What would a major offseason roster overhaul look like for Toronto Maple Leafs?

Toronto Maple Leafs' Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly

Credit: Jan 6, 2024; San Jose, California, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly (44) and Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitchell Marner (16) celebrate after the goal against the San Jose Sharks during the first period at SAP Center at San Jose. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

The mission statement is clear for the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 2024 offseason. Team president Brendan Shanahan laid it out last week when he claimed “everything is on the table” for his club following its seventh first-round playoff defeat in eight seasons of the Auston Matthews/Mitch Marner era.

Well, clear as mud. The Leafs obviously plan to make major changes and already set that tone by firing coach Sheldon Keefe last week. But it’s not like they’ll be fielding offers for Matthews. He’s not going anywhere. The core appears poised to break up, but for the first time during the Shanaplan Years, there appears to be a “core within the core” emerging.

So who are Toronto’s actual untouchables? Which core members might soon become ex-core members, traded in blockbusters? Which UFAs may stay and which may go?

Here’s a preview of what to expect from the group that bowed out to the Boston Bruins in seven games.

UNTOUCHABLE

Auston Matthews
William Nylander
Matthew Knies
Easton Cowan

We don’t need to spill much ink on Matthews and Nylander. Their fresh extensions kick in starting in 2024-25, Matthews for four years at $13.25 million per, Nylander for eight years at $11.5 million per. They are the team’s two leading scorers and both showed up more than more than their peers, Nylander in particular, during the playoffs despite the fact both were dealing with health problems.

Knies was merely decent in his first full NHL regular season; it was understandable to see him plateau while playing by far the longest schedule of his career after leaving the NCAA last year. But he proved during the playoffs to have that Dawg factor the Leafs covet so badly, shedding checkers and winning battles with his strength and scoring the overtime winner in Game 5. The Leafs should want to clone Knies, not trade him. He’s a key part of their future.

Same goes for Cowan, who won the 2023-24 Red Tilson Trophy as OHL player of the year. He grew up idolizing former London Knight turned future teammate Mitch Marner, but Cowan plays with more of a fire in his belly. As the Leafs’ salary structure becomes even more top heavy, they’ll need difference makers on entry-level AAVs. Cowan can be one. He’s no lock to make the club in 2024-25, but it wouldn’t be remotely surprising if he got a nine-game look.

SAFE

Joseph Woll
Bobby McMann
David Kampf
Jake McCabe
Simon Benoit
Fraser Minten
John Tavares

Based on age, contract and/or all-around contributions, we can expect to see these guys back in blue and white this fall. Woll has looked the part of star No. 1 goalie whenever he’s gotten an extended look. He posted a scintillating .964 save percentage in the playoffs. His inability to stay healthy is a real problem, though, to the point GM Brad Treliving specifically mentioned the need to evaluate Woll’s offseason training. Still, with another season left at a cap hit south of $800,000, he’s far more solution than problem and simply needs to be insulated with a veteran tandem partner. Someone in the tier of UFA Laurent Brossoit, for instance, would make a lot of sense.

Big winger McMann broke out for 15 goals this season and earned himself a two-year extension at $1.35 million per. He sat out the playoffs with a knee injury. His depth scoring and penalty killing contributions were missed. The Leafs are quite happy with big blueliners Benoit and McCabe. Benoit has already signed a three-year extension at $1.35 million per year, while the Leafs brass is reportedly very high on McCabe, who is a 2025 UFA and is eligible to sign an extension July 1.

The Kampf contract was arguably a mistake – you don’t re-sign Kampf, you find the next Kampf for cheaper – but he’s had his moments in the past two postseasons as a big defensive-zone faceoff specialist who makes the occasional contribution on offense. As for Minten: he’s another important prospect at forward, albeit not with the upside of Cowan. If Treliving was going big-game hunting on the offseason trade market and had to cough up a promising youngster, Minten would be easier to pry away than Cowan.

Tavares absolutely wants to remain a Leaf. It was his dream to become one and he relishes every part of the experience, the good and the bad. He made that very clear when speaking to us during the players’ season-ending availability last week. He’s unlikely to waive his no-movement clause. If Toronto makes it clear it won’t be re-signing him next year unless he takes a hometown discount, would he consider accepting a trade to go elsewhere, with the Leafs eating half his $11 million cap hit? The guess here is Tavares remains a Leaf next season. He wants to be here with his family. You can also forget a buyout: the way his deal is structured, it would only save the Leafs $606,666 next season.

BLOCKBUSTER TRADE OPTIONS

Mitch Marner
Morgan Rielly

The fate of these two will truly define Toronto’s offseason. Marner has a full no-movement clause and thus controls his destiny. But if the Leafs make it clear they don’t want to extend his contract once he becomes eligible this July, perhaps both parties agree to move on from each other and Marner’s camp helps facilitate a trade. Don’t believe the perception that the Leafs’ have no leverage. It’s the opposite: they don’t have to trade Marner at all. He’s an all-star forward who has not formally requested to be moved. They can hold out for a blockbuster offer of, say, a top-six forward, high-end prospect and first-round pick. If they don’t get it, they can ride with Marner another year.

