NHL to decide whether teams must qualify charged Hockey Canada players

Credit: Dec 22, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Carter Hart (79) skates in the second period against the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The offseason is in full swing for all but two of the NHL’s 32 clubs, as the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers get set to square off in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final on Saturday.

Teams have had months to prepare and peruse the numbers. Here’s an offseason primer on some lesser profile contractual situations to watch:

Players in Danger of Not Receiving Qualifying Offers

According to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams must extend qualifying offers to restricted free agents (RFAs) in order to retain their rights. Teams have until June 30 at 5:00 p.m. ET to issue these qualifying offers, which are one-year deals that are equal to their salary from the previous season for players that earned $1 million or more. If a player does not receive a qualifying offer by the deadline, he will become an unrestricted free agent (UFA) two days later on July 1. Players are not obligated to accept qualifying offers, but their issuance locks in their rights to that team. A qualifying offer gives a team a right to match if a player signs an offer sheet. Teams and players can always negotiate a new deal less than the mandatory qualifying offer, which sometimes happens, but the player can opt for UFA status if not.

Carter Hart (PHI), Dillon Dube (CGY), Michael McLeod (NJD), Cal Foote (NJD)
Qualifying offers due: $4.479 million; $2.4 million; $1.4 million; $840,000
Scoop: All four of these players took indefinite, voluntary leaves of absence from their teams in January, shortly before they were formally charged by the London (Ont.) Police Service on Feb. 5 for their alleged roles in a sexual assault as members of Team Canada’s 2018 World Junior Championship team. At that time, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman noted that all four were restricted free agents, and said: “They won’t be under contract after the season anyway,” as if to hint that the problem would go away. Right now, the Flyers, Flames and Devils are in limbo. If pressed, they are all unlikely to issue qualifying offers to retain the rights of these players. However, the judicial process has not yet begun, and all four have proclaimed their innocence through barristers and are owed due process. All four teams are hoping that the NHL will step in and take the issue out of their hands, which could allow the teams to retain their rights without the need for qualifying offers pending the judicial process and, of course, any potential league discipline that might follow.

Luke Kunin
Right Wing, San Jose Sharks
Age: 26
Stats: 77 GP, 11 G, 7 A, 18 Pts
Due: $3 million qualifying offer
Scoop: Two years ago, the Sharks traded John Leonard (now a Group VI UFA) and a third-round pick to take a shot on Kunin, the 2016 No. 15 overall pick. Kunin hasn’t delivered. He earned $3 million last season and hit double-digit goals, but didn’t crack 20 points. It was a tough season for everyone in San Jose. The Sharks could qualifying him and use him as a trade chip next season – they have plenty of cap space to do so. But if they do it, it’s likely because they’ll need him to hit the salary floor more so than that they believe in Kunin to produce at that level.

Jake Bean
Left Defense, Columbus Blue Jackets
Age: 25
Stats: 72 GP, 4 G, 9 A, 13 Pts
Due: $2.8 million qualifying offer
Scoop: Columbus has plenty of cap space and could certainly issue the QO for Bean. But it’s not adding up. At $2.8 million, that’s more than the going rate for a third-pair defenseman. Keeping him will gum up the works for young defenders David Jiricek, Denton Mateychuk and Corson Cuelemans. Plus, new Blue Jackets GM Don Waddell already traded Bean once (from Carolina to Columbus) so the writing appears to be on the wall.

Henry Jokiharju
Right Defense, Buffalo Sabres
Age: 25
Stats: 74 GP, 3 G, 17 A, 20 Pts
Due: $2.6 million qualifying offer
Scoop: There’s quite a logjam in front of Jokiharju, the undersized blueliner who gets pushed around a bit. Buffalo’s top four is filled out by Owen Power, Rasmus Dahlin, Bowen Byram and Mattias Samuelsson. Then there’s Connor Clifton and Jacob Bryson. It doesn’t make sense to flush Jokiharju for nothing if there is some slight value, so that could make him a trade target for a late-round pick.

