Seravalli: Sizing up NHL’s goalie market ahead of 2022 trade deadline

Sometimes, it’s fair to wonder if the sport should simply be renamed “goalie,” because if you don’t have one, you can’t win.

The position is a rollercoaster. Success is hard to find and harder to sustain. Season-to-season performance is erratic. There are maybe seven or eight truly “elite” goaltenders league-wide that can be relied upon without question to carry a team.

At any given point, nearly one-third of the league is looking for goaltending. More than half the NHL makes a change in net every summer and takes a spin in the game of goaltending musical chairs at the starter or backup position. Organizational depth at the position has never been more important.

Here’s a deep dive on what the NHL’s goaltending market looks like ahead of the March 21 Trade Deadline:

Teams in the Hunt

Toronto Maple Leafs
Level of Concern: High
Scoop: Jack Campbell is battling. Petr Mrazek has been given every opportunity to seize the crease and hasn’t taken hold. The fact is: Since Jan. 1, the Maple Leafs have allowed four or more goals in 14 of their last 26 games, including each of their last four outings. It hasn’t felt that rough because they’re 16-8-2 in those 26 games. Their high-octane offense has been able to paper over most of their mistakes. Will GM Kyle Dubas be willing to bet this roster on the goaltending rounding into form in time for the Stanley Cup playoffs? It’d be a gamble, given Toronto’s playoff scoring woes, and because you can’t survive a four-round slog giving up four goals a night.

Edmonton Oilers
Level of Concern: High
Scoop: This is not breaking news. Edmonton’s goaltending has floundered for months. Oilers GM Ken Holland has turned over just about every rock in search for help – but has run into two main issues: There aren’t many true difference-makers available and/or the acquisition cost is a high for a netminder who is a bit of a gamble as an upgrade. Edmonton ranks 24th in save percentage with sub-.900 goaltending. Now, any trade may be too little, too late. The Oilers are a 50-50 shot to make the playoffs and have a lot of work to do to get in.

Seattle Kraken
Level of Concern: High
Scoop: Undoubtedly, this is an offseason move, but Seattle’s spectacularly bad goaltending should be noted. The Kraken rank 32nd (they have a banner retiring that number) in save percentage at .875. It’s not just the worst goaltending of the salary-cap era. You’d have to go back 26 years, all the way to the 1995-96 San Jose Sharks (.869), to find a team that’s gone a full season with a worse save percentage. Many years, the league worst hovers around .893. The difference between .875 and this year’s league average of .903 is 62 additional goals that Kraken will have allowed compared to the average.

Vegas Golden Knights
Level of Concern: Medium
Scoop: I’m not a doctor, and I don’t play one on TV. But I can tell you that Robin Lehner indisputably has a torn labrum in his shoulder. It requires surgery at some point – as indicated in our original report. He’s admirably playing through it. Will it hold up through the duress of a playoff run? What if it doesn’t? The Golden Knights have perused the goaltending market. We know they’ve asked about Marc-Andre Fleury and Alexandar Georgiev. How big a level of concern is it for GM Kelly McCrimmon? Vegas has assembled an incredible (and incredibly expensive) roster when everyone is healthy. It’d be a shame to see Lehner’s injury flare up after the trade deadline, leaving Laurent Brossoit to shoulder their Cup-or-bust load.

Washington Capitals
Level of Concern: Medium
Scoop: GM Brian MacLellan has not pulled any punches. The Capitals, as a whole, have not been good enough since U.S. Thanksgiving and their goaltending is included in that equation as well. He admitted he is on the prowl for a veteran goaltender who could provide a steadying influence. The Caps have gotten just above (.905) league average goaltending (.903). They put on the full court press for Marc-Andre Fleury, but it doesn’t sound like that is a team he’d like to chase a Cup with. What other veterans out there are available? A reunion with 2018 Stanley Cup winner Braden Holtby would be pretty awesome.