Rielly, the longest tenured Leaf, has a deep emotional attachment to the team and its core. He hasn’t been a scapegoat, and he was pretty darn good during the 2022-23 playoffs, but he simply isn’t an all-situations horse who can shut down the other team’s best players. That said, while he isn’t an alpha No. 1 blueliner, he also isn’t paid as one. At $7.5 million, he’s merely the 23^rd– richest defenseman in the league. He has a full no-movement clause and is under contract six more seasons. Unlike Marner and Tavares, Rielly didn’t grow up in this market. He’s a Western Canadian. Is there a chance he’d be willing to waive in the event of a trade simply for a fresh start for the second half of his career?

STUCK WITH ’EM

Calle Jarnkrok
Ryan Reaves

Jarnkrok was a favorite of Keefe, earning various plum deployments to fill injury gaps, be it first-unit power play duty or the odd stint as a top-six forward. He’s a coachable player who does many things well fundamentally, but he has scored 10 goals in his past 69 games in a Leaf jersey, including the playoffs dating back to last year, and he’ll be 33 when next season begins. He’s not an albatross at $2.1 million for the next two seasons, but he’s not earning his keep at this point either. A buyout would reduce his cap hit to $1.58 million for the next two seasons; probably not enough savings there to be worth it.

As for Reaves: signing him for three years was always going to produce this problem. He’s a fan favorite, a dressing room cheerleader, a momentum changer on occasion with his heavy hits and fighting skill, but…more often than not, he’s a liability. The Leafs generated 31.97 percent of the expected goals with him on the ice at 5-on-5 in the playoffs. It’s worth noting that Reaves’ contract structure does not make it subject to 35+ rules and thus can be bought out. Doing so would save $900,000 in cap space for the first two seasons of the buyout, for what it’s worth.

INEXPENSIVE DEPTH

Connor Dewar
Pontus Holmberg
Noah Gregor
Conor Timmins

There’s nothing offensive about keeping any of these players or moving on from them. Dewar showed flashes on the penalty kill with his tremendous skating. Gregor provided occasional spurts of energy with his speed and size in a checking role. Both are restricted free agents. Holmberg and Timmins are under contract for another season apiece at cap hits of $800,000 and $1.1 million, respectively. They don’t move the needle one way or another in their depth roles.

UFAs WITH CLOUDY FUTURES

Max Domi
Tyler Bertuzzi
Joel Edmundson
Ilya Lyubushkin
Martin Jones

There’s a conceivable scenario in which any of these players re-signs with the Leafs. Domi has been open about the fact he loved every minute of his first season in Toronto, fulfilling a childhood wish, and is clearly interested in returning. Bertuzzi gradually found a fit in Toronto as well but is already coming off a one-year “prove it” contract and might be seeking more term on the most important payday of his career at 29 years old. Edmundson, the only 2023-24 Leaf who had a Stanley Cup ring, was arguably their most poised defenseman in the playoffs. Lyubushkin held his own on a pairing with Rielly; the Leafs quietly outscored the Bruins 6-1 at 5-on-5 with Lyubushkin on the ice in the postseason.

As for Jones: he did pretty much exactly what Toronto hoped he would: fill in admirably during a key stretch when health or poor play compromised their duo of Ilya Samsonov and Woll. You could do worse than bring Jones back as your No. 3 again.

TRADE BAIT

Nick Robertson
Timothy Liljegren

Robertson and Liljegren are both RFAs and both will seek raises. They’ve graduated from top prospect status to full-time NHLers, but the moment has overwhelmed them in high-stakes games at times, and Keefe seemed reluctant to trust either of them in crucial moments. Robertson is 22 and Liljegren is 25. They both have shown enough flashes of skill that they still have some trade value if worked into a larger package. One could argue Toronto needs Robertson’s scoring as a depth winger and Liljegren’s mobility as a right-shot blueliner, but if both have not proven reliable when it comes to winning wars of attrition in the playoffs, could it be time to move on?

GONE

Ilya Samsonov
Mark Giordano
T.J. Brodie
Matt Murray
John Klingberg

Samsonov is clearly a talented athlete, but the space between his ears has failed him one too many times during his tenure between Toronto’s pipes. Treliving passed up any opportunity to name him as a piece of the Leafs’ net last week during management’s season-ending presser. It simply makes little sense to bring back a netminder with a penchant for allowing backbreaking goals.

Giordano, 40, didn’t see game action in the playoffs and seems all but certain to retire after a long and successful career that included a Norris Trophy at 35 years old. As for Brodie: to go from a key top-four blueliner at $5 million to healthy scratched for all but one playoff game means it’s time for a divorce. Murray and Klingberg will soon board their dinghy and row away from Robidas Island. Happy trails.

_____

Hey, hockey heads! Get ready for The Daily Faceoff Playoff Parlay Challenge! Each game day, answer four playoff prediction questions like who will win the first game, will points be over or under or what will be the highest-scoring period? Daily winners snag gift cards, while each round’s champs pocket cash! Play now at games.dailyfaceoff.com and prove your puck prowess! It’s fast, it’s fun, and it’s all about hockey! Let’s go!