Rental or Trade and Sign? The potential trade paths of Vancouver Canucks’ Bo Horvat

Credit: © Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports

Think you know sports? PointsBet Canada is live in Ontario!

____

With less than two months remaining until the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline, we’re bringing you one deadline-focused story each day at Daily Faceoff.

Today we’re going to focus on an individual player profile of Vancouver Canucks captain Bo Horvat, the No. 1 player available on our latest Trade Targets board.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 54 Days

BO HORVAT
Center, Vancouver Canucks
Age: 27
Shoots: Left
Height: 6’0″ | Weight: 215 lbs.
Cap Hit: $5.5 million AAV
Term: Pending UFA
Trade Clauses: No restrictions
Stats: 39 GP, 29 goals, 15 assists, 44 points, 20:48 avg TOI
Career: Ninth season (all with Vancouver), 611 GP, 199 goals, 211 assists, 410 points

Archetype and Ideal Role

Net-Front Scorer, 2nd Line Center

Horvat was the 11th-ranked Net-Front Scorer in Daily Faceoff‘s Archetype Rankings series before the season started. Ideally, Horvat slides into a team’s No. 2 center slot and their top power play unit in the bumper role where he has been lethal over the past three years. Horvat has scored 30 power play goals in that span, 13th most in the NHL, outpacing players like Brayden Point, John Tavares and Patrice Bergeron.

Scouting Report

Horvat is an intelligent player who is well-rounded. One of his best attributes is offensive situational awareness. He is not a play driver who will have the puck on his stick for extended periods, or someone who is naturally deceptive and will make plays through traffic. But he plays off his more creative linemates and uses his strength and knack for being in the right spot at the right time to finish in-tight and impact the scoresheet.

Over the last three seasons, Horvat has rung up 78 goals, good for 13th in the NHL, tied with Matthew Tkachuk and well ahead of Steven Stamkos, Sidney Crosby, Brayden Point and William Nylander. Horvat is a force in the bumper spot on the power play, where he uses his thicker frame to win space. This year, he’s already closing in on his career highs in both goals and power play goals.

The big question every acquiring front office is attempting to answer with Horvat: Is this all-world season is repeatable?

The common refrain from most league sources is no, not exactly. Yes, everyone recognizes the changes in Horvat’s game with the help of individual skills coach Adam Oates. But we have eight seasons of data in the bank with Horvat to indicate this season is a statistical outlier – at least at even-strength. His 61-goal pace and more than 90 points would be career highs by wide margins. The goal total would almost double his career high of 31.

On the power play, it would seem Horvat’s production is very repeatable. His power play shooting percentage over these last three seasons is relatively flat at 23 percent.

With 18 goals at even-strength and just over half the season remaining to play, Horvat is on pace for nearly 40 even-strength goals. That part of his game has seen a significant boost via shooting percentage. His career shooting percentage over his first 570 career games was approximately 10 percent. This year, it has more than doubled to 23.5 percent.

A regression to the mean is not only more than likely, but expected. None of this suggests that Horvat is not a very productive player, but indicates that his future production should look more in line with his previous seasons, which is in the 30 goals and 30 assists for 60 points territory.

Buyer Beware: No player is perfect, and Horvat certainly has his flaws. His first three steps and his inability to break away from defenders is a concern. That limits his ability to create space and ultimately facilitate offense for others. His lack of separation pace also hinders him as an effective transporter of the puck out of the defensive zone and into the neutral zone. Instead, he tends to shield the puck, make smart five to 10-foot plays, then trail the rush to find the right spot to arrive once the attack is already in motion.

Horvat is recognized as a complete center, but he does lack natural defensive awareness. That does not come from lack of effort or want to stop the opposition, but rather he struggles to process where pressure is coming from to appropriately support in the defensive zone. He has the tendency to get puck-focused and loses lane and assignment discipline.

That said, Horvat does battle for loose pucks, blocks shots when required, and is effective defensively when the correct read is made and he arrives on-time. But opposition quick-strike plays through seams and assignment breakdowns have cost the Canucks often.

He makes up for some of those issues with the fact that he is winning draws at a 56 percent clip over the last three seasons, which equates to a valuable matchup asset for any coach. Horvat is third-best in the league over the last three years in offensive zone faceoff win (61.3) percentage and 43rd in the league in defensive zone faceoff win (51.6) percentage.

Potential Fits

The line for Horvat will be long.

