Six trade destinations to watch for St. Louis Blues’ Pavel Buchnevich

Credit: Pavel Buchnevich (© Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports)

We’re a little more than a week out from the March 8 NHL trade deadline, and we continue to provide at least one deadline-focused story per day on Daily Faceoff.

Today, we look at potential landing spots for a coveted scoring forward with term left on his contract: St. Louis Blues left winger Pavel Buchnevich.

2024 NHL Trade Deadline Countdown: 9 days

By this time last season, some major dominos in the NHL’s arms race had already fallen. Bo Horvat, Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly changed teams weeks before the deadline. This year: after the market popped with Elias Lindholm and Sean Monahan trades during the All-Star break, things have been dormant for a month. Some high-impact forwards remain on the market. The Pittsburgh Penguins’ Jake Guentzel will continue to generate the most buzz and justifiably so, but don’t sleep on the Blues’ Buchnevich.

Buchnevich has been highly productive since the Blues acquired him from the New York Rangers in summer 2021 for Sammy Blais and a second-round pick in what was essentially a salary dump as the Blueshirts tried to navigate a flat cap. Functioning primarily as St. Louis’ first-line left winger but capable of playing either wing, he’s picked up 190 points in 192 games over the past three seasons. While a point-per-game pace isn’t the accomplishment it was even five years ago with offense exploding league-wide in recent years, Buchnevich ranks 33^rd among all forwards (min. 100 GP) in points per game since 2021-22, north of stars such as Jack Eichel, Brad Marchand and Mark Scheifele. With an extra season left on his deal at a $5.8 million AAV, Buchnevich could be preferable to Guentzel in the eyes of some suitors as a multi-year rental.

On the other hand, the extra year means the Blues, who are in retool mode and still in the playoff hunt, don’t have to move Buchnevich. It will thus take a significant offer to land him. The ballpark asking price, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, could be two first-round picks “or something like it.” Buchnevich also has a 12-team no-trade list.

But if the right suitor emerges to entice Blues GM Doug Armstrong to deal and Buchnevich to waive his NTC, we could see a blockbuster in the coming days. Which teams are the best fits for Buchnevich? Consider these destinations.

Buffalo Sabres

Why he makes sense: Good question. The Sabres aren’t sniffing the postseason in 2023-24. Their NHL-record playoff drought will soon extend to 13 years. But what Buffalo badly needs isn’t youth; this franchise is swimming in prospects, especially at the forward position. The Sabres need some established higher-end veteran players to help make them more competitive in the near future. Buchnevich, 28, would qualify as an investment for next season and, if the Sabres are doomed to miss the playoffs next year too, can be shopped as a rental asset.

What it might cost: That almost shouldn’t matter for GM Kevyn Adams. This team’s prospect pool is bursting at the seams, with Zach Benson, Matt Savoie and Jiri Kulich emerging as the next wave, not to mention Jack Quinn returning from injury eventually. Buffalo needs to get comfortable sacrificing one of them – or perhaps an underachieving youngster such as Peyton Krebs – and/or draft capital. You can’t fit all these kids into your lineup at once anyway.

Fly in the ointment: Buffalo doesn’t really have urgency to make a deadline deal in the next nine days if the right one doesn’t materialize. They could explore their options in the offseason and would have far more players to choose from. Also, don’t forget Buchnevich’s no-trade list. Might the hapless Sabres be on it?

Carolina Hurricanes

Why he makes sense: To beat that dead horse just one more time: The Canes are almost at their Cup-or-bust juncture and badly need another marquee scorer if they want to break their pattern of entering the playoffs as an elite team only to get beaten out by an opponent with superior star power. They’re on pace for Sebastian Aho to be their lone 30-goal or 70-point producer.

What it might cost: The Canes check the first-round-pick box, still holding theirs for the next three drafts. Given the extra year of Buchnevich, we can’t rule out the Blues asking for a high-end prospect in the vein of Scott Morrow or Alexander Nikishin. Gotta give something to get something.

Fly in the ointment: Guentzel is a true game breaker, someone who has led a Stanley Cup-winning team in playoff goals. Buchnevich fits under the “very good” umbrella. He’s a great complementary piece, but does he put you over the top? He has one goal in 20 career postseason games.

Detroit Red Wings

Why he makes sense: Whether you believe the Red Wings loaded up on veterans too soon or not – somehow this “rebuilding” team is the 11^th-oldest in the NHL this season – they’re clearly gaining playoff momentum, having remained in the hunt all year long, buoyed by the additions of Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane. General manager Steve Yzerman hasn’t been tested as a buyer as Red Wings GM yet since the team hasn’t sniffed the playoffs in eight years, but he was pretty aggressive as Tampa Bay Lightning GM during seasons in which his team was in the hunt. For a team that believes it’s just entering its contention window, Buchnevich could be a sensible buy given he has that extra year left on his deal.

