What kind of haul can the Calgary Flames for defenseman Noah Hanifin?

Credit: Noah Hanifin (© Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports)

With less than one month to go until the NHL’s March 8 trade deadline, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story every day until Deadline Day.

Today we continue our player profile series with Calgary Flames defenseman Noah Hanifin, who is the No. 1 ranked player on our Trade Targets board.

2024 Trade Deadline Countdown: 25 Days

NOAH HANIFIN
Left Defense, Calgary Flames
Shoots: Left
Age: 27
Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 215 lbs
Cap Hit: $4.95 million
Term: Pending UFA
2023-24 Stats: 53 GP, 9 G, 20 A, 29 Pts, 23:43 TOI
Career Stats: 9th season (Carolina, Calgary), 651 GP, 58 G, 210 A, 268 Pts
Best Year: 2021-22, 81 GP, 10 G, 38 A, 48 Pts, plus-27, 21:18 TOI
Playoffs: 3 appearances, 2 rounds won, 27 GP, 0 G, 8 A, 8 Pts

Archetype and Ideal Role

Puck Moving Defenseman, 1st Pair

Hanifin’s game has grown significantly since arriving in Calgary, blossoming into a solid No. 2 defenseman who skates well above average, transitions between offense and defense seamlessly, and can contribute to both special teams units. He is the premier rental defenseman available on the market.

Scouting Report

Three major attributes contribute to Hanifin’s success: skating, hockey intelligence and assertiveness. Hanifin is not afraid to possess the puck and he wields his legs and his high Hockey IQ to be a factor in all three zones on the ice.

One of the first things that stands out is Hanifin’s reads on when to join the rush are really well-timed. He regularly contributes as the fourth skater up the ice for the Flames and is involved in the play. If he’s carrying the puck up the ice himself, he doesn’t shy away and play on the perimeter, he attacks the net. He is in the 95th percentile among defensemen for shots on goal (100) this season. When set up in the offensive zone, he spots openings and makes his way to the net, whether it’s on the strong side or weak side.

Part of that is thinking, but part of that is also his ability to get there to make a play happen. According to NHL EDGE player and puck tracking data, Hanifin’s top speed of 22.8 mph this season is in the 81st percentile. Yes, he logs a lot of minutes (23:43) but Hanifin also covers ground in the 98th percentile in terms of distance skated in a game.

His wheels allow him to close poor gaps either by ‘surfing’ or shifting his weight while skating backwards. He recovers pucks at a very high rate among defensemen, particularly on dump-ins, which is a really valuable skill during pressure-packed playoff games. He is also 11th among all defensemen in generating takeaways per 60 minutes.

Hanifin’s passing in the neutral zone in transition is exceptionally accurate, making him one of the most consistent defensemen in the league in that category. His defensive play may not jump out the most, but he is also effective breaking up plays with his stick defensively. From a scheme perspective, Hanifin can adapt with a team that plays passively in the neutral zone, but any team that promotes surfing for their defensemen could tap into his skating even more so.

Buyer Beware

Hanifin makes plays in the offensive zone, but don’t expect him to work the blueline like Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes or Kris Letang. That isn’t his game, he just isn’t as fluid in that area, and it’s one reason why he may not be as effective on the power play. Though it’s important to point out that not every power play requires their quarterback to control all 85-feet in the width of the ice.

Hanifin also shouldn’t be confused as a physical defenseman. He ranks 125th among defensemen in hits. At times, he is viewed as someone who relies more on his skating to make an impact than his body, and he could probably use to get in a few more bumps when the situation applies.

Lastly, even though is passing in transition is elite, Hanifin has committed the 16th-most turnovers among defensemen per 60 minutes (with at least 35 games played). That isn’t necessarily a knock, part of that is just a byproduct of a defenseman who possesses the puck more than most.

