What’s the deal with top 2023 NHL Draft prospect Matvei Michkov?

Credit: KHL

It wasn’t that long ago that scouts were starting to wonder if Matvei Michkov was going to overtake Connor Bedard as the top prospect for the 2023 NHL Draft.

Bedard had all the hype, but Michkov continued to keep things interesting. He obliterated his own age group. He made older players look stupid. There was no stopping Michkov wherever he played. The talent he displayed, the smarts with the puck, everything. He was as close to a perfect prospect coming up the ranks ever since he first showed up on the scene in 2018.

And now? The talent is still abundantly clear. But there are more questions than answers regarding Michkov’s hockey future.

We have a Scooby-Doo mystery on our hands, ladies and gentlemen.

From signing a long-term deal to stay in Russia, to the mysterious death of his father, plus the obvious concern with everything going on with Russia and the war in Ukraine, nothing has come easy regarding Michkov’s status this year. Add in the lack of international action due to Russia’s ban from IIHF competition and other nations’ unwillingness to invite them to non-IIHF tournaments, and it’s such a difficult situation.

Let’s start with the positives. From a skillset perspective, think Nikita Kucherov. Simply put, Michkov would be a No. 1 in many other drafts. That’s because of his incredible ability to make decisions at a breakneck pace and execute them with little to no difficulty. Michkov’s hands are nearly untouched in terms of raw talent – there’s no shortage of lacrosse goal highlights.

That creativity, and pure, raw talent, were especially evident down the stretch. After he missed the start of the season with an injury and was unable to produce anything with SKA St. Petersburg, the club loaned him out to the bottom-feeding HK Sochi to get immediate ice time. It worked.

Sochi had just five wins before Michkov joined for the final 27 games. He recorded 20 points – 10 fewer than team leader Artur Tyanulin in 28 fewer games. For context, no draft-eligible player has put up better than Michkov’s 0.67 points-per-game average in either the KHL or the RSL that preceded it. Michkov finished with a five-point night to close the season and had 11 points in the final 10 games for a team that offered him little offensive support. After years of dominating junior hockey, he finally showed that talent in one of the top pro leagues in Europe.

“The way he creates plays, executes them and dazzles… there’s very few like him,” a scout said. “The puck just comes to him and he knows what to do with it. He’s a magician masquerading as a hockey player.”

Michkov’s biggest improvement this season came in the playmaking department. It’s not like he could have really taken his puck game further – he has one of the hardest releases in the class. But there were times, at least internationally, you could tell he’d try to do everything himself and not use his linemates enough. That criticism seemed to be across the board, no matter the scout’s opinion.

“He’s as close to Bedard as anyone just based on pure talent and scoring ability,” a scout said. “He finds ways to blow your mind every game.”

Nobody whatsoever will doubt Michkov’s skill. The upside is so high. The on-ice flaws are minuscule.

So, what’s the issue?

“We have absolutely no idea if he’ll ever actually come over,” an NHL scout said. “I don’t think any teams do.”

Remember Evgeni Malkin’s contract dispute nearly 20 years ago? After getting drafted second overall by the Penguins in 2004, a transfer dispute between the NHL and the IIHF at the time meant Malkin wasn’t able to leave Metallurg Magnitogorsk, a Russian Super League team. From confiscated passports to very public squabbling by both sides, Malkin wasn’t able to come over until 2006. And even then, the drama didn’t end, with the Metallurg filing an antitrust lawsuit against the NHL and Penguins after Malkin played his first NHL game.

It was an ugly situation at the time, and getting Michkov over will have its own issues. As it stands, Michkov has a deal to play in SKA St. Petersburg until 2026. It’s not entirely impossible to get out of it – the Capitals managed to get Ivan Miroshnichenko out of his KHL deal to sign an ELC – but it seems unlikely that’ll be the case with Michkov. If you’re St. Petersburg, you don’t want your star prospect going anywhere.

A lot of NHL teams either lessened their Russian scouting core, stopped sending crossover scouts or just pulled everyone out of Russia altogether following the start of the conflict between the country and Ukraine. So a lot of the looks teams had on Michkov were through video, which doesn’t give you the same frame of reference.

Usually, Russia would be a major threat in any major international competition. For the past two years, scouts were robbed of seeing Michkov compete against the world’s top talents. We already know how he stacks up locally – some believe Michkov is the best Russian prospect since Malkin or Alex Ovechkin, and it’s hard to argue against that.

We saw Michkov go up against Shane Wright, Connor Bedard and Co. at the 2021 U-18 World Championship. Canada cruised on to win gold, but with a tournament-leading 12 goals and 16 points, Michkov was the best player, bar none. He was also the best player at the 2020 Youth Olympic Games and the 2021 Hlinka Gretzky Cup, playing against some of the top prospects in the 2023 draft class each time. Michkov’s junior international tournament notebook was closed shut last year, which is a huge shame. But the material we saw was simply unbelievable.

Some in the game think scouts and GMs have been sharing fabricated stories about Michkov behind the scenes to try and get teams to stay away, only to draft Michkov themselves. It’s always hard to get a read on what’s real and what’s not. But I can tell you that every team near the top of draft order are doing their due diligence as best they can. Nobody wants to be the general manager that passed on a future superstar, right? He’s worth trading up for if you have time on your side.

It’s noteworthy that Michkov is not listed as a participant at the NHL Draft combine in Buffalo this weekend. That’s typically the best opportunity for teams to get to know a prospect, so a layer of mystery will still be present heading into the draft in Nashville later this month. Michkov will be in person at Bridgestone Arena for that.

If Michkov does indeed come over once his KHL deal is over, and I do believe he will, he has the potential to be a franchise-changer. That’s precisely what Kirill Kaprizov did for Minnesota, arriving at a time when the Wild needed a superstar.

But there’s an obvious risk from the onset here. Again, every team should be looking at Michkov, but who’ll pull the trigger? The San Jose Sharks are still a long way from competing, and he could be a fit there. The Montreal Canadiens have a solid prospect pool and might be willing to wait. With all the uncertainty in Arizona, could they take a flier? What about the Flyers, who are in the midst of selling off assets right now? Or Washington, who has had some tremendous success out of Russia?

Unfortunately, we don’t have much more clarity now than when the KHL season kicked off late last summer. But the main sentiment remains: Michkov is one hell of a hockey player. And if you’re willing to roll the dice, the payoff might be extraordinary.

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What’s the deal with top 2023 NHL Draft prospect Matvei Michkov?

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