What it might cost: The Wings dealt their 2024 first-rounder to the Ottawa Senators for DeBrincat but still have Boston’s first-rounder, acquired in the Tyler Bertuzzi trade last year, and the option to send the Boston pick or their own pick to Ottawa. The Wings also have their 2025 and 2026 firsts. They haven’t dipped into their robust prospect pool at all, either. They can match pretty much any suitor, asset for asset. I don’t see them having to pony up one of their top prospects for Buchnevich – the likes of Marco Kasper, Simon Edvinsson, Sebastian Cossa are all safe – but when you have as many good prospects as Detroit, you can scroll half a dozen names down their list and still get a good one. Think Carter Mazur.

Fly in the ointment: Is it too soon to shoot your shot? This Wings team is very much a work in progress. They’ve been a fun story to watch but are actually one of the worst 5-on-5 teams in the NHL this season. Shot attempt share, scoring chances for and against per 60 – you name it and Detroit sits near the bottom of the league, nestled among tanker teams like the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks. The Red Wings are not as good as their record, full stop. They could suddenly slump at any moment. Are they better off just sticking with what they have and seeing how the chips fall?

Edmonton Oilers

Why he makes sense: It’s no secret the Oilers want to add another high-end forward. How strong of a fit is Buchnevich? It has already been reported that the Oilers are actively scouting him. They’re five deep in quality forwards with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evander Kane, but Connor Brown has been a disaster and Corey Perry is a ideally a third-liner at 38 years old. The Oilers are pretty clearly all-in, and one more year of Buchnevich is perfect for a two-year push, as it’s the season after next, 2025-26, when Draisaitl and blueliner Evan Bouchard need new contracts.

What it might cost: The Oilers own all their upcoming first-round picks. If they go a different route and package a prospect with one first-rounder, replicating the package they gave up for Mattias Ekholm last year, we’re looking at a first-rounder and one of Philip Broberg or Dylan Holloway.

Fly in the ointment: It’s the same hangup I had when considering Guentzel as a candidate for the Oilers. Another front-line forward would be exciting, but the Oilers are already elite offensively. What they need more is another top-four defenseman and, I would argue, an insurance policy in net behind the inconsistent Stuart Skinner. Are we sure GM Ken Holland should push his chips in for more scoring? The $5.8 million cap hit would also be hard for Edmonton to accommodate without throwing a veteran player overboard, even if 50 percent salary retention were involved.

New York Rangers

Why he makes sense: With Filip Chytil and Blake Wheeler suffering season-ending injuries, the Blueshirts are down two top-nine forwards. That won’t do for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations, and GM Chris Drury has been aggressive the past two deadlines when it comes to adding forwards, snagging Andrew Copp and Frank Vatrano in 2022 and Tarasenko and Kane last year. Buchnevich’s most common linemates during his best years as a Ranger, when he was playing the right wing more frequently: Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad, who happen to be the duo badly in need of a right winger on this team. The fit doesn’t get much better than “was their linemate before.”

What it might cost: While the Rangers are low on second- and third-round picks for the next few years, they own all their first-round picks. Psychologically, though, would it feel like a defeat if you had to give up a prospect to reacquire a player you dumped three years ago?

Fly in the ointment: Third-line center is arguably the higher-priority position to target. Would New York thus be better off chasing Adam Henrique or Scott Laughton? That said, Drury is averaging two top-nine forward acquisitions per deadline as a GM, so perhaps he finds a way to get one of these guys plus Buchnevich.

Vegas Golden Knights

Why he makes sense: Unless you spent the past week in a log cabin with no power, it’s obvious. Right now, Jack Eichel is on long-term injured reserve, and he may come off just in time for Vegas to slide Mark Stone’s $9.5 million into that spot. However they execute it, the Golden Knights are positioned to have significant cap space to burn in the next nine days. They glaringly need a winger to replace Stone, whose lacerated spleen could keep him out for the entire stretch run. If not Guentzel, Buchnevich is the other obvious difference maker potentially available.

What it might cost: Last season, when Armstrong and Golden Knights GM Kelly McCrimmon put their heads together, it cost Vegas one of their first-round prospects, Zach Dean, to secure what was a pending UFA rental from the Blues at the time in Ivan Barbashev. Even if he was a rental, Buchnevich’s game would be held in higher regard than Barbashev’s was a year ago, and then you must factor in the extra year of team control. So we’re looking at a first-round pick, which Vegas has for the next three drafts, plus (a) another first-round pick or a prospect such as Brendan Brisson.

Fly in the ointment: Buchnevich is a scorer and offensive facilitator but not a true sniper. Vegas sits 15^th in the NHL in goals per game and might want to prioritize Guentzel and consider Buchnevich more of a Plan B. We’re picking nits in this case, however.

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