Potential Suitors

Detroit Red Wings: Jake Walman has played well on the left side, but the Red Wings could use a boost on ‘D,’ and they’ve got the assets to trade for Hanifin, plus the cap space to sign him.
New Jersey Devils: Analytically and stylistically, Hanifin is a better version of Damon Severson. They could’ve just re-signed him. Luke Hughes is the left-shooting defenseman of their future, but Hanifin could help a lot now.
New York Islanders: Hanifin fits well for a team that needs a boost.
Tampa Bay Lightning: We know the Bolts are on the prowl for defensemen. They don’t really have the assets to acquire him. And could they even afford to re-sign him?
Toronto Maple Leafs: Hanifin and Chris Tanev in one package would make a lot of sense. And solve a lot of Toronto’s problems. Plus there is the familiarity with GM Brad Treliving. It’s a lot closer to home, but still in Canada, and there is belief that Hanifin has expressed interest in playing in a U.S. market.
Vegas Golden Knights: Yes, Shea Theodore runs the left side of Vegas’ defense, but Alec Martinez is coming off the books and a lot of his money could be allocated to Hanifin if the Golden Knights spend big again.

Comparable Trade Returns

March 19, 2022
To Boston: Hampus Lindholm, Kodie Curran
To Anaheim: 2022 1st Rd Pick (No. 22 overall), 2023 2nd Rd Pick, 2024 2nd Rd Pick, Urho Vaakanainen, John Moore

March 1, 2023
To Los Angeles: Vladislav Gavrikov, Joonas Korpisalo
To Columbus: 2023 1st Rd Pick (No. 22 overall), 2024 3rd Rd Pick, Jonathan Quick

For the Flames, there’s probably no more perfect trade comp planet than Hampus Lindholm going to Beantown in 2022. And it’s not because Hanifin is from Boston. It’s really because Lindholm and Hanifin are so comparable stylistically, and they were the same age then and now, and they both have the same pedigree as No. 5 and No. 6 overall picks in their draft years. They also have relatively the same cap hit ($4.95 vs. $5.2 million). In fact, if you were to poll GMs which defenseman they’d prefer – either Lindholm or Hanifin – their opinions would likely be split.

There’s no question the Ducks did well in the trade, and the Bruins probably are pretty satisfied as well. Lindholm led the league in plus/minus last year (plus-49) and finished fourth in Norris Trophy voting as the Bruins set NHL records for wins and points in a season. Part of the reason why the return was so good was because the Bruins were essentially assured they would be able to extend Lindholm, which happened hours after the trade, when they signed him to an eight-year, $52 million deal.

It’s likely that the team acquiring Hanifin will also seek to extend him, even if not part of the deal. It’s not all that often that top pair defensemen become available. We also now have some insight as to what that will cost, as it’s believed the Flames and Hanifin were close to signing an eight-year, $60 million deal, with a cap hit of $7.5 million, earlier this season. Hanifin got cold feet. That Lindholm contract looks even better by comparison, even if it’s a couple years old by now.

Here’s the thing: The market of teams who have the assets required, the need on their blue line, and the contender status to take a big swing on Hanifin is admitted limited.

If that market does not develop, the Flames may have to check down to a first-round pick and a prospect. On the low end of the trade comp scale, the Flames have the Gavrikov deal, which boils down to a lone first-round pick with the third being for Korpisalo and Quick making the money work. But Hanifin is more impactful than Gavrikov.

Summary

Hanifin is a first pair, minute-chewing defenseman who skates well, can play in any situation, and has matured into a player who is comfortable being himself. He is eminently capable of helping a contending team load up for a Stanley Cup run – and to play another 650 NHL games after that.

Daily Faceoff analyst Jon Goyens contributed to this report. Find him on Twitter: @gourmet_hockey

_____

Discover Betano.ca – a premium Sports Betting and Online Casino experience. Offering numerous unique and dynamic betting options along with diverse digital and live casino games, Betano is where The Game Starts Now. 19+. Please play responsibly.