Seven trade destinations to consider for Toronto Maple Leafs’ Mitch Marner

Toronto Maple Leafs right winger Mitch Marner

Credit: Nov 10, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitchell Marner (16) with a jersey patch to commemorate the annual Hockey Hall of Fame game against the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Has it really come to this?

After eight NHL seasons, Mitch Marner is fifth on the Toronto Maple Leafs’ all-time assists list. He’s eighth in points. He’s fifth in points per game. He owns two of the top 10 scoring seasons in franchise history. He’s never missed the playoffs.

And yet, something has to change. Someone has to go. It doesn’t matter that the Leafs, since Marner and Auston Matthews debuted in 2016-17, have the third-best record in the NHL at 356-188-74. The fan base simply doesn’t care anymore. The team has won a single playoff series over that stretch while going 0-6 in winner-take-all games.

With Matthews and William Nylander embarking on their new contract extensions and John Tavares likely to remain a Leaf during the final season of his deal at an $11 million cap hit, that leaves Marner and defenseman Morgan Rielly as the two core members on which GM Brad Treliving must make decisions. Marner, a two-time first-team all-star who ranks seventh in NHL scoring over the past five seasons and is three years younger than Rielly, is the player who will fetch the bigger return.

Marner has a full no-movement clause, but that doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to remain a Leaf. He’s No. 1 on my colleague Frank Seravalli’s Trade Targets board for a reason. It was reported this week by The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun that Marner’s camp prefers to play out the season in Toronto and not submit any kind of trade list. But that doesn’t mean suitors can’t come asking, nor does it mean the Leafs brass can’t see what’s out there. The very act of asking a player to waive his NMC sends the message that a team doesn’t view that player as part of its long-term plans. So it’s still possible Marner, a 2025 UFA, decides to work with the Leafs on finding a new home. A lot can change between now and October.

If the Leafs end up shipping Marner out in a blockbuster trade…which landing spots might make sense? Consider these destinations.

Buffalo Sabres

Why he makes sense: The time for patience has passed for a Sabres team mired an NHL record 13-year playoff drought. They have more than enough young assets, particularly at forward, to the point they can barely fit them all in the depth chart. The Sabres need veteran difference makers now. They’re swimming in cap space, with RFA goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen representing their lone major contract to work out for 2024-25. They have enough promising youth that they could build a competitive package in a trade offer; it could start with Dylan Cozens, for instance, and include another prospect or first-round pick. And from Marner’s perspective, a short jaunt down the QEW would mean he can change teams without uprooting his life.

Fly in the ointment: Would the Leafs want to trade Marner within their division and have to face him four times a year? Would being so close to Toronto not feel like enough of a fresh start for him? And would he be willing to take a step back in his pursuit of playoff glory by joining the team known for never making the playoffs?

Carolina Hurricanes

Why he makes sense: The Hurricanes are positioned to take a swing this offseason. Under six seasons of coach Rod Brind’Amour, they have a .664 points percentage and have set the league-wide standard for play driving but haven’t broken through to even reach a Stanley Cup Final. One thing the Canes have consistently lacked: an elite-tier point accumulator. They haven’t had a top-10 scorer in the NHL since 2012-13. With so many free agents, they aren’t hurting for cap space should they choose to devote it to Marner. Their ability to offer him a chance to play for another contender could up the odds of him waiving his NMC, and Raleigh as a market would offer a significant reprieve from the smothering Toronto atmosphere.

It also happens that restricted free agent Martin Necas, a right-shooting, scoring-line right winger, is likely done as a Cane, determined to earn a bigger role elsewhere. Given there is some overlap in their skill sets as silky-handed playmakers, it could make sense to send Necas the other way in a Marner deal.

Fly in the ointment: Marner would bring the Canes elite scoring…in the regular season. This team has struggled to get over the hump in clutch moments, so would it actually solve the problem to bring in Marner, whose career points per game drops from 1.11 in the regular season to 0.88 in the playoffs? Also, the Canes and interim GM Eric Tulsky have a lot of cap maneuvering to figure out. On top of Necas being unsigned, breakout right winger Seth Jarvis needs a new deal as an RFA. Defenseman Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei are UFAs. The Canes have to decide whether to go all-in on re-signing left winger Jake Guentzel, too. So whether they have room for Marner’s $10.903 million AAV – and more on an extension – depends on their plans for all their free agents.