Minnesota Wild
Level of Concern: Medium
Scoop: Long before their play had faltered of late, the Wild were kicking tires on the goalie market in the early season. Cam Talbot then went on a run and Kaapo Kahkonen got his game together. Since Jan. 1, Talbot is just 6-5-0 with an .894 save percentage. Kahkonen has been better (.915) but his last three games were ugly. There has been a lot of talk about the Wild making a splash this year, trying to gear up before the dead cap money from Ryan Suter and Zach Parise kicks in this summer. GM Bill Guerin said he isn’t going to react emotionally, but there’s no question Minnesota is at a crossroads.

Colorado Avalanche
Level of Concern: Low
Scoop: If this one feels out of place, well, it does to us, too. The Colorado Avalanche are running away with the West. They have an outside shot at being one of the best regular season teams in NHL history. And Darcy Kuemper and Pavel Francouz have been stout in net. It would be weird, though, if Colorado’s playoff bubble catastrophe didn’t at least stick in the back of GM Joe Sakic’s mind. Philipp Grubauer and Francouz both went down, leaving their Stanley Cup hopes to rest on Michael Hutchinson. When healthy, there are no issues. But Kuemper and Francouz have already both been out of the lineup at the same time together this season.

Pittsburgh Penguins
Level of Concern: Low
Scoop: Tristan Jarry is one of the great stories of the season, a Comeback Player of the Year candidate without question. The All-Star netminder has consistently been great from puck drop this season. Like in Colorado, Jarry’s playoff struggles last year have to be a consideration. What happens if he gets to the playoffs and suddenly forgets how to make a stop again? It’s no secret the Pens are less than enthused about turning to Casey DeSmith in that spot if it were to happen. The only problem is that the Penguins don’t have any cap space, they don’t appear to be willing to trade future assets and they don’t have many other trade chips left.

New Jersey Devils
Level of Concern: Low
Scoop: Full marks to Nico Daws, the 21-year-old who has stepped into the blue paint and battled hard for the Devils. He’s being asked to do way too much, though, and the Devils know that. In the short-term, at least while Mackenzie Blackwood is still out, New Jersey is looking for an Andrew Hammond-type bailout just to steady things so the team can remain competitive. (Michael Hutchinson? Calvin Pickard? J-F Berube?) In the long-term, though, their goaltending picture is wide open. They aren’t sure if Blackwood can return to form, and the position has been a sore spot for two straight seasons now.

Arizona Coyotes
Level of Concern: Low
Scoop: Extension talks continue with Karel Vejmelka, but the Coyotes certainly aren’t alone in searching for a goaltender for next season. Unlike the Buffalo Sabres, who have Devon Levi, the Coyotes don’t have one for the future, either. They might try to trade for one at this deadline. They’ve asked for a netminder in a couple packages for Jakob Chychrun (Spencer Knight in Florida, but were rebuffed, and Jeremy Swayman in Boston). We’ll see if GM Bill Armstrong can land one prior to March 21.

Trade Targets 🎯

Marc-Andre Fleury
Chicago Blackhawks
Acquisition Cost: High
Scoop: Fleury has set himself apart as the premier goaltender available. He is the only guaranteed difference maker that could be on the move ahead of the trade deadline, which is why the acquisition cost is high. The Blackhawks are thinking first-round pick is appropriate. The complicating factor is ‘Flower’ holds all the cards. He has not only a 10-team “no-trade” list, but a reported handshake agreement with the Blackhawks that they’ll send him to a desired location. There is no question Fleury wants to win and chase a Cup.

Alexandar Georgiev
New York Rangers
Acquisition Cost: Medium
Scoop: The Rangers have been making calls in an attempt to move Georgiev, provided GM Chris Drury can find another veteran that he’d be comfortable with as an insurance policy on Hart Trophy candidate Igor Shesterkin. There is almost no path to Georgiev being a Ranger next season. Georgiev was a staple on the Trade Target board last summer after placing what we’d call a ‘soft’ trade request with the Rangers. He let the team be known he was open to a change of scenery, ready for a starter’s workload elsewhere. He’s not wrong: Over five NHL seasons, Georgiev has a career save percentage of .909. The Rangers asked for a first-round pick last summer, but Alex Nedeljkovic going for a third to Detroit threw a wrench into that.

