Whose trade value changed at the 4 Nations Face-Off?

Credit: Feb 12, 2025; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; [Imagn Images direct customers only] Team Sweden forward Elias Pettersson (40) looks on in warm-up before the game against Team Canada during a 4 Nations Face-Off ice hockey game at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images

Time to resume to NHL’s stretch run. With less than two weeks until March 7, we’ll continue delivering at least one Trade Deadline story per day on Daily Faceoff.

Next up: we examine who, if anyone, changed their trade value with their performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off, with some help from SportContract’s data.

2025 NHL Trade Deadline Countdown: 11 days

A year ago, few of us would’ve imagined the 4 Nations Face-Off providing any insight toward someone’s trade value. It was a made-up event between four countries, expected to feature intensity somewhere between an All-Star Game and World Cup. But once Canada, Finland, Sweden and USA instantly showed their passion, it was clear the stakes were high. That meant the tournament offered some insight into performances under pressure.

It would be a stretch to say this event was chock full of realistic trade candidates – but a noteworthy amount of participants sit on Frank Seravalli’s latest Trade Targets board. A few of those names and more are worth discussing here.

Joel Armia, Montreal Canadiens

We know what we get from Armia at this stage of career: a big body and penalty killer who isn’t a total zero in terms of offensive upside. He came more or less as advertised for Finland, suiting up for two games in a checking role, playing 10:36 per contest. He did take a couple minor penalties, which negated his ability to help on the PK a bit. He was also caved in at 5-on-5. But it came on a depleted roster facing off against the best teams in the world. We understand who Armia is; nothing he did changed that despite the quiet showing.

Erik Karlsson, Pittsburgh Penguins

Karlsson’s deployment with Sweden gave us a hint at what he could be for a contender: less of a workhorse than he used to be, playing only about 18 minutes a night, but still an offensive weapon and PP1 quarterback. He tied for the team lead with three points in four games. Setting aside the hurdle of salary retention for two more years on the $10 million remaining of his cap hit: he showed he still has plenty in the tank at 34.

Brock Nelson, New York Islanders

Nelson is the top center on the trade market right now, albeit it’s still possible the Isles re-sign him. The 4 Nations didn’t really reflect what he brings to an NHL team because he played fourth-line minutes; he’s a top-six forward in his everyday life. That said, his impact was relatively minimal. He didn’t record a single point, and USA had an expected goal differential of 43.3 percent with Nelson on the ice at 5-on-5. So the tourney did serve as a reminder that Nelson isn’t going to be a star for his new team, more just a complementary addition – and an expensive one at that.

Gustav Nyquist, Nashville Predators

Nyquist is the lone player on this list to score a goal at the 4 Nations, believe it or not. He nabbed the equalizer in a (meaningless) game Sweden ended up winning vs. the U.S. to close out the round-robin. Nyquist was relegated to a checking role but did an effective job in his limited duty, with a 5-on-5 xGF% of 53.6 percent. Even though the Preds have flopped horribly this season, Nyquist is a year removed from a 75-point campaign and reminded us in the tournament that his smarts make him deployable even in a depth role.

Colton Parayko, St. Louis Blues

Parayko’s size and strength showed up in the tournament’s most talked about moment: the three fights in nine seconds to open Canada-USA in the round-robin, during which he ragdolled J.T. Miller. But for the most part, Parayko was one of Canada’s weak points, looking a bit overmatched and indecisive with the puck. For a monster of a man, he doesn’t play a punishing game when he’s actually defending, and he’s not much of a goal scorer despite his booming shot. The shot attempts were 82-53 for Canada’s opponents when Parayko was on the ice at 5-on-5. Not only did he probably lower his stock for the 2026 Olympics, but any NHL team kicking the tires on five more seasons of Parayko after this one at a $6.5 million AAV should study this tournament as a reminder he’s not a top-pair horse.

Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks

Pettersson is the headliner for this discussion, naturally. He’s struggled all season, and the hope was that trading J.T. Miller and ending Vancouver’s dressing room rift would unlock Pettersson, as would playing for Sweden in a best-on-best tourney. Pettersson ghosted with zero points. The Swedes did have a positive expected goal differential when he was out there, but when you’re a 100-point scorer and open the tournament between Filip Forsberg and Adrian Kempe, zero points is inexcusable. Given Pettersson’s $11.6 million AAV, he didn’t do his trade value any favors with the no-show.

Mikko Rantanen, Carolina Hurricanes

Rantanen played more than 20 minutes a game for Finland and had one point to show for it. He’s also been a somewhat awkward fit with Carolina so far, post-trade. It’s been a strange transition from superstar and future Hall of Famer a couple months ago to having everyone scratching their heads about his value at the moment, and the 4 Nations didn’t quell concerns about his post-Colorado fit. It’s possible he changes teams again in the next 11 days.

Rickard Rakell, Pittsburgh Penguins

Rakell was one of many Swedes to get taken down by a flu bug during the 4 Nations, and he missed a game as a result. We thus can’t judge him too harshly on a pair of scoreless games. The larger sample is the huge comeback season he’s enjoying with the Pens.

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