Projecting Sam Bennett’s contract: Which number should we actually believe?

Jun 9, 2025, 10:23 EDT

Credit: Mar 28, 2025; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Florida Panthers center Sam Bennett (9) looks on after scoring against the Utah Hockey Club during the second period at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

It seems like every breath Sam Bennett takes earns him another dollar right now.

The Florida Panthers center, 28, is competing in his third consecutive Stanley Cup Final, this time doing so as a pending unrestricted free agent, making teams salivate with his play. He leads the postseason with 13 goals in 19 games, including nine goals at even strength. He’s doled out 91 hits across those 19 games. The Panthers get 57.25 percent of all 5-on-5 scoring chances with him on the ice this postseason. He’s also created controversies galore with his net-crashing antics. Whether you believe he’s perfected accidentally-on-purpose running goaltenders or expertly plays on the right side of the line, the haters and lovers alike can agree he’s incredibly effective.

Bennett represents the eye of a perfect storm this coming offseason, in which a rising salary cap and thin center market will drive up the price on his next contract. It’s led to wildly variant speculation and predictions as to what AAV he’ll score on his next deal.

“I’m anxious to see myself,” an NHL team executive told Daily Faceoff, seemingly stumped as to what the final number will be.

At the top of the range, some prognostications claim Bennett will land an AAV as high as $10 million. As another NHL team executive told my colleague Anthony Di Marco last week, “That’s the word out there.”

But not everyone believes the number. It’s possible the $10 million has been floated by Bennett’s camp and agent Darren Ferris as classic posturing method.

“There is no question it’s being leaked out there by Mr. Ferris,” said an NHL player agent.

On one hand, Bennett is a warrior who averages 30 goals and 342 hits per 82 games in the postseason for his career, and the demand could jack his price up July 1. On the other, he’s never topped 28 goals or 51 points in the regular season, his rugged style constantly nicks him up and prevents him from playing full seasons, and he’s not a great bet to age gracefully given the wear on his tires. That’s probably why AFP Analytics, an outlet that tends to be remarkably accurate in its projections, landed on a much more modest 6 x $6.4 million.

Given everything we know and the conflicting opinions out there, what should we actually expect on Bennett’s next contract? Let’s dive deeper in hopes of generating an accurate prediction.

PERFORMANCE

Let’s say we give Bennett the benefit of the doubt and wipe his Calgary Flames slate off the record, acknowledging that he underachieved as the No. 4 overall pick from the 2014 Draft but unlocked his true potential in Florida, as so many other post-hype first-rounders have after GM Bill Zito brought them in. And let’s say we focus on what Bennett is right now and use his past three seasons as the sample to study. Among 29 forwards to play for the Panthers in the past five years, he’s top-five in on-ice expected goal share at 5-on-5. He grades out as much more of an offensive ice-tilter than a defensive stalwart, but he’s proficient at what he does. Among 429 NHL forwards who have played at least 1,000 minutes at 5-on-5 across the past three seasons, Bennett grades out in the 92^nd percentile in shots on goal per 60; 94^th percentile in individual expected goals per 60; 96^th percentile in individual scoring chances per 60; and 94^th percentile in individual high-danger chances per 60. He’s a one-man hornet’s nest buzzing the other team’s net in perpetuity. He’s always going to get in penalty trouble, and that’s just something you have to accept with him.

And in the playoffs, his game translates just as well if not better. He’s top 12 among all NHL forwards in 5-on-5 individual expected goals per 60 over the past three postseasons. He throws an above-average 9.08 hits per 60 at 5-on-5 in the regular season but delivers a whopping 16.95 hits per 60 in the playoffs over the past three years, bested by only four other forwards. Bennett truly does meet the hype as a wrecking ball from April to June.

If you base any projected contract on his overall regular-season performance, it’ll look like an overpay, as Bennett’s next 30-goal season will be his first, and a career shooting percentage of 10.4 reminds us he’s not a true finisher. But it’s undeniable he saves his best work for the playoffs and levels up his play like few other players in this generation do. He’s not going to drive the bus that helps you make the playoffs, but he’ll take the wheel once you’re there.

