The Sell-O-Meter: Which NHL bubble teams should consider pulling the plug?

Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

We’re now approximately a third of the way through the 2023–24 NHL regular season, which means it’s about time for teams to start making tough decisions about the right way forward.

A select few clubs entered the season with the expectation of contending. About a half-dozen others knew full well they’d be down in the basement, all but playing out the string until the draft lottery.

Equidistant from those two extremes are the teams in the mushy middle of the NHL standings. At this point, those bubble squads are starting to get a pretty good idea of where they stand with roughly 55-60 games remaining in the standings.

Insiders from around the hockey world, including Daily Faceoff‘s own Frank Seravalli, have already begun to share tidbits about which players could be made available by their teams well in advance of the March 8 trade deadline. Many of the players expected to garner interest are currently with teams on the bubble (or further out).

With all that in mind, we’re introducing a new feature here at DFO today: the Sell-O-Meter. This thoroughly complex and scientific gauge will help illustrate my own semi-subjective thoughts about which of a selection of bubble teams are more likely to sell, stand pat, or even buy over the coming weeks.

Here’s a look at the Sell-O-Meter, which we’ll start to fill up with teams over the course of this piece. Say hi!

(The Sell-O-Meter is very appreciative of your greetings.)

Anywho, with all that preamble behind us, let’s kick things off with a prospective bubble team that has exceeded expectations and could be on the verge of buying after years of trading players away …

Arizona Coyotes

Status: … Are we buyers?

Entering the 2023–24 season, the Coyotes proclaimed that they wanted to be more competitive. They backed up that talk with the additions of Sean Durzi, Jason Zucker, Matt Dumba, and Alex Kerfoot, as well as the re-acquisitions of Nick Bjugstad and Troy Stecher.

Now, here we are. Instead of being the bottom-feeder we’ve all come to know so well, the Coyotes have turned into a bubble team with genuine playoff aspirations. It looked for a minute like they might go crashing back down into the cellar when they lost consecutive games to Winnipeg, L.A., and St. Louis … and then they became the first team in 78 years to beat the five most recent Stanley Cup champions in a row. Their 4-3 overtime win over the Avalanche on November 30 was particularly impressive.

These Coyotes belong as close to the green end of our Sell-O-Meter as possible. At this point, it’s easy to imagine AZ general manager Bill Armstrong asking his management team that exact question: “… Are we buyers?” And given all the recent rumblings connecting pending UFA defenseman Noah Hanifin to the Coyotes, it looks like the answer to that question might just be “Yes”. It’s been 12 years since the state of Arizona hosted a Stanley Cup playoff game, and we’re already fascinated by the prospect of postseason hockey at Mullett Arena.

Hey, speaking of Hanifin …

Calgary Flames

Status: Trade everyone!

Yeah, these Flames are quite simply not going to be buyers. They’ve already sold Nikita Zadorov to the Vancouver Canucks and, by all indications, guys like Hanifin, Chris Tanev, and Elias Lindholm could be next on the chopping block.

Remember that Trade Targets board? The No. 1, 3, 4, and 5 players on that list all still played for the Flames at publication time. Zadorov (No. 4) is now off the market, but the other three very much remain in play. And after losing back-to-back games to the Canucks and Wild, the Flames are in danger of falling completely out of the playoff race — especially if the Oilers keep winning.

At this point, what the Flames sorely need is a high draft pick or two. They’ve never picked higher than fourth overall at the NHL Draft, and that’s only happened once (Sam Bennett, 2014). The Flames and Golden Knights are the only two current NHL teams to have never made a top-three selection. And while Vegas is the reigning Stanley Cup champ, the Flames are as far away from contending as anyone. A true fire sale (no pun intended) is the only reasonable path forward.

Alrighty! With two very different teams now in the can, let’s check in on the Sell-O-Meter.

Great! It’s working. We’ll leave it be for now and come back to it at the end of the piece.

*assorted beeps and whirring sounds*

Yes, Sell-O-Meter, you’re doing an excellent job. Happy holidays to you, too.

Onto the next few teams!

St. Louis Blues

Status: Open for business

Blues general manager Doug Armstrong was very candid in his appearance on the Frankly Speaking show back in November, freely admitting that his team isn’t in the same position to retool on the fly like they did in the years leading up to their 2019 Stanley Cup championship.

Alex Pietrangelo is busy winning in Vegas. Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, and David Perron are long gone. And while Robert Thomas looks the part of a No. 1 center on the upswing, this team’s defensive group is a shell of its former self and its complementary forwards are either overpaid or soon to become free agents.

Pavel Buchnevich is set to go UFA in 2025. Kasperi Kapanen, Sammy Blais, Marco Scandella, and Jakub Vrana are all pending free agents next summer. Those guys could all go. But the Blues’ biggest hindrance is their trio of veteran defensemen, none of whom is a top-pair guy at this point, each making $6.5 million a year seemingly until the end of time. They almost succeeded in dumping Torey Krug on the Flyers over the summer, but that fell through when Krug refused to waive his no-trade clause. If the Blues could move him, they surely would.

By the way, about those Flyers …

Philadelphia Flyers

Status: Stay the course

Against all odds, John Tortorella has these Flyers in third place in the Atlantic Division at the 25-game mark of the year. Had Krug known things would be going so well in Philly, he might’ve agreed to waive after all. Sean Couturier has returned with a vengeance, looking the part of a No. 1 center and a legit Selke Trophy candidate, while Travis Konecny, Joel Farabee, Bobby Brink, and Owen Tippett have provided energy and offense at their respective spots in the lineup.

