Can Conn Smythe winner Ryan O’Reilly regain his prowess as Captain Clutch?

Credit: © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

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We’re exactly two weeks away from the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline. We’ve been counting down at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story every day leading up to Deadline Day.

Today we’re going to break down St. Louis Blues captain Ryan O’Reilly.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 14 days

RYAN O’REILLY
Center, St. Louis Blues
Shoots: Left
Age: 32
Height: 6’1″ | Weight: 216 lbs
Cap Hit: $7.5 million
Term: Pending UFA
Stats: 40 GP, 12 goals, 7 assists, 19 points, 18:24 avg TOI
Career: 14th season (Colorado, Buffalo, St. Louis), 978 GP, 252 goals, 691 points, 19:37 avg TOI

Archetype and Ideal Role

Clutch Player. Matchup line center, second unit of both power play and penalty kill.

O’Reilly began the season as the No. 6 ranked Clutch Player as part of our Daily Faceoff Archetype Ranking series. “Clutch” is code word for Selke, another way to define a player absolutely critical for team success. Clutch players don’t fit neatly into any box. They aren’t shooters or playmakers. They’re not power forwards. They’re good at everything. Clutch is a catch-all basket. They’re the most well-rounded skaters in the league.

O’Reilly has been that in St. Louis. He not only won the Selke Trophy in 2019 but also captured the Conn Smythe Trophy as Stanley Cup playoff MVP. However, his game has taken a hit this season, in the midst of the worst statistical season of his career. The question we’ll attempt to answer in this story is why.

Scouting Report

O’Reilly will bring a championship pedigree where he is going. Period. Full stop. You don’t get your name etched on the Conn Smythe without knowing how to get things done when it matters most. How does he rise to the occasion? O’Reilly brings a tenacious playing style coupled with elite hockey sense to make a big impact at both ends of the ice.

O’Reilly is revered because he works. He effectively and relentlessly hunts pucks. He doesn’t quit on the play. He also plays just physically enough to separate defenders from pucks and kickstart the offense. His tenacity also makes him effective below the dots. Coupled with his ability to absorb contact and continue to drive play forward, his overall work rate makes him a reliable contributor off the cycle, where he can make small area plays to linemates for quality looks, or orchestrate a give-and-go for a scoring chance or second chance himself.

O’Reilly understands his game and has a strong sense of how he fits into the action. He knows his strength is to dish early and get to space for looks off the rush, which he does well. Off the puck when his team has possession, he knows where to go to be dangerous. And while he doesn’t have an elite shot, he relies on an incredibly strong stick to get contested shots off with accuracy, making him a threat from in-tight.

Lastly, O’Reilly is excellent in the faceoff dot. At 51 percent this season and 56 percent last season, O’Reilly is in a very small category of automatic choices from coaches to take big draws late in games. That will either help protect a lead late or give his team a chance for a last-second quick strike, a valuable asset for any coach to have in his arsenal. That will be particularly important as teams attempt to match lines in the playoffs. His ability to win big draws, plus his commitment in the defensive zone, make him an ideal matchup center for any team looking to make a deep playoff run.

Buyer Beware

O’Reilly has never been considered a burner, but his pace has noticeably slowed this season. If your game hinges on your ability to play hard, force turnovers and get to the net – and you have a hard time getting in quickly enough to force turnovers – that can be problematic. There are few ways to properly quantify the drop-off in skating and speed. But given how hard he plays and with such compete, O’Reilly has always been a player who draws far more penalties than he takes. Last season, O’Reilly drew 25 penalties and only took six minor penalties. This season, he has drawn five and been whistled for five. That relates directly back to him not getting where he needs to go on-time as he has in the past.

Also typically a stout defender in the middle of the ice, O’Reilly has struggled in the defensive zone as well. Is it the lack of pace catching up with him? Perhaps. Is it his linemates? Maybe. He’s spent the majority of his ice time playing with Josh Leivo and Brandon Saad. Neither player is known for their ability to lock down opponents or push the pace. He really seems to miss David Perron.