Chicago Blackhawks

Why he makes sense: The Blackhawks will soon add another marquee prospect with the No. 2 overall pick and continue constructing their foundation alongside Connor Bedard. But as they approach a critical mass of young talent and find themselves with almost $34 million in cap space this offseason, they’re positioned to start adding and building a competitive team around Bedard. It doesn’t make sense at this juncture for GM Kyle Davidson to chase older UFAs on long-term deals, but a 27-year-old in his prime represents the type of swing that would be prudent. Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid won the Hart and Art Ross Trophies and made the playoffs in their second NHL seasons. If Bedard is to follow their generational-talent trajectory, he needs some quality teammates to play with. Chicago also offers an appealing Original Six market – not like the Toronto experience but far from obscure.

Fly in the ointment: Is it maybe a year too soon for the Hawks to throttle up? Their roster is absolutely barren and it will take more than one big-ticket acquisition to change that. We also have to wonder what package they’d need to send Toronto’s way. Big right-shot blueliner Seth Jones would fill some needs but isn’t exactly playing at his peak level these days. With so few quality veterans, the Hawks would likely have to dip into their prospects and/or picks to balance the ledger on a deal. That’s a risky proposition for a team so far away from winning. Speaking of which: Marner would have to accept the idea that he’s probably missing the playoffs at least in his first season as a Hawk, if not multiple seasons should he sign an extension.

Detroit Red Wings

Why he makes sense: I’ve added the Red Wings as a bonus team. Why? Because they might have the right collection of assets to woo the Leafs and because they’re on the verge of breaking through as a competitive team, having missed the playoffs at the 11th hour this season. Not only would Marner make Detroit’s offense more dangerous, but he’s one of the better defensive forwards in the game to boot. General manager Steve Yzerman could go for a kill shot and, say, offer blueliner Moritz Seider, but the Wings also have a bursting cache of prospects to pull from, from forwards Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson to blueliners Simon Edvinsson and Axel Sandin-Pellikka to goaltenders Trey Augustine and Sebastian Cossa.

Fly in the ointment: Would the Leafs be willing to go backward to go forward? if Detroit wasn’t willing to get wild and dangle Seider, a package for Marner would probably have to be prospect-centric. Are the Leafs willing to remove an All-Star from their lineup to get younger? The fit makes a lot of sense from Detroit’s side. It’s debatable from Toronto’s side if Seider isn’t involved.

Nashville Predators

Why he makes sense: No, this isn’t a direct response to those rumors that were spat at GM Barry Trotz recently. The Preds simply make sense as a fit. Trotz has established himself as an aggressive roster overhauler, continuing a tradition established by his predecessor David Poile. Nashville was a lot more competitive than many expected in 2023-24, and a player of Marner’s ilk could elevate them into a higher tier. When looking ahead to a potential extension: Tennessee has no state income tax, so Marner could earn major coin at a palatable cap hit. The Predators could build an offer around stud goaltender Juuse Saros.

Fly in the ointment: It seems more likely the Leafs look to the free agent market – perhaps at someone like Laurent Brossoit – and sign a mid-tier option to pair with Joseph Woll, which would cost them only money and not assets. If Saros isn’t part of an offer, do the Predators actually have the assets to acquire Marner? Luke Evangelista and prospects isn’t going to get it done.

Seattle Kraken

Why he make sense: The Kraken’s trajectory has been strange. They levelled up in Year 2, got to within one game of the Western Conference Final and elevated fan expectations in the process. The bubble burst this past season. Now their immediate future is cloudy. They looked nothing like a playoff team in 2023-24. But they have a new coach in Dan Bylsma, some exciting young forwards on the way in Shane Wright and Jagger Firkus and a really underrated goaltender in Joey Daccord. Marner would give them their first true star and accelerate their maturation as a contender. The Kraken also have quite a few veteran assets without too much term left on their deals who make for handy trade bait. Big blueliners like Adam Larsson and Jamie Oleksiak would likely appeal to Treliving.

Fly in the ointment: If I’m fielding a trade pitch from Seattle, I’m not giving up my perennial 90-point scorer for a lowball offer. I want Wright or Matty Beniers coming my way. But Seattle has only been building up its pipeline of young talent for a few years; would they have to gut it too much to acquire Marner?

Utah HC

Why he makes sense: New owner Ryan Smith want the Delta Center rocking for Game 1 and onward. What better way to cultivate a potentially enthusiastic new fan base than by securing a star to build around? Utah and GM Bill Armstrong also probably have the best variety of assets to offer, ranging from up and coming young players (Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, etc,), oodles of draft picks or, in a blockbuster scenario, a good friend of Matthews and potential new linemate in Clayton Keller. There are many interesting permutations to consider.

Fly in the ointment: As is also the case with the Seattle scenario: Utah is a long, long way from Toronto, where Marner has grown up. Moving cross-continent to an unknown hockey market would feel like a banishment in way. Would the Marner camp really want to gamble on his future when they have the ability to sit on the NMC and pick their landing spot next summer if it comes to that?

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