Forget last year: Jets have huge edge in Stanley Cup chase with Connor Hellebuyck
Welcome to part 3 of Daily Faceoff Stanley Cup Ingredients 2024-25. I’ve developed a formula consisting of seven common ingredients among recent Stanley Cup champions, using the previous 10 seasons as the sample to study. You can click here for a more detailed breakdown of the inspiration for the formula and how accurately it has predicted teams going deep in the playoffs.
So far, we’ve explored how championships correlate to team weight and top-10 scorers. Next, we examine whether elite goaltending remains as important as ever in the hunt for Lord Stanley’s Mug.
Stanley Cup Ingredient #3: TOP-10 GOALTENDER
How many times have we seen a powerhouse team fall short in the postseason because their goaltending lets them down and/or they run into an opponent whose goaltending gets hot? It feels like goalies’ impact on playoff success is disproportionate compared to the regular season. A dominant Winnipeg Jets team fell apart in Round 1 last year because its all-world netminder Connor Hellebuyck had one bad week. The season prior, Sergei Bobrovsky almost singlehandedly willed the Florida Panthers to multiple playoff series wins, leading them to the Final, and his consistent showing last spring helped them finish the job.
How strong is the correlation between a top-10 regular-season goalie and winning a Cup? Let’s have a look at the past 10 seasons. We define a top-10 goalie as one who played at least half his team’s games and posted a top-10 save percentage in that sample. We go with regular-season numbers as it’s the best sample size you can ask for if you’re a contending team hoping for sustained success in the spring. And even though save percentage is more of a team stat than goals saved above expected, we want the team stat factored in here, as we’re measuring how well an elite goalie works in conjunction with an elite team.
| Season | Champion | Top-10 Goaltender? |
| 2014-15 | Chicago | Yes (Crawford, .924) |
| 2015-16 | Pittsburgh | Yes (Fleury, .921*) |
| 2016-17 | Pittsburgh | Yes (Murray, .923) |
| 2017-18 | Washington | No |
| 2018-19 | St. Louis | Yes (Binnington, .927*) |
| 2019-20 | Tampa Bay | Yes (Vasilevskiy, .917) |
| 2020-21 | Tampa Bay | Yes (Vasilevskiy, .925) |
| 2021-22 | Colorado | Yes (Kuemper, .921) |
| 2022-23 | Vegas | No |
| 2023-24 | Florida | Yes (Bobrovsky, .915) |
Stanley Cup correlation: Very strong
Eight of the past 10 champions and five of the past six have sported an elite goaltender. Drilling deeper, five of the past 10 have carried a Hall of Fame grade goaltender heading into the playoffs. While even the best puck-stoppers can go cold, it’s more common for them to sustain their stellar play on championship teams. The likes of Binnington, Vasilevskiy and Bobrovsky all played major roles in backstopping their teams through the playoffs en route to the Cup.
What does the leaderboard look like this season in terms of elite goaltenders? Which top contenders have one?
(through games March 18)
2024-25 NHL leaders, save percentage (min. half team’s games played)
1. Connor Hellebuyck, WPG, ,924
2. Andrei Vasilevskiy, TB, .920
3. Darcy Kuemper, LA. .918
4. Logan Thompson, WSH, .917
5. Mackenzie Blackwood, COL, .915
6. Filip Gustavsson, MIN, .915
7. Dustin Wolf, CGY, .912
8. Linus Ullmark, OTT, .911
9. Joey Daccord, SEA, .909
10. Pyotr Kochetkov, CAR, .909
Eight of the top 10 stop pucks for teams currently occupying playoff positions, meaning half the field would have top-10 workhorse goaltenders if the postseason started today. That includes the conference-leading Jets and Washington Capitals, who have probable top-two Vezina vote-getters in Hellebuyck and Logan Thompson.
About Hellebuyck: the ugly performance last spring stings, but the historical stats suggest the Jets are still better equipped than anyone in net heading into the playoffs. The much larger sample size tells us Hellebuyck is arguably the top goalie of his generation, poised to win a third Vezina Trophy, something only three other netminders have done since 1981-82, when the Vezina became a voted-on award rather than going to the goalie on the team allowing the fewest goals. Also: Hellebuyck’s choker narrative is overblown. He struggled last April but still carries a .911 career SV% in the playoffs, 11th best among active goalies with 30 or more career postseason appearances. The Jets are thus strongly positioned to make a serious run at the Stanley Cup.
That said: don’t sleep on the Tampa Bay Lightning. Vasilevskiy is an all-time clutch goalie, a Conn Smythe Trophy winner, and he’s playing his best hockey in years.
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Previous instalments of Stanley Cup Ingredients 2025
Next up: Shot attempt share
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POST SPONSORED BY bet365
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