Is it just that Father Time remains undefeated? That’s what it looks like. He’s played a lot of hard minutes. The all-out style that has made O’Reilly so successful tends to wear players down. With how hard he works, and all of those reps, players like O’Reilly traditionally have a hard time in their 30s. See: Jonathan Toews. When their legs go, the decline can be rapid. Maybe that is what we’re seeing with O’Reilly.

Then again, it’s possible that the situation in St. Louis has contributed to his season. We’ve discussed many times during the Deadline Countdown series the mental side of athletic performance, and the pressure of a contract year and trying to put a struggling Blues team on his shoulders could be wearing on him.

Either way, any acquiring team needs to understand that at this stage of his career, O’Reilly is probably best suited to play with wingers who can skate and transport the puck to clear space for him. That way, he can use his intelligence to find soft spots in the offensive zone and in the defensive zone, he can remain in the play longer knowing that his wingers will be moving up the ice.

Potential Fits

Carolina Hurricanes: We know that the Hurricanes have interest in Timo Meier on the wing, but the Canes have an obvious need for a proven center behind Sebastian Aho. Jordan Staal is perfect in his current role. Keep him there. Put O’Reilly in the 2C spot. Alas, rentals of O’Reilly’s nature tend to run counter to Carolina’s business model unless the price drops to a bargain left.
Minnesota Wild: The Wild are another team with a clear need in the middle of the ice. But GM Bill Guerin is still in wait-and-see mode with this group, so they’ll be patient monitoring the market for O’Reilly and let that settle before making any decisions. Minnesota’s interest will all depend on the price.
Colorado Avalanche: The Avs have yet to effectively replace Nazem Kadri. Could a reunion be in the works? I’d tend to bet against it based on the circumstances with which O’Reilly already exited Colorado, but crazier things have happened.
Dallas Stars: The Stars are arguably the best team in the Western Conference. They could use a boost down the middle to take some of the heavier minutes and lifting off of rookie Wyatt Johnston. O’Reilly fits with a veteran presence as Dallas gears up for a deep playoff run, and he comes with no strings attached for next year.
Los Angeles Kings: The Kings are a lower-case fit. Any team with Anze Kopitar and Philip Danault anchoring center is well positioned for success. But at the right price, they could slot O’Reilly into the 3C hole and have an incredibly formidable 1-2-3 punch down the middle.

Comparable Trade Returns

Floor: Carter to Pittsburgh

April 11, 2021
To Pittsburgh: Jeff Carter
To Los Angeles: 2022 3rd Round Pick (Lucas Edmonds), 2023 3rd Round Pick, 50 percent retained

Carter didn’t have the Selke or the Conn Smythe, and was certainly older at the time of the trade and his game was in decline, but still had Stanley Cup pedigree and was a critical cog in the Kings’ Cup wins.

Mid-Range: Rakell to Pittsburgh

March 21, 2022
To Pittsburgh: Rickard Rakell
To Anaheim: 2022 2nd Round Pick (Tristan Luneau), Calle Clang, Zach Aston-Reese, Dominik Simon, 35 percent retained

While not the same position or age, Rakell was a big name deadline rental last year nonetheless. So it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, but the price – a 2nd Round pick and top goaltending prospect – feels like solid value for a declining vet with experience.

Ceiling: Giroux to Florida

March 19, 2022
To Florida: Claude Giroux, German Rubtsov, Connor Bunnaman, 2024 5th Round Pick
To Philadelphia: 2024 1st Round Pick, 2023 3rd Round Pick, Owen Tippett

Looking at what the Blues received for Tarasenko, you can almost take it to the bank that this is similar to the initial ask by Blues GM Doug Armstrong. However, this is probably the absolute ceiling on what Armstrong can expect given O’Reilly’s struggles this season.

Summary

The work ethic and leadership that has filled his trophy case makes O’Reilly an intoxicating deadline addition for a team. He has the intangibles that NHL GMs mostly dream about. However, O’Reilly is probably best suited for third-line center duty, or in a sheltered second line role. His compete level is admirable, but his pace has fallen off, to the point where he doesn’t consistently get to the areas of the ice he used to own. There is no doubt O’Reilly can help on a quest for a Stanley Cup, but proper expectations need to be set.

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