Buyer Beware: Which UFAs might get too much money and term this summer?

Every offseason, there’s always a bunch of unrestricted free agents who sign deals that are met with an immediate response of, “That certainly won’t age well.” It’s the nature of the market, as teams are constantly getting into bidding wars over the best players available, especially players coming off breakout seasons, because buyers can add them without giving up any assets – except for arguably the most important asset in today’s NHL in cap space, but it’s never seen that way on Day 1 of free agency.

This year’s crop should be no different, especially since the market is one of the weakest we’ve seen in years. Sure, we don’t see John Tavares or Artemi Panarin or Johnny Gaudreau every year anyway, but this class in particular has a significant lack of star talent. When Tyler Bertuzzi lead the way and one of the top assets in Damon Severson gets snapped up weeks before July 1, you know you’re in for a weaker class.

That means we’ll likely see even more contracts at too much money and too much term, as teams will get into even more desperate bidding wars to get those few players suitable for top minutes, and then if they lose, they’ll likely overpay what remains just to try and fill the void they have down the middle, on the blueline, or in net. There are plenty of candidates, so let’s take a look at some of the names I could see getting a bit more than they’re worth – and why.

Ivan Barbashev

Beware: Playoff recency bias and positional usage

Barbashev appears to be due for a big pay day in free agency due to his almost point-per-game pace in the playoffs on the Vegas Golden Knights’ current run, a big step up from his play in St. Louis this season. That makes him a prime candidate to get paid a bit too much in free agency, but that also feels like a layup reason to be cautious, so I’ll bring up another important factor.

One big reason why Barbashev has seen a lot more success in Vegas than in St. Louis, outside of Vegas being a much better team, is that Barbashev primarily played center in St. Louis, while he’s shifted to the wing since joining Vegas. It’s made a clear difference, and I wonder if teams will overlook that and overpay to have him be a top-two center for them, especially with how weak the center market is. The Vancouver Canucks are paying dearly for that same situation with J.T. Miller, and while Barbashev likely won’t get $8 million+ on the market, it should be a warning sign that just because he can play center doesn’t mean that’s the best place for him.

Tyler Bertuzzi

Beware: Health

In terms of age and quality, Bertuzzi may be the best player on the market. When he’s played, he’s shown to be a capable top-six forward, and at 28, you can still get some good years out of him, especially compared to the other big names on the market this year. The fact that he’ll be one of the best options on the market in a weak field already is a big sign that an overpayment is coming, but there are much bigger concerns for him.

The biggest issue for Bertuzzi is that he has struggled to stay healthy throughout his entire career. Only once in his NHL career has he played every game in a season, and that came in the slightly shortened 2019-20 season where the Detroit Red Wings only played 71. He’s never played 82 games, and he hasn’t hit 70 since the pandemic, with his career high being 73. It’s tough to commit to that kind of inconsistent health for a long-term deal, but as one of the best options on the market coming off a strong stint with the Boston Bruins, there’s going to be teams that will, and there’s a solid chance it won’t end well.

J.T. Compher

Beware: Weak market

Only three centers currently slated for unrestricted free agency had more points than J.T. Compher’s 52 during the regular season – Patrice Bergeron, Max Domi, and David Krejci. Bergeron and Krejci may as well not be on the market, because they’ll most likely either retire or return to Boston, so that currently makes Compher the second-highest-scoring center on the market. For a player coming off a career year, that’s excellent news for Compher, but bad news for teams that need center depth next season, especially the Bruins if the aforementioned Bergeron and Krejci retire.

Now, there are at least some signs that Compher can sustain this, or at least not drop off a cliff. His 1.85 points per game this season isn’t far off from his prior four seasons where he had 1.67, so this spike in point production more has to do with playing 500+ minutes more than his previous career high due to the depth the Colorado Avalanche lost in the offseason and the injuries they dealt with all season. That at least means he can be a capable No. 2 center for whoever signs him, but the lack of a market means there could be a strong bidding war for him, causing his cap hit and term to inflate beyond what he should probably be making.

Max Domi

Beware: Weak market and recency bias

As mentioned with Compher, Domi was the one UFA center above him in scoring who didn’t play for the Bruins, so he could also see a big spike in market value as one of the best centers in free agency this season. He had an excellent season with the tanking Chicago Blackhawks which alone could have given him a solid pay day in free agency this year, but his play during the Dallas Stars’ run to the Western Conference Final will likely give him an even bigger boost, especially since he’s played a majority of the season in a top-six role. Teams in need of center depth are going to be all over him to try and get one of the better options before there’s nothing left.

