Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars: 2023 Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick

Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Vegas Golden Knights: 1^st in Pacific Division, 111 points
Seattle Kraken: 1st Western Conference Wild Card, 100 points

Schedule (ET)

Date	Game	Time
Friday, May 19	1. Dallas at Vegas	8:30 p.m. ET
Sunday, May 21	2. Dallas at Vegas	3 p.m. ET
Tuesday, May 23	3. Vegas at Dallas	8 p.m. ET
Thursday, May 25	4. Vegas at Dallas	8 p.m. ET
*Saturday, May 27	5. Dallas at Vegas	8 p.m. ET
*Monday, May 29	6. Vegas at Dallas	8 p.m. ET
*Wednesday, May 31	7. Dallas at Vegas	9 p.m. ET

The Skinny

The Vegas Golden Knights earned an extra night of rest after topping Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers in six games. The two teams swapped blowout wins in the first four games before the Golden Knights had two impressive performances to close things out. Vegas’ 4-3 win in Game 5 was the closest in the series, with four of the six outings seeing the winning team win by at least three goals. So it wasn’t the greatest series, but it showed that momentum could be a fickle trait in a playoff series at this point in the year.

For the Dallas Stars, it truly came down to the wire. It started with Seattle’s 5-4 overtime win in Game 1, a surprising victory for a team fresh off a seven-game series against Colorado, but it showed that the Stars needed to be much better. The Stars won consecutive games in Games 4 and 5 until Seattle staved off elimination in Game 6 to force a winner-takes-all final match. That’s where the Stars put an end to a late-game effort by the Kraken, earning a series win after taking down Minnesota earlier in the playoffs.

Head to Head

While there were a pair of one-goal games along the way, the Dallas Stars managed to go a perfect 3-0 over Vegas this year. It started with a 4-0 shutout in January, with the Stars winning in shootout in the next meeting in February. In the last meeting in April, the Stars again won in extra time, outscoring Vegas 9-3 overall in the season series.

For Vegas, no player had more than one point against the Stars. Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault both led the way with nine shots, but the offense definitely struggled to produce. For the Stars, Jamie Benn and Ty Dellandrea both had three points, while Joel Kiviranta was the only other player to record two against the Golden Knights.

Top Five Scorers

Dallas

Roope Hintz, 19 points
Jason Robertson, 12 points
Max Domi, 11 points
Joe Pavelski, 10 points
Jamie Benn, 10 points

Vegas

Jack Eichel, 14 points
Mark Stone, 12 points
Chandler Stephenson, 10 points
Jonathan Marchessault, 10 points
Ivan Barbashev, 9 points

X-Factor

Can the Golden Knights’ goaltending be the difference? Jake Oettinger has had his ups and downs, but when he’s good, he’s dominant. Vegas, meanwhile, have been forced to use their third- and fourth-stringers in Adin Hill and Laurent Brossoit, but both have been excellent. Jonathan Quick is also available while Logan Thompson is out with an injury. So, Vegas has shown the value of goaltending depth, just like they did during the 2017-18 regular season. But can this continue? Will the well finally dry out against a Dallas team that can score from anywhere in the lineup?

Both teams need their goaltenders to win a game here. With both teams having the capability of scoring at will, you can’t have a goalie allowing five and expect to win.

Offense

Unlike some other teams’ core players, Vegas’ top scorers actually showed up against Edmonton. Jack Eichel (nine points), Jonathan Marchessault (eight) and Mark Stone (four) combined for 21 points, while Ivan Barbashev (six points), Reilly Smith (five) and Nicolas Roy (four) all were big contributors as well. Eichel and Stone lead the team with 14 and 12 points respectively, with both sitting in the top 10 in playoff scoring overall. Marchesseault and Chandler Stephenson have both exceeded the double-digit mark in points, while Barbashev (nine), William Karlsson (eight) and Smith (eight) are all close. The offensive depth has been good too, with Brett Howden and Michael Amadio both having some good moments during the postseason.

Dallas’ strength is depth, featuring three good scoring lines and a hard-nosed checking trio. They also have the Conn Smythe favorite in Roope Hintz. He has nine goals and 19 points, just one behind Connor McDavid, but Hintz should pass that for the lead in short order. That’s seven points more than Jason Robertson, who didn’t score a single goal against the Kraken, surprisingly enough. Max Domi has been an excellent pickup at the trade deadline with 11 points, while Joe Pavelski still managed to hit double digits despite missing most of the first round. It helped that he scored four goals in his return in Game 1, that’s for sure. Jamie Benn’s resurgence season has continued in the playoffs with 10 points, while Tyler Seguin and Evgenii Dadonov both have nine points each as well. The secondary scoring from Mason Marchment and Wyatt Johnston has been crucial to make this a hazardous unit, more so than when the Stars made the Cup final in 2020.

