Up to you, Leon: Draisaitl will decide Oilers’ Stanley Cup fate

Credit: Jun 15, 2024; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl (29) and Florida Panthers center Anton Lundell (15) battles for the puck during the first period in game four of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

EDMONTON — As Oil Country works itself into a lather for a Friday night party unlike any other, Edmonton’s once Everest-like task can be summited like so: If Leon Draisaitl puts up just one monster night over the next four, the Edmonton Oilers will be Stanley Cup champions.

Yes, only one team can win the Stanley Cup on Friday night, but it’s that simple. If Draisaitl is Deutsche for dominant, the Florida Panthers are in big trouble.

Connor McDavid is threatening two more Wayne Gretzky records, ridiculous in its own right, and is now on the brink of the best individual playoff in hockey history.

And somehow, his partner in crime, the Batman to Superman – and the best playoff performer of his generation – is in danger of something that has never happened in his previous 12 postseason series. He has never failed to register at least three points in one series. The Panthers have held him to two assists through five games.

McDrai Points by Round

Connor McDavid	Opponent	Leon Draisaitl
12	Los Angeles (5 GP)	10
9	Vancouver (7 GP)	14
10	Dallas (6 GP)	4
11	Florida (thru 5 GP)	2

Draisaitl has averaged 10 points per round over the last three playoffs runs including this spring. So far, Florida blanked him in four out of five games, and it’s been perplexing watching the three-time 50-goal scorer. He clearly seems to be managing an injury but doesn’t appear to be laboring when skating. The odd part of these playoffs is that McDavid, believed to be dealing with a hip malady that will likely require surgery and was lacking his usual burst early, appears to have gotten healthier the deeper the Oilers have played. The cumulative effect seems to have gotten to Draisaitl.

There is no obvious clue, but that is the only logical explanation, right? Draisaitl posted 24 points through the first two rounds this spring, he has just six since.

“It’s very frustrating of course,” Draisaitl said last week, when the Oilers found themselves in a 3-0 hole. “I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well. Just can’t seem to get anything going. Obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better.”

That isn’t just any player saying he has to take a look in the mirror as the Oilers stare down a third straight elimination game. Some players are born with a clutch gene and Draisaitl is one of them, proven going back to Kelowna as both MVP and leading scorer of the Memorial Cup. Earlier this postseason, Draisaitl, now 28, became the third fastest player in history to record 100 career playoff points. The other two guys? The Great One and Super Mario.

Draisaitl has led two separate postseasons – once in goals (2023) and once in points (2022) – despite the fact this is his first trip to the Stanley Cup Final. Think about that.

He’s also shown an incredible ability to play hurt, which makes these last two series all the more surprising. Hobbled on one leg with a high-ankle sprain, Draisaitl torched the Calgary Flames for 17 points in five games in the 2022 Battle of Alberta – the stuff of legend that is still talked about on both sides of Red Deer.

To that end, coach Kris Knoblauch says the point production hasn’t painted an accurate picture – even though that’s the standard all superstars are judged upon.

“You look at the points and the goals for, and so often you just look at those stat lines and you think he’s not playing well,” Knoblauch said Thursday.

Knoblauch said that the number of chances compared to the goals scored “doesn’t add up” and it’s “very similar to what [I] said after the first three games of this series for our team, could be the same as what I’m going to say about Leon.”

“It doesn’t tell the whole picture,” Knoblauch said. “I think of Leon’s game right now: He’s been playing well. Has it been sometimes what it was against [the Kings] in the L.A. series, or other times during the playoffs? Maybe not quite. But it’s still be pretty good. He’s been doing a lot of things for our team and just missing the goals and assists, and that has a lot to do with the luck factor.”

Luck may play a small part in it. That was the same message, after all, that Knoblauch was selling after Game 3 when the Oilers scored four times over the first three contests. The dam broke with eight behind Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz in Game 4.

There has also been a lineup component that Knoblauch hasn’t quite unlocked yet. Draisaitl played Game 5 with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Dylan Holloway. He’s also played with Ryan McLeod, Corey Perry and Adam Henrique in this series – on top of his usual break glass in-case-of-emergency deployment with McDavid and Zach Hyman in high-stress moments.

Evander Kane is expected to draw back in for Game 6 after a two-game absence with injury, which presents a new slate of opportunities to find the right mix.

“We have possibilities,” Knoblauch said when asked about Kane’s availability on Thursday.

As the Oilers climbed back in this series, they’ve added most of the ingredients from their recipe for success. The playoffs’ leading goal scorer, Hyman, got on the scoreboard for the first time. Their power play struck twice in Game 5 after starting the series on a 1-for-16 skid. They even got another shorthanded goal from an unlikely source in Connor Brown, who was scratched for the entire first round of the playoffs.

The last spot open on the bingo card is No. 29. One way or the other, Draisaitl will have a lot to say about the result. Captain Connor has done more than his fair share of the heavy lifting with back-to-back four-point games for the first time ever in the Final. It’s down to Draisaitl for a shot at lifting 34.5 pounds of glory.

_____

Hey, hockey heads! Get ready for The Daily Faceoff Playoff Parlay Challenge! Each game day, answer four playoff prediction questions like who will win the first game, will points be over or under or what will be the highest-scoring period? Daily winners snag gift cards, while each round’s champs pocket cash! Play now at games.dailyfaceoff.com and prove your puck prowess! It’s fast, it’s fun, and it’s all about hockey! Let’s go!

Up to you, Leon: Draisaitl will decide Oilers’ Stanley Cup fate

McDrai Points by Round

Recently by Frank Seravalli