Why it’s time for the Red Wings to become buyers

It was close to two months ago that I called the ‘Yzerplan’ into question in Detroit. It was met with a heavy amount of backlash, specifically referring to GM Steve Yzerman being open from the beginning of his time in Detroit that this thing would take time.

It will be six years this summer that Yzerman has been steering the Red Wings ship; it was a fair timeframe to start to poke holes in the plan. But one thing that was tossed my way a few times after my article dropped seemed to become a consistent theme: head coach Derek Lalonde.

Lalonde, who was in his third season manning the bench for the Red Wings, was caught in the cross hairs quite a bit for those who both follow and cover the team. Admittedly, I don’t watch every Red Wings game, but it felt like a lazy excuse to lay the Red Wings’ early season struggles at the feet of Lalonde. Perhaps I’m too much affected by recent history in the NHL, but tossing the coach under the bus has become a much too easy “get out of jail free card” for struggling teams over the last number of years.

While I don’t think it was the only problem, I do have to eat my words on this one: a coaching change has sparked something in the Motor City.

A little more than a month ago, Todd McLellan was brought in to replace Lalonde behind the bench. The Red Wings have not looked back. The Red Wings have found themselves right back in the playoff race as one of the league’s hottest teams since the holidays; they have won seven of their last 10, on a six game win streak, and currently find themselves occupying the first Wildcard seed in the Eastern Conference.

While I still have my reservations about the long term outlook in Detroit, I must admit the play of the Red Wings under McLellan is striking. The roster is not bad by any means, but on paper, on the back end specifically, there was a lot left to be desired; McLellan has certainly shifted that view.

So with the Red Wings back in the hunt and one of the league’s hottest teams, one must ask: are they gearing up to add ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline?

With Yzerman at the helm, we will never truly know what the goings on in Detroit are behind the scenes. Given the way the Red Wings’ front office operates, you’d have a better chance breaking into Fort Knox than trying to figure out the team’s plan. But that doesn’t mean we can’t take our best guess, right?

While the team has played better under McLellan as a whole, the underlying numbers aren’t great for the Red Wings. Sure, the start of the season under Lalonde is contributing to what the metrics look like, but they still aren’t pretty after more than a month under McLellan despite the results being what they are.

Per moneypuck.com, the Red Wings rank 28th in the NHL in expected goals percentage. Specifically, they are fourth from the bottom in xG per 60 for and have the 10th highest xG against per 60. Overall, the Red Wings fifth from the bottom in XG goal differential.

This is not to say that the Red Wings are a mirage – as mentioned earlier, the club’s play under Lalonde is contributing to these numbers – but even in the last month during their hot streak, they sit 26th in expected goals against per 60 at 5-on-5, per Natural Stat Trick. So there is something to the fact that this club may be overachieving at the moment. Biggest reason? The goaltending.

Cam Talbot has been better than anyone could’ve expected this season; per money puck, he ranks 11th in xG against per 60 among goaltenders who have played at least 10 games. As a whole, the Red Wings rank 10th in save percentage on shots on goal. Not to say they’re getting elite goaltending, but it is clear that the strongest part of the team for the majority of the season has been between the pipes.

So if Yzerman were to make an addition to his group, where would it be?

Detroit’s offense has improved quite a bit under McLellan, so I look at the defense as a point of concern. Especially in light of the Jeff Petry injury, the Red Wings could use some help on the back end; an addition back there may help contribute to the offense, as well. Aside from Simon Edvinsson (20) and Moritz Seider (32), no Detroit defenseman has reached the 20 point plateau this season.

As Daily Faceoff’s Matt Larkin wrote about a few weeks back, Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen could make sense for the Red Wings. The 30 year old does have two years remaining on his contract at an AAV of $5.1 million, so the Red Wings would have to be prepared to absorb a non-rental; I also have no indication that the Flyers would entertain retaining salary on Ristolainen, either. Ristolainen isn’t exactly an offensive dynamo – though he has gotten power play time as of late – so I’m not sure if he is exactly what the Red Wings need, but his uptick in defensive play would help them on that end of the ice. His recent injury will also surely play a factor.

Up front, the proof is in the pudding: the Red Wings need an offensive jolt. Beyond Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, Patrick Kane and Lucas Raymond, there are no Detroit forwards who are on pace to crack 40 points. In a league that is as offensive as ever, that is something that absolutely needs to be addressed if Yzerman hopes his group can be competitive in the playoff race until the end of the regular season. The power play has drastically improved since McLellan arrived, but the 5-on-5 scoring needs work.

I do think an addition down the middle of the ice would be optimal for the Red Wings. Larkin aside, there is not a lot of offense coming from that area of the ice. Problem is, most of the league is looking for a center help, and most of the pickings are slim.

Does Brock Nelson make sense? Perhaps, but as a rental and the top trade target on Frank Seravalli’s board, I don’t think he fits the portfolio for what the Red Wings are looking for. Buffalo Sabres pivot Dylan Cozens would make a lot of sense with significant term left on his deal, but it still sounds like GM Kevyn Adams is reluctant to move on from the workhorse from Whitehorse.

The next few weeks will determine if the Red Wings can keep pace in the ever crowded Eastern Conference playoff race, but Yzerman would be best served looking to bring in reinforcements should he actually have playoff aspirations for his group.

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Why it’s time for the Red Wings to become buyers

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