According to Natural Stat Trick, the Vegas Golden Knights have a league-leading 66.67 goals-for percentage at 5-on-5, outscoring opponents 30-15. They’re actually a midpack team in most other categories, including power-play goals, but they’re mighty efficient and do an excellent job of shutting you down. The Stars, meanwhile, has the best power-play percentage of any team still around with 31.7, while sitting second behind Carolina with an 83.3 penalty-kill percentage. The edge goes to Dallas, but Vegas is no slouch offensively.

Defense

This is where Dallas really shines. The Stars have allowed the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes in the playoffs at 2.19. They also have the second-fewest high-danger chances allowed a 9.18. It helps to have a young star in Miro Heiskanen, who, along from playing heavy minutes and doing a great job of shutting things down, can also produce. He had 73 points in the regular season and nine assists in the playoffs to lead all Stars blueliners. Add in the veteran presence of Ryan Suter, Esa Lindell and Colin Miller, as well as the play of young studs Thomas Harley and Joel Hanley, and you can see how deep this blueline truly is.

For Vegas, they’re midpack with 28.42 shots against per game (eighth) but are fourth in high-danger shots against per 60 at 10.76. So they’re letting chances come, but they’re often low-danger. The issue? Dallas definitely has the advantage in this category. Vegas’ blueline is still quite deep, led by Alex Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez, with Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore making a solid second pairing. The Golden Knights’ defenders are quite aggressive, with Pietrangelo, Whitecloud and Hague all having double-digit penalty minutes. And that’s part of their identity: they get in your face.

The advantage will go to Dallas, but the margin is close. Dallas plays a more shutdown-oriented game, but both teams can use their blueline to generate scoring chances, too. Either way, this is the position where things get interesting.

Goaltending

On paper, the two goaltenders couldn’t be more different. Oettinger has been one of the best goaltenders in the league and is downright dominant in his first start after a loss. He was pulled twice against Seattle, which was uncharacteristic. But in most cases, there are few goalies that can outperform Oettinger. He he has a .901 save percentage and minus-4.16 goals saved above average in the playoffs, putting him near the bottom in both categories, but a couple of rough starts definitely skew those numbers, and the Game 7 win was more indicative of what he’s capable of. If Oettinger can re-channel that energy that nearly saw Dallas stun Calgary a year ago, they’ll be in great shape.

But then there’s Hill at the other end. He was acquired in late August of last year to help shore up a crease that was going to miss Robin Lehner. It was still Logan Thompson’s net, but Thompson’s injury has kept him out of the playoffs. Then, Laurent Brossoit went down with a lower-body injury in Game 3, forcing the team to turn to Hill instead of Jonathan Quick. Having to use Hill is not ideal, but he actually has a .947 save percentage and 2.92 GSAA in just five games. It’s not a huge sample size, but those are some big numbers for a goalie that has been thrown into some tough situations in these playoffs. He was huge in Vegas’ series win and will need to be again, but can you have belief in the team’s crease?

Now, if Thompson can return… wouldn’t that be something for Vegas? Would they move on from Hill in that case?

Injuries

Vegas’ injury situation is simple: three goalies and a forward that won’t likely ever play again. We already know Robin Lehner won’t play, but both Thompson and Brossoit could return. And then there’s Nolan Patrick, who, like Lehner, hasn’t skated this year and won’t be involved. So, really, the only missing piece from the playoffs is Brossoit. Otherwise, the team is quite healthy.

For Dallas, veteran defender Jani Hakanpaa is the only one out right now. He missed a couple of games in the second round with a lower-body injury, with his status unclear for Game 1. If he can return, the Stars will be in good shape.

Intangibles

In a sense, there’s a feeling of revenge for each club – but not toward each other (unless you’re Stars coach Pete DeBoer, fired by Vegas last year). Both teams have made underdog trips the Stanley Cup final over the past five years. But this time, both are among the top teams in the league, and both have extremely strong cases to win the title. For Vegas, it almost looked like a tear-down was needed after missing the postseason a year ago. They spent significant assets to bring in guys like Jack Eichel, only to fall short. Given the team’s position from the get-go – win at all costs – the dream run will eventually have to come to a close. So the Golden Knights know time isn’t on their side. If they’re going to win with this core, it has to happen soon.

For the Stars, it’s been an interesting road. They missed the playoffs after nearly going the distance in the bubble year. But since then, they’ve seen the emergence of their young core, led by Robertson, Heiskanen and Oettinger. They’ve quickly become one of the most exciting teams in the league, while sharing a similar shut-you-down identity it had in 2020.

So, if you’re looking for something, both teams are looking to do one step better than the last time they were in the Cup final. And that starts with winning this series.

Series Prediction

The Golden Knights showed they’re not afraid of anyone, staving off a team featuring two of the best players in the world. They had their flaws, and it could have gone either way, but beating McDavid and Draisaitl has to give a nice adrenaline kick.

But the Stars just look like a juggernaut. Even though they needed seven games against a pesky Kraken squad, they’ve got excellent talent at every position. They’re a deep group that many pegged to be a Stanley Cup contender heading into the playoffs, if not the best out of the West. It’s time to put up or shut up, and this series is going to go the wire.

Stars in seven games.

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