Why the Leafs’ 2025 Trade Deadline is the most important of the Matthews/Marner era
Ask Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving his opinion on making big mid-season moves over the years, and he provides variations of one consistent answer: he’ll never trade just for the sake of trading or because of external pressure. His mantra shows in his record. His biggest deadline acquisition was Tyler Toffoli in 2022 while running the Calgary Flames. Treliving typically fortifies his depth with checking forwards and big stay-at-home defensemen.
And yet, as we inch toward Friday’s Trade Deadline, there’s cause for Treliving to become more aggressive – not necessarily in terms of the player archetypes he pursues, but in terms of accepting the prices in what appears to be a seller’s market and overpaying to fill Toronto’s roster holes. The Leafs don’t need another game-breaking scorer; success in the playoffs will always come down to whether their numerous existing game-breakers deliver. Even their offensive depth on the wings has been better lately. But this team clearly needs a capable third-line center and an upgrade on defense. It shouldn’t be one or the other; Treliving needs to go all-in and make sure he acquires both.
The conditions specific to 2024-25 make this year’s Trade Deadline arguably the most important in the Auston Matthews / Mitch Marner era. Here’s why.
The Leafs can actually win the Atlantic Division
For the first time since, probably, the 2020-21 North Division experiment, the Leafs control their own destiny for top seeding entering the stretch run of an NHL season. Over the past three winters, they found themselves comfortably confined to the No. 2 or No. 3 playoff spot in the Atlantic Division, preparing well in advance for one or at most two possible opponents. Tampa Bay or Boston; Tampa Bay and no one else; Boston or Florida. The Leafs were guaranteed a tough out in Round 1 all three times, and the suspense mostly came down to whether they could secure home ice for those series. Despite holding the NHL’s fifth-best points percentage over that span, Toronto never finished within seven points of first place…
…Until now? They currently hold down first place in the Atlantic, tied with the Panthers but holding a game in hand, two days before the NHL Trade Deadline. After years of being labelled as the cursed team that couldn’t catch a break with its Round 1 draw, Toronto has a real shot to be a heavy favorite in its opening-round series this spring.
Of course, a plum matchup hasn’t always stopped the Leafs from flopping. They still haven’t healed from blowing a 3-1 series lead to the Montreal Canadiens in 2021. And, if the playoffs started today, the Leafs would draw a Columbus Blue Jackets squad that has given them fits of late. But there’s no denying the Leafs are positioned better for success than they’ve been in several years. And that’s just one reason Treliving needs to swashbuckle with his dealmaking in the coming days.
The Eastern Conference looks weaker than normal
If the season ended today, we’d likely see the Hart, Art Ross, Norris, Rocket Richard, Vezina and perhaps even the Calder Trophy go to Western Conference players. The league’s most dominant talents reside there right now: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Connor Hellebuyck and more. On top of lacking star power compared to their Western counterparts, many of the supposed top-dog teams in the East also have warts. The Carolina Hurricanes have one of lowest team save percentages in the NHL. The New Jersey Devils hold their breath awaiting news on Jack Hughes’ injury. The Lightning badly need another top-six forward.
If the Leafs make the right moves to address their needs, particularly when it comes to cleaning up their middling 5-on-5 scoring chance prevention and penalty kill, they could enter the postseason challenging the Washington Capitals for the best team on paper. Or at least, that appeared to be the case a week ago when the Panthers were ailing without Matthew Tkachuk. They’ve since acquired Seth Jones for their D-corps and placed Tkachuk on LTIR, setting themselves up to make another major add. Translation: the arms race is underway, and Toronto must answer if it wants to win the division.
(Obvious) uncertainty with Toronto’s pending UFAs
It was true before the season started and it’s just as true now: with Mitch Marner and John Tavares uncertain to return, the Leafs need to treat this season with urgency. I’m actually confident both will re-sign; even as Marner’s AAV presumably climbs north of $12 million over even $13 million, Tavares’ will come way down from $11 million, so their combined cap hit may end up lower than it is right now – with the salary cap also spiking to $95.5 million. At the same time: nothing is guaranteed, and the rising cap will also equip rival teams to bid more. It’s conceivable that 2024-25 marks the final ride for Toronto’s core as we know it, so Treliving needs to place his best possible formation of chess pieces on the board for the playoffs.
The Leafs finally have the goaltending to go deep
So far in 2024-25, 52 goalies have played 20 or more games. Among them, Anthony Stolarz sits second only to Logan Thompson in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, and Joseph Woll sits 12th. The Leafs have two elite goaltenders, and it’s worth noting (a) Stolarz was second in the same stat last season and (b) Woll was inhumanly good in the playoffs for Toronto before getting hurt in the 2023-24 postseason, so there’s reason to expect continued excellence. Unlike last year, the Leafs aren’t depending on one goalie to be their savior, so they’re set up to go save for save with any opponent they draw in Round 1. That elevates this team’s ceiling for the playoffs, and it’s all the more reason for Treliving to swing for the fences. With the right couple of tweaks – say, a Scott Laughton or even a Brock Nelson up front, a Brandon Carlo or Rasmus Ristolainen on the back end – the Leafs would have a shot at a deep run, past chokejobs be damned.
The window to sell high on their top prospects may soon shrink
I see two ways to perceive a perennial contender’s prospect pool when it has reached the “we’ve been too good too long to have many blue chippers anymore “ phase: One is to cling to what you have, lest you completely gut your system. That means deeming Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten untouchable. The other is to understand that, while players like those are your best prospects, that doesn’t make them elite relative to what the rest of the league has. Cowan has blossomed into a dominant junior player and made the Leafs look brilliant for reaching on him in 2023, but his flops at the World Juniors have left weird impressions, small sample sizes be damned. What if he becomes another Nick Robertson, a supernova OHL player whom the Leafs hold for so long that his sell-high window passes? As for Minten, he clearly has a high floor as an intelligent checking center, but the ceiling doesn’t appear to be there.
If it means surrendering one of both of those two in the name of doing everything you can to chase a Stanley Cup, you have to consider it. It’s not like we’re talking about Ivan Demidov and Ryan Leonard, here, with all due respect to Cowan and Minten. The former ranked 35th on my colleague Steven Ellis’ Top 75 NHL affiliated prospects list when the season started, and the latter didn’t make the cut at all.
The time for measured behavior has come and gone. Treliving needs to shoot his shot. The Leafs have a real chance to reach the Eastern Conference Final for the first time in 23 years – with the right augmentations. Their team defense must improve. A third-line center and middle-pair blueliner will remedy that.
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