The one major outlier for this Flyers team is Morgan Frost, who has struggled to earn Tortorella’s trust this year after popping off with 19 goals and 46 points in 2022–23. At this point, it seems as though Tortorella believes Frost isn’t good enough to play top-six minutes, nor does his style of play allow him to handle bottom-six deployment. A change of scenery could be just what Frost needs.

Otherwise, the Flyers have been a rare overachiever in an otherwise disappointing Metropolitan Division. The Penguins and Devils have both struggled to find success off the hop, opening the door for a resurgent team like these Flyers to take advantage. They certainly aren’t in any position to buy — their next big addition is slated to arrive sometime in 2026 — but they also won’t be sellers if this keeps up.

Alright, give me one second as I go shift the Sell-O-Meter into French mode.

I give you … le Sell-O-Mètre. Allons-y!

Montreal Canadiens

Status: Trade everyone!

The one and only non-Flame listed in the top five of Seravalli’s most recent Trade Targets board just so happens to be a former Flame: Sean Monahan, who is currently in the midst of his second season with the Canadiens. Monahan looks to finally be healthy again after many difficult seasons plagued by injuries, and he currently ranks fourth on the Habs with eight goals and 15 points in 25 games. He’ll garner interest ahead of the deadline (provided he’s still on the active roster by then).

Monahan isn’t the only current Canadien who could be on the move by March. Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki aren’t going anywhere, but goaltenders Jake Allen and Cayden Primeau could move (Montreal is currently carrying three goaltenders, with the recently extended Samuel Montembeault being the other). It’s easy to imagine prospective playoff teams also coveting guys like Jake Evans and Tanner Pearson, both of whom have experience going on long runs.

Then there’s Josh Anderson, who has had a rotten start to his fourth season in Montreal. He’s scored 17, 19, and 21 goals the last three years, but there’s no sugar-coating how ineffective he’s been this season — and how problematic his contract, which has three years left after this one at a $5.5 million AAV, now looks. That said, Anderson is the type of player old-school NHL GMs always covet: the Big Body Presence. That’s a big reason why Montreal signed him to that deal in the first place. With some salary retention, he might have some value as a reclamation project.

Nashville Predators

Status: … Are we buyers?

Don’t look now, but the Predators have suddenly won eight of their last 10 games and sit just two points back of the Coyotes for fourth place in the Central Division. Filip Forsberg has been terrific, Ryan O’Reilly looks like his old self, and Juuse Saros has begun to rediscover his previous form after an underwhelming start to the season. While the Blues have one more point than the Predators, they also have a minus-7 goal differential; Nashville is even.

Of all the teams on this list, Nashville is probably the one that fits the least into one specific category. Sure, they might be asking themselves if they’ll be buyers, but at the same time, there’s no reason for them not to simply stay the course at this point. They still have some self-discovery to do under new GM Barry Trotz. That said, it seems things have already come to a head with one of this team’s pending UFAs.

Tyson Barrie sure looks to be on his way out of Nashville after Trotz ripped the underperforming defender a new one during a radio hit earlier this week. Barrie is hardly the most consequential player on the market and the Predators likely won’t draw a huge return for him in any trade. But, if they do make that move, where will they go from there? Roman Josi isn’t getting any younger and Saros is set to hit free agency in 2025. If these Predators choose not to be buyers, at what point do they start looking at moving those two players?

Minnesota Wild

Status: Stay the course (for now)

Fittingly, the Wild find themselves right in the middle ground of the Sell-O-Meter. They’re firmly in the midst of a classic New Coach Bump under John Hynes, with their current run of four consecutive wins catapulting them up to at least the periphery of the Central Division race. At the very least, the Wild are no longer fraternizing with the likes of Chicago and San Jose in the Western Conference basement.

Wild general manager Bill Guerin has already played one pretty big card with the coaching change. By buying out Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, Guerin willingly imposed a bit of an artificial ceiling on this iteration of the Wild. Even with Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello, and Joel Eriksson Ek chugging along, the Wild are operating at a $14.7 million budgetary deficit compared to almost every other club. That’s not something that can be overcome with one panic trade.

This Minnesota team has proven in recent years that it can be competitive. Brock Faber and Marco Rossi are now on the scene and both have another year left after this one on their respective entry-level contracts. The Wild badly need cheap contributors and those two guys perfectly fit the bill. If Minnesota can trade pending UFA veterans like Patrick Maroon and Alex Goligoski to make room for more young upstarts, then great. But much like some other bubble teams not listed here (including Ottawa, Buffalo, and Anaheim), the Wild don’t have much in the way of obvious trade bait. Just like how Ottawa isn’t about to part with Tim Stützle, Minnesota won’t be selling Kaprizov. At this point, pretty much all the Wild can do is stay the course.

OK, that’s probably enough teams for now. Let’s check in on how the Sell-O-Meter is holding up.

And there you have it! The Sell-O-Meter is completely full. Not bad for a prototype. Check back in two or three months if and when fire this thing up again for a special Trade Deadline preview piece.

Until then … sell ya later!

_____

Discover Betano.ca – a premium Sports Betting and Online Casino experience. Offering numerous unique and dynamic betting options along with diverse digital and live casino games, Betano is where The Game Starts Now. 19+. Please play responsibly.