Will Flames’ Elias Lindholm turn a Stanley Cup contender into a frontrunner?
With less than two months remaining until the NHL’s trade deadline on March 8, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story every day until Deadline Day.
Today we’re going to kick off our player profile series with Calgary Flames center Elias Lindholm, who is No. 1 on our Trade Targets board.
2024 Trade Deadline Countdown: 51 Days
ELIAS LINDHOLM
Center, Calgary Flames
Shoots: Right
Age: 29
Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 202 lbs
Cap Hit: $4.85 million
Term: Pending UFA
2023-24 Stats: 44 GP, 8 G, 21 A, 29 Pts, 20:45 TOI
Career Stats: 11th season (Carolina, Calgary), 787 GP, 211 G, 331 A, 542 Pts
Best Year: 2021-22, 82 GP, 42 G, 40 A, 82 Pts, plus-61
Playoffs: 3 appearances, 2 rounds won, 27 GP, 8 G, 9 A, 17 Pts
Archetype and Ideal Role
Second Line Center, Elite Support Player
Lindholm is two seasons removed from being voted a runner-up for the Selke Trophy, a distinction he won’t achieve again this year. He won’t drive play, but he plays best with high-end producers and everyone around him benefits from his high Hockey IQ. Lindholm contributes in all situations, on both special teams, and can impact the game in a number of different ways.
Scouting Report
Lindholm oozes calm and composure with the puck, which is an important trait to have when it comes to competing in the Stanley Cup playoffs. In the offensive zone, he is pass first – looking to dish it off before shooting. He plays in and around the net with a sneaky approach, adept at finding soft areas of the ice away from coverage. Though he doesn’t shoot enough, Lindholm does have a deceptive snap shot when in stride.
Lindholm is a faceoff savant, able to win key draws in clutch moments. He has the second-best overall faceoff win percentage for all right-shooting centers with 600-plus draws taken. Only one player has taken more draws this season: Sidney Crosby.
Lindholm is a good skater, although he won’t blow anyone away with straight line speed. He thinks the game at a higher level than to just fly around all over the place, his approach is deliberate – using his anticipation wisely at both ends. He adapts well tracking back in the defensive zone, helps eliminate plays and adequately pushes the rush to the outside. Among forwards at even-strength in the defensive zone, he ranks 11th in breaking up plays, 13th in stick checks, 10th in blocked shots and 10th in breaking up entries. Lindholm’s anticipation is elite, he doesn’t cheat and he is safe, reliable and predictable.
Buyer Beware
The biggest concern with Lindholm is his steep drop in production over these last two seasons. He is currently on track for 54 points, which would be his lowest over a full season since 2017-18 in Carolina. He was traded that following summer to Calgary.
The tougher part to isolate: How much of that is on Lindholm and a contract year potentially wearing on him? Or how much of that declining production is attributable to the fact that he hasn’t quite been the same since Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk left?
In 2021-22, when he racked up a career year with 42 goals and 82 points, a staggering 66 percent of Lindholm’s shots came from the slot. Last year, it dropped to 45 percent, and this year it is down to 37 percent.
That’s means his slots from the shot have been cut in half in two years. Not surprisingly, that has led to a precipitous drop in shooting percentage, down 11 points in two years: from 18 percent to 12 to seven this year.
Potential Suitors
- Boston Bruins: Still looking to fill the void from Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. Short on assets.
- Colorado Avalanche: Ryan Johansen isn’t cutting it. If Avs also get Valeri Nichushkin and Gabriel Landeskog back? Look out.
- Vancouver Canucks: They’re on the prowl for a top six forward, but a complementary center would make a ton of sense.
- Vegas Golden Knights: If Jack Eichel is out until the playoffs, they’d have cap money to play with and a need at center. Vegas seems to have a connection with big name players represented by Newport Sports.
- Winnipeg Jets: The Jets have played their way into contender status – and Lindholm would boost an already stout defensive team. They could also probably afford to re-sign him.
Comparable Trade Returns
Feb. 17, 2023
To Toronto: Ryan O’Reilly (75% retained), Noel Acciari
To St. Louis/Minnesota: 2023 1st Rd Pick (No. 25 overall), 2024 2nd Rd Pick, 2023 3rd Rd Pick, 2025 4th Rd Pick, Adam Gaudette, Mikhail Abramov
Jan. 30, 2023
To NY Islanders: Bo Horvat (25% retained)
To Vancouver: 2023 1st Rd Pick (No. 17 overall), Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty
Both of these trades last season, for impact centers on expiring deals, provide a blueprint for Calgary GM Craig Conroy to execute.
O’Reilly was a few years older then than Lindholm is now. He was also injured last season (broken finger) and his production had dropped, along with his footspeed, leading some to question how big of an impact he’d have for an acquiring team. O’Reilly’s return was pumped up by the fact that not only was he a Cup winner, but a Conn Smythe winner, as well as a Selke winner and multi-time finalist. Like Lindholm, O’Reilly impacts the game in more ways than just point production, and they’ve shared some of the same peaks and valleys in their careers. Lindholm has achieved higher-end numbers than O’Reilly. And he’s younger. He doesn’t have the trophy case or the accolades, but you could make the case Lindholm is better now than O’Reilly was at the time of the trade last season.
It’s also important to break down the return. That fourth-round pick was to Minnesota as a third-party broker to launder an additional 25 percent of cap money. The third-round pick was likely for Acciari. And the (late) first and second were for O’Reilly.
On the flip side, the Canucks got a significantly higher (mid) first-round pick from the Islanders, who barely squeaked into the playoffs. They also got a strong prospect in Raty, whom they like, and a former 20-goal scorer in Beauvillier whom they hoped to rehab. (Vancouver later flipped that first to Detroit for Filip Hronek and the Red Wings selected Axel Sandin-Pellikka.) At the time of the trade, Horvat was having an all-world season with 29 goals and 54 points in 49 games.
The Islanders quickly worked out an eight-year, $68 million extension with Horvat, a contract comparable that is probably not all that far off from where Lindholm would like to land with his next team – whether it’s this season or on the free agent market this summer.
Summary
We’ve seen enough now to know Lindholm isn’t going to do it on his own. He needs elite offensive linemates in order to pile up points, but he also has the defensive makeup to shut down opponents. Lindholm isn’t going to transform a strong team into a Cup contender, but he could help make a Cup contender into a favorite.
Daily Faceoff analyst Jon Goyens contributed to this report. Find him on Twitter: @gourmet_hockey
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