Why the Toronto Maple Leafs should keep Michael Bunting benched for Game 5

Credit: Michael Bunting (© Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports)

Ever been to a diehard Toronto Maple Leaf fan’s house around playoff time?

It’s shrine city, Blue and White memorabilia everywhere. That part is standard for any fans in any sport, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a more superstitious fan base. Sit in this chair. Wear this jersey. Rub this bobblehead. True story: after Toronto’s embarrassing Game 1 home loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning last week, my father-in-law removed every single piece of Leafs paraphernalia from his basement man cave, from jerseys to signed photos to one of those miniature Stanley Cups they used to hand out in cases of Labatt Blue. He then refused to watch Game 2 and, after the Leafs won, decided (a) it meant he could no longer watch ANY games until Toronto lost and (b) could not return any of his Leaf decorations to the man cave.

This is the mentality of arguably the most jaded, beaten down group of supporters in any major North American pro sport, afflicted with a 56-year Stanley Cup drought that predates expansion by a few months. Any perceived morsel of juju that can create an imagined advantage must be explored, which is a highly ironic stance to take given absolutely nothing has worked for this franchise in clutch situations for more than half a century.

Still, when things briefly are going right within the confines of a playoff series, it’s understandable if Leaf fans don’t want to touch anything. Especially when, suddenly in this first-round matchup against the Lightning, the string of good fortune has stretched beyond just a game. The Leafs, the team known for choking away everything, won Game 3 in overtime on the road after tying it with a minute left. They inverted the infamous ‘It WAS 4-1’ refrain in Game 4, scoring three times in back half of the third period before walking away with a jaw-dropping 5-4 overtime victory. Even coach Sheldon Keefe said after Game 4 that something “feels different” with this year’s group, which has received important contributions from the Cup-winning veterans they added at the Trade Deadline in Ryan O’Reilly and Luke Schenn.

Leaf Nation knows better than to Plan the Parade ™ with a 3-1 series lead, however. This team is only two years removed from blowing one to a Montreal Canadiens team that had finished with the 18^th-best record in the NHL. The diehards know the good vibes could darken at any moment. So from an emotional standpoint, I could hardly blame any of them who believes Keefe should not tinker with a lineup that has given Toronto its second three-game playoff winning streak in 21 years.

And that includes keeping Michael Bunting in the press box.

The left winger is due back in the series after serving his three-game suspension for interference and an illegal check to the head of Lightning defenseman Erik Cernak, who has still not returned to action for Tampa. The hit was an unforced blunder, a moment in which Bunting straight-up lost his composure, and while the Leafs were already down 4-2 in the game at that moment, they have since shown that a two-goal deficit is not insurmountable. It’s not a massive stretch to say Bunting cost them Game 1 or at least the chance to fight back in Game 1.

A week ago, it would’ve been an automatic assumption that Bunting would rejoin the lineup in Game 5. While not quite a core player, he’s been a lineup fixture for the past two seasons, primarily playing on a scoring line. He has back-to-back regular seasons of 23 goals. He has enough skill to play with anyone on the team, including Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, and blends that skill with an abrasive, agitating game that makes him a chore to play against. And yet: his replacement for Games 2-4, rookie Matthew Knies, was so impressive that Keefe has indicated he won’t be coming out. And during his Tuesday media availability, Keefe would even not commit yet to Bunting returning to take the place of someone else, be it Zach Aston-Reese or Sam Lafferty.

“So with Bunting being available, obviously he’s a very good player. He’s a good option for us because he’s a good player for us,” Keefe said on a Zoom call. “It’s not as easy or as simple as a decision as it may have been earlier in the series. We’re at a different time. So, we’ll take our time here and sort through it. We’ve got a group of guys that have played real hard.”

Some may feel the idea of keeping Bunting out is galaxy braining, that treating an established top-nine forward as unworthy of even top-12 work in Game 5 would feel like giving in to the superstitious Leaf fans who don’t want to touch anything. But you know what? I’m tossing logic out the window this time and siding with the spiritual. I said going into this series that Dubas had done the same at the deadline, prioritizing intangibles over pure numbers, and something is working in this series for Toronto. The Leafs have shown remarkable composure and pushback during situations in which they are known to fold. In my mind, the last thing they should do is bring back the one player who has quite spectacularly exhibited the absence of composure so far in this series.

It’s a matter of what you gain versus what you lose by adding Bunting. Do you need offense? Bunting isn’t part of Toronto’s top power-play unit, and the Leafs haven’t had trouble scoring in this series, pumping an NHL-best 4.75 goals per game past Andrei Vasilevskiy so far – 5.33 in three games without Bunting. Do you need defensive work from your forward group? No forward on the team graded out worse in on-ice shot attempts against, expected goals against and scoring chances against per 60 at 5-on-5 this season than Bunting. Need grit? Bunting starts skirmishes but doesn’t finish them. Need to stay out of the box? Bunting ranked second among all NHL players in penalties taken per 60 minutes this season. Whether you believe the officials are out to get him or not, the penalties are happening. They’re a problem.

So while his goal-scoring and skill are clearly worthy of top-nine duty, if we’re keeping score, Bunting has graded out as the worst defensive forward on the team, the least-disciplined player on the team and, in general, the player Toronto can trust the least to keep his cool in a series that has run very hot. I would argue he brings more downside than upside to the lineup right now. Even if you park him on the fourth line, what’s to say he doesn’t do something dumb even in 10 minutes of ice time?

If the Leafs lose Game 5 and need a shakeup, they should entertain getting Bunting back in there. But otherwise, playing him feels dangerous right now. Especially when the current group has a certain magic going in his absence.

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Why the Toronto Maple Leafs should keep Michael Bunting benched for Game 5

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