Which supposed Stanley Cup contender(s) are we most worried about?

Credit: Jan 14, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander (88) and forward Mitch Marner (16) talk during a break in the action against the Dallas Stars during the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

We’re not quite in the stretch run of the NHL season yet, but we’re past the halfway point and will soon see the true Stanley Cup contenders pull away from the also-rans.

Looking only at teams occupying playoff spots right now: Which supposed Stanley Cup contender is worrying you the most?

MATT LARKIN: The Boston Bruins technically hold a playoff spot, but they’re a hard team to take seriously this season, which makes them too easy of a pick. I’m growing quite concerned about the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have looked exposed of late facing a difficult slate of opponents. Their power play continues to underachieve, their offensive play driving is the weakest it’s been for the entire Auston Matthews / Mitch Marner era, and Matthews is apparently going to play through an injury for this entire season. I think people underestimated the degree to which goaltender Anthony Stolarz was masking Toronto’s weaknesses before he got hurt. General manager Brad Treliving has some work to do before the Trade Deadline. By the way, I wrote this paragraph before John Tavares landed on injured reserve. Gulp.

STEVEN ELLIS: I’m going with the Carolina Hurricanes. They have primarily been a dominant team at home, sitting near the top of the league in victories. But they’ve had a losing record on the road for most of the year, with fewer wins than many non-playoff contenders. Add in the fact that Frederik Andersen has missed most of the season, Pyotr Kochetkov has been just fine and some iffy performances from an array of backups and it feels like this team is going to be in a tough spot come playoff time. At the very least, they need another skilled forward to push the needle offensively. I think the Canes can be a contender, but they need some help.

PAUL PIDUTTI: I’m starting to get very worried about the Minnesota Wild. Few teams can handle their best player — in this case Kirill Kaprizov — missing 10-plus games in a row. But there are some troubling signs either way. For the season, the Wild’s goal differential is well behind the other top contenders’, suggesting they haven’t been nearly as dominant as their record indicates. Both Dallas and Colorado have closed the gap in the standings, which could lead to a more challenging playoff path if they slide into Wildcard territory. But most concerning has been the Wild’s results against top teams. Since early December, they’ve lost in regulation to Los Angeles (4-1), Edmonton (twice, 7-1 and 5-3), Vegas (twice, 3-2 and 4-1), Florida (6-1), Winnipeg (5-0), and Colorado (6-1). There are a lot of blowouts in there. Incredibly, since Nov. 21, they have beaten one playoff team in regulation — Carolina a couple of weekends ago. That’s in eight weeks of hockey! Minnesota’s 5-on-5 metrics are cratering, Filip Gustavsson is showing serious signs of fatigue, and Kaprizov has no set timetable to return. They’ve got time to recover, but it’s quietly been a very ugly stretch for the Wild.

SCOTT MAXWELL: This should come as no surprise for anyone that follows our power rankings, but for me, it’s the Winnipeg Jets. It’s not that they’re playing really badly, but they just aren’t as good as their results would lead you to believe, and outside of the play of Connor Hellebuyck, they don’t really have an aspect of their game that stands out to me like on other Cup contenders. Some might point to their depth scoring, but that’s because they’re shooting 12.45% on the year (the third highest in the league), despite only generating 3.16 expected goals per 60 minutes at all strengths, which is only tied for 13th in the league. Their defense has been given praise, but that’s mostly been propped up by Hellebuyck’s otherworldly performance this season, as the Jets are tied for 17th in expected goals against per 60, which also sits at 3.08. They just aren’t all that strong at either end of the ice despite the results we’ve seen so far. I wrote a piece a couple years ago about Presidents’ Trophy winning teams struggling in the playoffs, and it’s because they rarely are the actual best team, and they just happen to use up their luck in the regular season and regress in the playoffs. Under the hood, the Jets have proven to be a lower-end playoff team playing way above their heads, and considering the fact that previous seasons have seen them have strong starts, tail off in the final months and lose in the playoffs in five games, all the signs point to them being first-round fodder again unless they make some improvements, especially if they lose out on that first seed in the West and have to play one of the Minnesota Wild, Colorado Avalanche, or Dallas Stars in the first round.

ANTHONY DI MARCO: For me it’s the Dallas Stars. Yes, the Stars have kept pace for the most part this season in the Central division, but I don’t see a team with enough high end talent to be a true Cup contender. We’ve seen them go deep several times in the postseason but ultimately bow out to clubs with elite stars up front. The Stars are built on scoring by committee and I’m just not sure if their committee is strong enough in order to compensate for the lack of star power. I also think their defense needs a boost, particularly on the right side.

_____

Which supposed Stanley Cup contender(s) are we most worried about?

Recent Daily Faceoff Roundtables