Mackenzie Blackwood
New Jersey Devils
Acquisition Cost: Medium
Scoop: Two years ago, Blackwood appeared to be on a trajectory similar to that of Igor Shesterkin, his Rangers counterpart across the Hudson River. Blackwood could have carried the torch for Martin Brodeur in an organization that’s been blessed in net. Now, there are significant question marks about Blackwood’s game and his long-term future in New Jersey as the Devils explore all their options. Blackwood is a couple weeks away from working his way back to the lineup after a left heel injury. He may be ready to go before the trade deadline. The Devils are in the process of asking themselves: When healthy, what are the odds Blackwood’s game rebounds to the level we saw a couple years ago? As with Georgiev, there hasn’t been a strong trade market for younger goaltenders, even though Blackwood was a No. 1 for a season-plus.

Joonas Korpisalo
Columbus Blue Jackets
Acquisition Cost: Medium
Scoop: It’s difficult to envision the Blue Jackets allowing Korpisalo’s contract to expire without at least getting something for him in a season in which they’re not going to make the playoffs. Because it’s the Elvis Merzlikins Show in Columbus, now and for the foreseeable future. Merzlikins has carried the Blue Jackets and next year begins a fresh five-year, $27-million deal. Plus, the Blue Jackets have Daniil Tarasov ready to step in as Merzlikins’ backup next year. Korpisalo has not put in a formal trade request, but GM Jarmo Kekalainen is aware that Korpisalo would be open to an opportunity to play elsewhere. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a non-playoff team step up to get him prior to the deadline to get ahead of the market.

Braden Holtby
Dallas Stars
Acquisition Cost: Medium
Scoop: Fresh off a spell in which Jake Oettinger stopped 181 of 189 shots faced (.958 save percentage) over six games, there is no question as to who the present and future is in the Dallas crease. The Stars could trade Holtby, call up Anton Khudobin from AHL Texas and barely impact their playoff chances – even for a team that wants to give itself every opportunity to get in. With a number of teams searching for goaltending support, Holtby has won a Stanley Cup and found his form again this season in Dallas.

Anton Forsberg
Ottawa Senators
Acquisition Cost: Medium
Scoop: A number of teams are interested in Forsberg’s services as a relatively inexpensive deadline option in net. Forsberg has quietly put together an excellent season. He has a winning record (12-10-2) on the 26th-place team with a .921 save percentage, well above league average. Murray’s re-emergence since returning from AHL Belleville, sporting a .918 mark since Jan. 13, should provide enough confidence that the two-time Cup winner and 23-year-old Filip Gustavsson can get the job done in tandem next season.

Jaroslav Halak
Vancouver Canucks
Acquisition Cost: Low
Scoop: The Canucks have been actively attempting to trade Halak, who has a full “no-move” clause and can veto any transaction. However, if the 36-year-old is looking to continue his career, he’ll likely have to do so outside of Vancouver and it’d be beneficial to rebound from a shaky few outings that have caused his numbers to crater. Halak has veteran savvy and strong playoff numbers when called upon. He is due a $1.25 million bonus for appearing in 10 games, which occurred on Feb. 28. The belief is because of the way that contract is worded, the Canucks could negotiate with an acquiring team in a transaction to take on the full bonus, which would be hugely beneficial for Vancouver to not apply to next season’s cap as an overage.

Charlie Lindgren
St. Louis Blues
Acquisition Cost: Low
Scoop: There hasn’t been much talk about Lindgren, but he might be the best No. 3 available prior to the deadline. Sources say the Blues, who are in Cup contender mode, aren’t willing to move Ville Husso. They are perfectly prepared to let him walk for nothing in free agency this summer. With Husso and Jordan Binnington locking up the position, would the Blues entertain an offer on Lindgren? In five games this season, Lindgren is 5-0-0 with a sparkling .958 save percentage. If all hell were to break loose, with injuries to Husso and Binnington, the Blues could still turn to top goalie prospect Joel Hofer, who also saw NHL action this season.