001 |
| New York Islanders | 0.452 | 0.457 | -0.005 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 0.600 | 0.606 | -0.006 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 0.576 | 0,586 | -0.01 |
| New York Rangers | 0.448 | 0.472 | -0.024 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 0.538 | 0.571 | -0.033 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 0.423 | 0.457 | -0.034 |
| Dallas Stars | 0.593 | 0.643 | -0.05 |
| New Jersey Devils | 0.400 | 0.514 | -0.114 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 0.435 | 0.577 | -0.142 |
| Washington Capitals | 0.519 | 0.662 | -0.143 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 0.423 | 0.606 | -0.183 |
First off, six teams have a difference between one-goal game win% and overall win% greater than 0.05, which was the threshold of teams that normally found themselves eliminated in the first round. The Toronto Maple Leafs are the biggest culprit, with the Ottawa Senators not far behind, and the Florida Panthers and Montreal Canadiens make it a total of four Atlantic Division teams in this group. In addition to that, they’re joined by the Calgary Flames and Colorado Avalanche out West.
And if we wanted to go off the trend that teams that win the Stanley Cup find themselves with a better overall win% than one-goal game win%, we have plenty of candidates to look at. For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out the ones that are looked at more favorably as strong playoff contenders, those being the Winnipeg Jets (barely), Carolina Hurricanes, Los Angeles Kings, Tampa Bay Lightning, Washington Capitals, Vegas Golden Knights, Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars, and if you wanted to go off of preseason expectations, the New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers.
Is there anything to truly take away from this data in terms of predictability for the playoffs? Only to an extent. There are some noticeable trends, but they aren’t certainties either. Just because a team finds themselves at one end of the argument or the other, it doesn’t mean its playoff fate is set in stone.
If there is one thing to take away from all of this, it’s that there’s pretty much no correlation between winning close games in the regular season and winning in the playoffs, so the narrative that it leads to playoff success is quite false. There’s a bit more of a correlation if those teams are also winning other types of games at a similarly successful rate, but if a team is much more successful in one-goal games than other game states, it has just as much to do with luck as it does skill.
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