AGE & INJURY HISTORY

Bennett turns 29 on June 20, which would be the day of Game 7 if the Panthers and Edmonton Oilers go that far in this already-fantastic Stanley Cup Final. Plenty of NHL players continue producing great seasons in their 30s, but Bennett’s player archetype doesn’t always age well. The likes of David Backes and Wayne Simmonds come to mind as recent examples of power forwards whose physical play caught up to them all of a sudden. In 2016, Backes signed a five-year, $30 million contract with the Boston Bruins at 32 but, it turned out, was already done as a high-impact player, never topping 17 goals again. Simmonds was pretty much finished as a difference maker by the time he wrapped his age-29 season in 2018.

Those examples are anecdotal, of course, and we watched Tom Wilson defy the aging curve this season, but the point is simply that Bennett’s playing style makes him a risky long-term bet. In his first four NHL seasons, a.k.a his age 19, 20, 21 and 22 campaigns, he played 311 of a possible 328 games, good for 94.8 percent. Since then, he’s played 379 of a possible 454 games, or 83.4 percent, fighting through a variety of maladies, from shoulder to groin problems and more. It’s safe to say his percentage of games played won’t increase as he reaches his 30s and continues hurling his 6-foot-1, 193-pound frame at anything with a pulse.

THE RISING SALARY CAP

The projected $7.5 million increase this summer, from $88 to $95.5 million, is the largest of the cap era, and it’s only the beginning, as the cap projects to hit $104 million by 2026-2027 and $113.5 million by 2027-28. So not only will teams have much more spending room this summer, but they can hand out fat long-term deals knowing the ceiling lifts way higher over next year and the year after that.

“It will be bananas,” said an agent. “It will be beyond anything anyone has ever seen before. There are teams that are desperate to improve that will finally after four years of being choked have money to spend, and they’re going to fucking spend it.”

So if Bennett lands at the top of his projected range, it won’t take such a big bite out of the cap. It feels like any team prying Bennett out of Florida will have to flirt with overpaying. If the Panthers retain him, the agent suggested, they won’t have the cap space to pay him an astronomical AAV, but they can get around that (a) by front-loading a deal that keeps the AAV down put pays him upwards of $10 million in real money at the beginning and (b) relying on Florida’s trusty lack of state income tax to help him still reach his market value at an AAV below it.

THE MARKET

Here’s where things get very interesting. Even the biggest “$10 million Sam Bennett” skeptic must admit the UFA market is incredibly thin at center. Brock Nelson just re-signed with the Colorado Avalanche. John Tavares is coming off a 38-goal season but seems determined to say home and find a team-friendly deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs. That leaves Matt Duchene, who is five years Bennett’s senior and has a terrible playoff track record, as the other top option, while the versatile Mikael Granlund, who can play all three forward positions, made himself some money this postseason with the Dallas Stars, no doubt. But Bennett is clearly the most coveted option – let’s circle back to the fact he leads the playoffs in goals – and the extreme demand alone gives him a ton of leverage.

It could come in the form of a medium-term deal with a massive AAV, sure, or a max-term deal giving him extreme security and setting him for life.

CONCLUSION

There’s no denying Bennett’s in a position of power right now. He’s having a monster playoffs, his blend of skill and snarl is extremely hard to find, and there’s a lack of supply plus an extreme demand at his position. With the cap going up so much, too, there are simply too many factors working in his favor for the bottom range of his contract projection, 6 x $6.4 million, to make sense.

The $10 million projection feels just too ludicrous for an injury-prone second-liner whose best years may soon be behind him, but it’s possible the market gets out of control and someone hands him $9 million. The belief here based on everything is that he’ll get a nice term to keep the AAV reasonable:

My projection: six years at an $8.5 million cap hit.

Advanced stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

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