That said, this isn’t the only time Domi has had a really good season with lots of promise. In 2018-19, he surprised a lot of people with his 72-point effort in Montreal, but the fact that it’s been the odd season here and there that he’s excelled in is a slight red flag. Some teams could look at that season and this year and think that’s the player he is and pay him as such, when in reality he’s a fine middle-six center. Add in the fact that he plays with that “edge” that teams covet, and a bidding war certainly isn’t out of the question, and that always leads to a player making a bit more than they probably should.

Radko Gudas

Beware: Playoff recency bias

Players coming off deep playoff runs right before they head into free agency always seem to do well on the market, and Gudas will likely see that come to fruition this season, especially considering his style of play. He’s that ideal “playoff defenseman” that is super physical, knows how to get into the heads of his opponents, and also knows how to walk the line of being physical but not taking too many penalties (although that narrative has gone away quickly in the Cup Final). Not only that, but despite his physical reputation, he’s also been a really good play-driver for most of his career, so if you put him in the right role, he’d be an excellent fit on a playoff team, just as we’re seeing with the Florida Panthers.

The problem is that when most teams watch a player like Gudas on a team like the Panthers, they assume that a bottom pair defenseman on a good team means they can be a top-four defenseman on their team, but that isn’t always the case. Gudas has been a strong top-four defenseman in the past, but a 33 year old defenseman with a physical edge usually starts to see a decline in their play if they haven’t already. Considering the boost in term and salary this playoff run has likely given him, there’s a lot of signs that this may not age well.

Martin Jones

Beware: Recency bias

Jones is an interesting situation because unlike most of the players on here, his numbers don’t exactly jump out at you. The .887 save percentage alone should be enough to chase off any big deals, especially because it’s the worst save percentage he’s ever posted in a full season in a career where he’s only posted a save percentage above .910 four times,and hasn’t gone above .900 in the past five seasons.

However, there is one stat the jumps out, and that’s his record of 27-13-3. It really shouldn’t be the stat that sells you on Jones, especially considering how wins as a goalie stat has proven to be mostly meaningless, but we’ve seen how general managers value goalie wins based on Vezina Trophy voting in the past, so Jones will likely get suitors because of it. This feels like another Carter Hutton situation for me, where a team in desperate need of a goalie takes a chance on him as a starter or a 1A/1B situation and gives him a bit more term than he probably should have, especially at this age. He wouldn’t be the worst on a one-year deal as a backup like he’s been the past couple of seasons, but any more term just increases the risk of him returning to what he’s shown us to be throughout his career.

Alex Killorn

Beware: Term

Time and time again, we’ve seen teams tripping over themselves to try and sign players who have a couple Stanley Cups to their name, especially if they come with a bit of physical edge to them. They’re that prototypical “guy who knows how to win” and teams always getting into bidding wars over them, often giving them a bit more money and a year or two more on term than they probably should.

Killorn will be one of the big names on this year’s market as one of the cap casualties in Tampa Bay, and while he still has some effectiveness to his game, his style of play ages out quickly, and he’ll be 34 at the start of next season. He’d be perfect on a one or two year deal, but any longer and it’s a deal he’ll likely age out of quickly, especially since a season where he set career-highs with 27 goals, 37 assists, and 64 points will probably give him a higher AAV on the market.

Joonas Korpisalo

Beware: Recency bias

Korpisalo’s career has seen him struggle to be consistently good, and that alone should be a big red flag to whichever team decides to pursue him to solve their goaltending problems, but every now and then he has a good season to make people forget the inconsistencies. In 2015-16, he had a strong rookie season on a struggling Blue Jackets team, giving them some .920 goaltending behind a struggling Sergei Bobrovsky. In 2019-20, he worked well in tandem with Elvis Merzlikins, and had one of the best stretches of goaltending we’ve seen in the playoff bubble, shutting down the Toronto Maple Leafs and setting the NHL record for saves in a game in the 5OT Game 1 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning.

And in 2022-23, he played well enough on a tanking Blue Jackets team to gain trade value and got shipped to Los Angeles to provide them steadier goaltending than Cal Petersen and Jonathan Quick. There are a lot of teams that might sell themselves on thinking he can do the same for their team, but they’ll overlook the role that a quality Kings defensive structure played in making that happen. Korpisalo provided them with average starting goaltending, which was enough to make them seemingly unbeatable at times, compared to Petersen and Quick being two of the worst goalies in the league last season. If Korpisalo can be a decent goaltender, he wouldn’t be the worst bet on the market, but his career has proven that these good seasons, not the bad seasons, are the anomalies. If he gets signed to a worse defensive team thinking he’ll solve their goaltending issues, they will likely be disappointed.

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