RFAs with Risky Arbitration Cases

There is no shortage of intriguing restricted free agents (RFAs) with arbitration rights that will allow themselves to flex their muscles in negotiations with teams. Vancouver’s Filip Hronek, Boston’s Jeremy Swayman, Utah’s Sean Durzi and Colorado’s Casey Mittelstadt come to mind. They’re all going to be due significant raises.

But there is another crop of players lower in the lineup that teams may simply not be able (or not be willing) to afford:

Pavel Dorofeyev
Left Wing, Vegas Golden Knights
Age: 23
Stats: 47 GP, 13 G, 11 A, 24 Pts
RFA with Arbitration Rights
Contract Projection: 2 years x $1.53 million per AFP Analytics
Scoop: Dorofeyev has turned out to be one of the better Vegas draft picks, a third-round selection in 2019. This marked his first full NHL season. The problem is the Golden Knights have roughly $10 million in cap space, they need to sign at least two forwards, and they’re grinding to try to keep UFAs Jonathan Marchessault and maybe Chandler Stephenson. Vegas’ cap is structured between haves and have nots, big earners and league-minimum guys. Typically, there isn’t a ton of room usually for bottom six wingers who make double league minimum.

Sam Steel
Center, Dallas Stars
Age: 26
Stats: 77 GP, 9 G, 15 A, 24 Pts
RFA with Arbitration Rights
Contract Projection: 2 years x $1.81 million per AFP Analytics
Scoop: Steel reinvented himself in Dallas after he was not issued a qualifying offer by the Minnesota Wild last summer. He signed with the Stars for $16,000 below his QO with the Wild and bet on himself that with a strong team, he’d increase his value. He was correct. Steel held down the fourth-line center role for the best regular season team in the West. The Stars also have limited dollars to go around and they’ll have to make some difficult choices.

Eeli Tolvanen
Left Wing, Seattle Kraken
Age: 25
Stats: 81 GP, 16 G, 25 A, 41 Pts
RFA with Arbitration Rights
Contract Projection: 1 year x $3.2 million per AFP Analytics
Scoop: This is likely a non-issue as the Kraken find a way to work something out with Tolvanen. After all, he finished fourth on the Kraken in goals and fifth on the team in points, as he hit 16 goals for the second straight stint in Seattle. What is the long-term projection for Tolvanen? That’s why he should be on the radar. He strikes me as a Finnish version of Ryan Donato, a player with an elite shot who scored goals at the NHL level, who was also a Kraken expansion pick. After his 16-goal season in Seattle, he signed for $1.2 million, then walked in free agency the following year.

Group VI UFAs who Could Generate Interest

Group VI Unrestricted Free Agents are a select few players who otherwise are young enough to be RFAs, but haven’t received enough opportunity or playing time in an organization, and are granted an early shot at UFA by the Collective Bargaining Agreement. In order to qualify, a player must be 25 years of age or older with an expiring contract, must have played 80 or fewer NHL games, and accrued three or more professional seasons. Just because a player is trending toward Group VI UFA status does not necessarily mean he hits the open market on July 1, as he can always re-sign with his current club. Here are a few pending Group VI UFAs that may catch the eye of front offices:

Jiri Patera
Goaltender, Vegas Golden Knights
Age: 25
Stats: 6 GP, .893 Sv%

Ivan Prosvetov
Goaltender, Colorado Avalanche
Age: 25
Stats: 11 GP, .895 Sv%

Ben Meyers
Left Wing, Anaheim Ducks
Age: 25
Stats: 23 GP, 1 G, 3 Pts

Matthew Phillips
Right Wing, Washington Capitals
Age: 26
Stats: 30 GP, 1 G, 5 Pts

Jack Rathbone
Left Defense, Pittsburgh Penguins
Age: 25
Stats: No NHL GP in 2023-24

Contract data courtesy CapFriendly.com.

_____

NHL to decide whether teams must qualify charged Hockey Canada players

Players in Danger of Not Receiving Qualifying Offers

RFAs with Risky Arbitration Cases

Group VI UFAs who Could Generate Interest

Recently by Frank Seravalli