Boston Bruins: The Bruins are lapping the league and have some serious Last Dance vibes this year. David Krejci has been great after his short hiatus in his native Czechia. But Krejci and Patrice Bergeron are both on the brink of retirement. Horvat is the perfect short and long-term option to boost Boston. He could help entice David Pastrnak to re-sign. The only problem is the Bruins are light on assets.
Carolina Hurricanes: 2C is the one position the Canes lack. Jesperi Kotkaniemi hasn’t panned out and Jordan Staal is better suited as a 3C in a shutdown role on a contending team. That leaves the Canes to play Paul Stastny and Derek Stepan as high as the second line. Enter Horvat. It isn’t the Canes’ style to go all-in, or pay a 28-year-old free agent market rate on a long-term deal. Maybe they break their mold to make a push this year with Horvat as a pure rental and flip his rights for draft picks before July 1? Horvat makes too much sense in Raleighwood.
Colorado Avalanche: You can’t count out Colorado as the banged-up defending champs are still searching for Nazem Kadri’s replacement. Horvat would inject instant offense and make their power play even more lethal, the perfect Kadri successor in the bumper spot. The issue is the cost, not necessarily in terms of assets, but cap space for this season and beyond. They’d need to move on from Samuel Girard, which would give the Avs room to re-sign Horvat if they acquired him. It would be prudent for the Avs to at least explore the cost.
Minnesota Wild: The Wild would love to have a top-flight center who could make magic with Kirill Kaprizov. The tricky part is Minnesota is tight to the cap for the next few seasons as a result of the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts. Every move must be viewed through that prism. If they shuffled some parts around, Minnesota could make it work, and they have a stable of young prospects and roster players that might get Vancouver excited.
Washington Capitals: Nicklas Backstrom is back for the Caps, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be after a mostly unprecedented hip resurfacing surgery. Either way, the Caps lack youth coming and could use an infusion of known talent to not only assist the Great Eight in his pursuit of the Great One, but also make Washington a legitimate threat in the Metro for the next several years. The Caps’ asset pool is light in terms of prospects required, but they have the cap space and future cap flexibility to be a player if interested.
Non-Contending Teams: Where it gets really interesting with Horvat is whether any non-playoff teams decide to throw their hat into the ring. They know this might be their only chance at acquiring the player because there’s a real chance he’ll never make it to the free agent market. Would Columbus make sense as they lack centers? What about Detroit if they’re not keeping Dylan Larkin?

Sizing up the Market

Other Centers Available: Ryan O’Reilly (St. Louis), Jonathan Toews (Chicago), Jack Roslovic (Columbus).

Potentially Available Centers: Dylan Larkin (Detroit).

Pending Free Agents This Summer: O’Reilly, Larkin, Sean Monahan (Montreal), J.T. Compher (Colorado), Jordan Staal (Carolina).

Comparable Trade Returns

Working through the comps, it depends how Horvat will be viewed – as a rental or as a player signed immediately?

Rental Market

March 19, 2021
To Florida: Claude Giroux, German Rubtsov, Connor Bunnaman, 2024 5th Round Pick
To Philadelphia: 2024 1st Round Pick, 2023 3rd Round Pick, Owen Tippett

Feb. 22, 2019
To Columbus: Matt Duchene, Julius Bergman
To Ottawa: 2019 1st Round Pick (Lassi Thomson), Vitali Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson

There have not been many massive returns for rentals over the last number of years. When viewed in light of the trade restrictions that Claude Giroux put on the Flyers – only allowing them to engage in trade discussions with the Panthers – the return actually looks pretty good for Philadelphia compared to Ottawa a few years earlier without any similar restrictions.

Interestingly, when Duchene was traded, he was also putting up goals at a career-high clip in Ottawa. Giroux was not having a career-year in Philadelphia. Of the two comps, the Giroux trade’s return is probably more in line with what Vancouver could expect if Horvat is dealt without a contract in line.

Trade and Sign

Feb. 25, 2019
To Vegas: Mark Stone, Tobias Lindberg
To Ottawa: Erik Brannstrom, 2020 2nd Round Pick (Egor Sokolov), Oscar Lindberg

Feb. 24, 2020
To NY Islanders: J.G. Pageau
To Ottawa: 2020 1st Round Pick (Ridly Greig), 2020 2nd Round Pick (Roni Hirvonen)

The Mark Stone deal to Vegas was quickly followed by an eight-year, $76 million extension that paid Stone an average of $9.5 million per year. Vegas parted ways with Brannstrom, who many believed at the time to be the best prospect playing outside of the NHL. Pageau was signed to a six-year, $30 million extension the same day as the trade to the Island. Clearly, Horvat is closer in value to Stone than Pageau, but as Vancouver is reportedly interested in taking young players or prospects back, Brannstrom struggling to pan out may be a reminder that the picks are more valuable. In addition, don’t underestimate Horvat’s ability to sway a trade destination as a de facto ‘no-trade’ clause if a team is only interested if they can sign him long-term.

Projecting Horvat’s Next Contract

Consensus from conversations around the NHL: 8 years x $8.25 million for a total of $66 million.

There have been rumblings of late that at least one team is willing to pay Horvat an AAV that begins with $9 million if he makes it to market. It only takes one team. And he’d have to make it there first.

Summary

There is zero question Horvat would give any contending team an offensive boost as a durable, hard-to-contain center who is clutch in the faceoff dot. The Canucks have plenty of options today. The smart bet is they will take one more run at trying to re-sign him. But if Dylan Larkin somehow surfaces as a realistic possibility to move, Horvat’s market could take a hit. No one knows the advantage of moving first better than Canucks president Jim Rutherford. It would surprise no one if the Canucks took care of business before the market could dictate anything to them.

_____