Five restricted free agents with a lot to gain in 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Credit: Apr 24, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman (1) makes a save during warm-up of game three of the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to NHL restricted free agents securing their next contracts, the regular season carries more weight in establishing the money and term, obviously. But the playoffs can impact RFAs’ fates in multiple ways. They can help a good young player assert himself as a great young player, indispensable to his team’s core. The playoffs can also serve as a final proving ground for an underachieving player struggling to prove his worth.

So which RFAs have the most on the line in these playoffs? It’s not as easy as naming exciting youngsters such as Seth Jarvis, Quinton Byfield or Thomas Harley. Each of those players broke out this season to the point he has already earned a major payday. Which RFAs truly have something to gain depending on their playoff performances? Consider these five.

Kaapo Kakko, New York Rangers

Alexis Lafreniere, selected first overall by the Rangers in 2020, finally busted out this season. Kakko, taken second overall a year prior, hasn’t found it yet. He took a major step back from his 2022-23 scoring and actually averaged the fewest minutes of his career this season, his fifth in the NHL. Kakko doesn’t look like he’s ever going to break through as a top-six forward in New York. He’s also barely been effective enough for his trade value to pop. If he wants to attract a team that will give him a proper chance, he’ll need to find a way to make his minutes matter, which is hard to do when you’re playing on the third line and second power-play unit. He did score a goal in Round 1 against the Washington Capitals.

Anton Lundell, Florida Panthers

Lundell looked like a legitimate franchise building block in his rookie year, during which he finished sixth in the Calder Trophy vote. But ‘Baby Barkov’ hasn’t grown on the offensive side of the puck and found himself playing in the Panthers’ bottom six for much of this season. Until now, that is. With Sam Bennett suffering an injury in Round 1, Lundell has been asked to step up as Florida’s No. 2 center, playing with Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk. Lundell closed out the Panthers’ Round 1 victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning with a four-game point streak. Wrapping up his entry-level contract, Lundell was trending toward a short-term bridge deal, but more possibilities could open up if he proves himself as a key top-six cog on a long playoff run.

Casey Mittelstadt, Colorado Avalanche

Acquiring Mittelstadt from the Buffalo Sabres for Bowen Byram at the trade deadline made sense for the Avs. They’d been chasing a No. 2 center since Nazem Kadri and J.T. Compher left, and Mittelstadt, 25, has the raw playmaking upside to establish himself in that role long-term. While his surface offensive numbers appeared middling in 18 regular-season games post-trade, the ice tilted heavily in Colorado’s favor with him out there. They were outscored 14-13 yet outchanced their opponents 136-94 with Mittelstadt on the ice at 5-on-5, a stark difference from their play-driving numbers when previous No. 2 center Ryan Johansen was out there. So far in the postseason, he’s getting rewarded, looking like a dangerous playmaker. He has a goal and five points through four games vs the Winnipeg Jets, and the Avs control a whopping 72 percent of the expected goals with him out there. They’ve almost doubled Winnipeg in scoring chances with Mittelstadt on the ice. It appears Colorado has found its long-term No. 2 center, but his sample size with the team remains relatively small. If he can look the part for multiple playoff rounds, he’s going to fill up his wallet on his next contract extension.

Martin Necas, Carolina Hurricanes

Note the inclusion of Necas rather than Jarvis here. Jarvis’ progression has been more linear; even last year, when his numbers didn’t pop, he was pretty much the unluckiest shooter in the league, so this year’s breakout was easy to predict. He’s locked in as one of Carolina’s scoring-line right wingers. Necas is a part of the Canes’ core, no doubt, but his offensive production has fluctuated quite a bit. His points per game across his five full NHL seasons: 0.56, 0.77, 0.51, 0.87, 0.69. He actually showed the highest expected goals per 60 of his career at 5-on-5 this season, so there’s every reason to believe he can still be a key top-six forward for the Canes, but Necas has been woefully underproductive in the postseason so far in his career. He entered the 2023-24 playoffs with seven goals and 21 points across 48 career contests. It’s a good sign to see him producing a point per game so far in Round 1 despite playing on the third line at the moment.

He’s arbitration eligible as he wraps up a two-year bridge deal with a $3 million AAV. Necas indicated during the winter that he and the Canes hadn’t discussed his next contract at all. If he can be a key cog during a deep playoff run, it might increase the odds of him scoring a long-term deal.

Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins

What’s on the line for Swayman given the fact he already played well enough to make the All-Star Game this season? Kind of a lot, actually. Remember what he said upon learning of his selection to the midseason classic? Here’s a refresher:

“After dealing with what I did this summer with arbitration, hearing things that a player should never hear, it feels pretty special to be in this situation.”

The arbitration process last year, which culminated in a one-year award of $3.475 million, was clearly a nasty one for Swayman and sent him into the 2023-24 campaign with a pretty large chip on his shoulder. Not only did he prove himself this regular season, setting career highs in starts (43), wins (25) and goals saved above average (16.4), but he has outplayed his tandem mate and bestie Linus Ullmark so far in the playoffs. Going 3-0-0 with a .956 save percentage so far against the Toronto Maple Leafs, Swayman has been so good that he’s forced coach Jim Montgomery to break the even rotation between his two netminders. Considering Ullmark enters the final season of his contract next and reportedly nixed a trade-deadline deal this past winter, it would be a significant development if Swayman distances himself from Ullmark and becomes the Bruins’ clear No. 1 goalie during these playoffs. If the Bruins decide it’s time to trade Ullmark, who will have a 15-team no trade list next season, for help elsewhere, it only strengthens Swayman’s case for a lucrative long-term deal.

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